Will Russia invade Ukraine again? (Yes, yes they did)

[oversteve]

meanwhile russia is shooting at the dam causing flood in residential areas ...

Russia strikes Ukrainian dam in city of Kryvyi Rih, triggering floods

Evacuations are underway in two districts of Kryvyi Rih city after Russia struck a nearby dam with eight cruise missiles, causing the Inhulets River to burst its banks in just the latest revenge strike on civilians.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[DiezelMonster]

It sounds like there is increasing dissent among Russian politicians, they are now currently calling for Poutine to resign. I doubt he cares other than probably having them killed. This is interesting though, if true.

 

[sleewell]

why shouldnt ukraine just keep going into russia at this point? the fact that russia invaded their country for no reason and slaughtered, tortured, and raped so many innocent people and then turn and fled when defeated i think if i was ukrainian i would be of the mindset that stopping at the old border was no longer sufficient.

 

[nightflameauto]

why shouldnt ukraine just keep going into russia at this point? the fact that russia invaded their country for no reason and slaughtered, tortured, and raped so many innocent people and then turn and fled when defeated i think if i was ukrainian i would be of the mindset that stopping at the old border was no longer sufficient.

I would think one argument would be the already stressful situation of needing resources to rebuild at home would be multiplied exponentially the longer the war drags on and the further from home the Ukranian troops go. Regardless of how much "support" in money and arms they receive from the outside world, it's still war and war, no matter how justified, sucks both resources and morale, even when it's highly justified.

 

[bostjan]

why shouldnt ukraine just keep going into russia at this point? the fact that russia invaded their country for no reason and slaughtered, tortured, and raped so many innocent people and then turn and fled when defeated i think if i was ukrainian i would be of the mindset that stopping at the old border was no longer sufficient.

I mean, yeah, in a dream world where right makes might, this would be the case. However, the last time someone invaded Russia, it ended up literally being suicide. With summer being over, and Russian winter looming close, it'd just be crazy.

Unless, if, by "Russia," you mean pre-2014 Ukrainian territory, then, well, if Ukraine continues on her military winning streak, I'm sure it'll be a thought. I could see that, in the case where Russia gets booted out of Crimea, Putin could face some actual pressure to come back down to Earth and negotiate in good faith to end the conflict. But but but... let's be realistic- Putin in the moment believes that he is invincible, and his sycophants are telling him that things are going much better with the "special military operation" than they actually are. Putin has also made up such crazy justifications about Zelensky being an anti-Semitic Jewish Nazi cannibal, that he can't back down without looking like a pushover, an ethical bandwaggoner, and a liar. This conflict will not likely end so long as Putin is in power. And the stupid useless UN can't impose anything against Russia despite the strong evidence of systematic war crimes, or else they are too afraid to make a stand against a nation that could potentially end the world.

 

[mmr007]

why shouldnt ukraine just keep going into russia at this point? the fact that russia invaded their country for no reason and slaughtered, tortured, and raped so many innocent people and then turn and fled when defeated i think if i was ukrainian i would be of the mindset that stopping at the old border was no longer sufficient.

Nuclear weapons. Soviet and Russian military doctrine calls for use of tactical nuclear weapons as a second resort not last resort. They don't see nuclear weapon use on the battlefield as crossing the Rubicon.

 

[oversteve]

We talked about problems iwth manpower in russia few days ago, here's an interesting video where Wagner mercenaries' chief Prigozhin recruits prisoners...

 

[mbardu]

We talked about problems iwth manpower in russia few days ago, here's an interesting video where Wagner mercenaries' chief Prigozhin recruits prisoners...

So what's the read on that?
Is it forced conscription for prisoners?
Is it "voluntary" but they get some kind of clemency in the unlikely event that they make it as "assault infantry" (*cough* cannon fodder *cough*)

 

[oversteve]

So what's the read on that?
Is it forced conscription for prisoners?
Is it "voluntary" but they get some kind of clemency in the unlikely event that they make it as "assault infantry" (*cough* cannon fodder *cough*)

My guess it's not forced, they might be promised to get the clemency but I don't see them getting any knowing how it's done in russia, probably the best case scenario for them is to keep on being mercenaries. That is if they survive the war

Meanwhile russian state tv strats telling ru forces had to withdraw from Kharkiv region due to NATO involvment....

 

[jaxadam]

Don’t. Don’t. Don’t.

 

[DrewH]

The summit with Xi, Modi, and some others didn't go all that well for ole Vlady. Losing militarily. Now losing support. I give it 6 months until he's disposed of in some way by his own people.

 

[Adieu]

Nuclear weapons. Soviet and Russian military doctrine calls for use of tactical nuclear weapons as a second resort not last resort. They don't see nuclear weapon use on the battlefield as crossing the Rubicon.

That is absolute nonsense. Even if Putler or his inner circle read or gave a damn about the doctrine (hint: they haven't and they don't).

Ukraine crossing at least one oblast' (think state) deep into genuine Russia proper will be absolutely essential to have something to negotiate with.

It's even more essential than retaking all of Ukraine's pre-2014 borders.

In fact, it's the ONLY way negotiation gets anywhere.

 

[Adieu]

For weak western cowards, there's of course also plagisrism of and reversing the old Putlerist DNR/LNR playbook (which he had created under a false flag and a false pretense with the then-goal of trading back to Ukraine as a negotiating chip for Crimea).

There's even a perfect target: Belgorod, Russia, which used to be Ukraine in 1918.

Well, *only* in 1918, but for a false flag negotiating token, why not?

There's even a few kidding-maybe-not-kidding "BNR" memes making the rounds.

Hell, there's even several versions of a flag for it.

 

[mmr007]

That is absolute nonsense. Even if Putler or his inner circle read or gave a damn about the doctrine (hint: they haven't and they don't).

Ukraine crossing at least one oblast' (think state) deep into genuine Russia proper will be absolutely essential to have something to negotiate with.

It's even more essential than retaking all of Ukraine's pre-2014 borders.

In fact, it's the ONLY way negotiation gets anywhere.

I'm not sure I understand the point you are trying to make. I am saying the reason no Ukrainian forces will go in Russia is because Russia doesn't view tactical nukes (ie battlefield nukes) as that big a deal. You seriously think Putin, former KGB, FSB and now last 20 years dictator and commander of Russian military doesn't understand russian doctrine on the permissibility of nukes when pressed? The guy who has his forces commit war crimes, poisons journalists and throws rivals out windows will ignore a lifetime of training that use of battlefield nukes is ok? No. he won't which is why the west will not support an invasion into russian territory.

 

[mbardu]

Meanwhile russian state tv strats telling ru forces had to withdraw from Kharkiv region due to NATO involvment....

Not really unexpected from Russian propaganda.
And sure, it's a pretty laughable stretch to paint NATO as "The backbone of Zelensky's army" like they do.
But that said, they are fighting NATO intelligence, NATO equipment and supplies.
Also, even though not linked to NATO chain of command, they are also fighting some actual Western units/foreigners on the ground.

All in all, it's far from the worst piece of disinformation they've been putting out. 5/10

 

[Adieu]

I'm not sure I understand the point you are trying to make. I am saying the reason no Ukrainian forces will go in Russia is because Russia doesn't view tactical nukes (ie battlefield nukes) as that big a deal. You seriously think Putin, former KGB, FSB and now last 20 years dictator and commander of Russian military doesn't understand russian doctrine on the permissibility of nukes when pressed? The guy who has his forces commit war crimes, poisons journalists and throws rivals out windows will ignore a lifetime of training that use of battlefield nukes is ok? No. he won't which is why the west will not support an invasion into russian territory.

1) They most certainly WILL have to enter Russia. And they actually have already, albeit just a few meters in to film themselves doing it.

2) It will NOT evoke a nuclear response.

3) What training? Putler was a chekist turned kleptocrat, not a hardline military dolt. And he's NOT ideological in the least.

 

[Adieu]

The whole dual "don't humiliate Putler OR ELSE" and "don't scare Putler OR ELSE" misconceptions are fucking hilarious.

Humiliation and fear are the only two languages he DOES understand and respect.

 

[thraxil]

I am saying the reason no Ukrainian forces will go in Russia is because Russia doesn't view tactical nukes (ie battlefield nukes) as that big a deal.

Veering slightly away from the topic, but I think (and for obvious reasons really, really hope I'm right) that the risk of tactical nuclear weapons is pretty insignificant now. Earlier, when Russia was going full on and meeting way more resistance than they expected, it was more likely. Putin expected and promised a fast victory and might've gone there to get it.

Now, though, we've had six months of the Russian army being stalled out, burning through troops and ammunition and just not looking like the world power that they were viewed as previously. Meanwhile oligarchs have fled Russia or lost major parts of their fortunes, sanctions and embargos are crushing them, and there are cracks showing in the internal propaganda machine. Putin hasn't been ousted yet and may not be any time soon. The Russian people might have a suspicion about how badly the war is going but still mostly buy into the propaganda. But the generals have access to all the information and know what's going on. If Putin ordered a nuclear strike, I think that would be the last straw and you'd see a military coup instead. It's one thing to risk pissing off NATO and the west when you think you can quickly win and consolidate your power. If there'd been a nuclear strike early in the war, the generals could at least see a chance that the rest of the world would be so shocked and unwilling to retaliate immediately that they could use that to their advantage to take hold of Ukraine and bet that everything would quiet back down. Now, even if the west didn't retaliate with nukes of their own, the generals see that there'd at least be massively increased support for Ukraine in terms of funding, weapons, and sanctions and it would make a difficult war even harder for them. They already know that they're not going to succeed and are trying to save face for themselves and Putin and hope that either they keep some of the Donbas and Crimea and/or EU has a rough enough winter without Russian oil that they pressure Ukraine to back down.

 

[DrewH]

1) They most certainly WILL have to enter Russia. And they actually have already, albeit just a few meters in to film themselves doing it.

No they won't. At least not in any meaningful sense. Ukraine gains nothing and risks everything by crossing the border with their troops. Right now, Ukraine's huge advantage is morale. They have a reason to fight and risk their lives. Russia does not. You start evoking feelings of defending the Russian homeland at all costs, and that turns quickly. Ukraine has Russia right where they want them. Putin is losing his grip on power. Ukraine just needs to stay the course. We need to stay the course in keeping them supplied. That happens and the Putin situation resolves itself in time.

 

[Adieu]

No they won't. At least not in any meaningful sense. Ukraine gains nothing and risks everything by crossing the border with their troops. Right now, Ukraine's huge advantage is morale. They have a reason to fight and risk their lives. Russia does not. You start evoking feelings of defending the Russian homeland at all costs, and that turns quickly. Ukraine has Russia right where they want them. Putin is losing his grip on power. Ukraine just needs to stay the course. We need to stay the course in keeping them supplied. That happens and the Putin situation resolves itself in time.

No, you need to threaten putler and/or take something from him to trade back.

Either counter-invasion or full-blown, no-holds-barred safari in his back yard with literally anybody who works for his goverment or has ever met him designated a legitimate target. And this would need to produce dozens or hundreds of casualties per day to work.