US Political Discussion: Trump Administration Edition (Rules in OP)

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. Thaeon

    Thaeon Cosmic Question Asker

    Messages:
    1,369
    Likes Received:
    670
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2008
    Location:
    San Antonio, TX
    I remember Superdelegates have a HUGE influence last time around and they had all already decided who they were collectively throwing their weight behind. Effectively sandbagging the candidate that polled better against Trump.
     
    vilk likes this.
  2. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

    Messages:
    21,431
    Likes Received:
    6,100
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    To clarify, I didn't mean literally "Joe the Plumber", I just meant that Democratic leaning and independent voters are frequently better informed than their single-issue conservative counterparts.

    As far as part two, I think the GOP has made an effort to tar Biden the same way they did Clinton in 2016 (which she made very easy BTW) and MOST of it hasn't had same stickiness as her issues. I'd still stop short of saying Biden doesn't have "interchangeable scandals" especially with regard to Democratic and Progressive perceptions, especially when you compare him to someone like Liz or Amy.

    I'll preemptively rebut Drew on this one, since I know he's going to point out that Hillary won the delegate count by more than the superdelegate difference. :lol:

    The most significant effect of Hillary locking up superdelegates was less to do with their votes and more to do with the fact they worked as surrogates for her for several months and perpetuated the idea that Sanders had no support inside the beltway. This likely drove apathy toward potential voters for Bernie (and reverberated into the general), along with the fact Hillary's name was on the tongue of all the people these people were already voting for. Can't be overstated.
     
    Thaeon and vilk like this.
  3. Thaeon

    Thaeon Cosmic Question Asker

    Messages:
    1,369
    Likes Received:
    670
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2008
    Location:
    San Antonio, TX
    I think that's my point. If the Superdelegates voted as their constituents did, rather than as unit things might actually have panned out a little closer. That's my problem with that system. The fact that they played HRC up so much and acted as her personal hype squad is a problem. They aren't there for that reason. They're there to be representatives of us. Not to persuade us. Persuade each other? Sure. Persuade the GOP? Definitely. They're there to represent our wishes.
     
    vilk likes this.
  4. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

    Messages:
    21,431
    Likes Received:
    6,100
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Someone posed the question to my local Congressman 2016 if he would endorse whoever his district voted for in the primary, and he unapologetically said 'No'. So it wasn't even subtle.

    EDIT: FWIW, i didn't vote for him for reelection and I never will after that.
     
    Thaeon likes this.
  5. Cynicanal

    Cynicanal SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    713
    Likes Received:
    645
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2018
    Agreed. Biden is doing a fantastic job at alienating young voters; cutting services used solely by old people that most younger people don't expect to ever receive (most of us realize that SS will be bankrupt by the time we retire) is an excellent move to appeal to this potential base that the Democratic Party seems to be adversarial to.
     
    JoshuaVonFlash, Thaeon and Randy like this.
  6. Thaeon

    Thaeon Cosmic Question Asker

    Messages:
    1,369
    Likes Received:
    670
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2008
    Location:
    San Antonio, TX
    I'm the tail end of Gen-X and I'll likely never see any of it...
     
  7. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    29,321
    Likes Received:
    4,849
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    To be fair, you understand WHY we have the supedelegate system we do today, right?

    I'd give a little more credence to the argument that superdelegates may have changed the "perception" of the race, but arguments I've seen that claim the reason Sanders lost Super Tuesday was because it was a dead heat in pledged delegates coming into that day but Clinton's advantage in superdelegates made her seem like the favorite, conveniently ignore the fact that Clinton basically swept all the Southern states that day, where Sanders had always polled well behind her, and if anything the national polling had tightened up somewhat as the race went along, despite Clinton's "perception" of winning due to the superdelegates. Could that have made a slight difference at the margin? Sure, and maybe it would have been enough to flip Massachusetts to Sanders, where Clinton eked out a win by less than a point. But, as a neighbor state to Bernie's home state of Vermont, Mass would have been on the short lists of states that would have been assumed to be potentially competitive as a prior without an ounce of polling info, and I don't think any credible argument could be made that the only reason Clinton won Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia was that people were looking at the delegate count and not stripping out superdelegates. She had too strong a demographic advantage there to begin with, and she never was not leading the pledged delegate race from that point forward.

    Beyond that, this is no longer the case in 2020. Superdelegates will not vote until the second round of voting, and to the best of my knowledge there are no pledged superdelegates out there now. So if you're saying the DNC is putting their thumb on the scale with superdelegates in 2020, I'm not really seeing any evidence of that, with the Biden campaign, this time around.

    You don't have to LIKE Biden. But I've seen nothing that suggests to me that in the 2020 DNC primary, barring a contested convention where no one gets a majority of delegates, the candidate with the most people voting for them will not be the one to win the nomination.

    Again, I'm not even sure I'm a Biden voter here, if I had to vote today Buttigieg might edge out the rest of the field for me. So while I'm more "establishment" aligned than you and Randy, I'm also definitely NOT a Biden shill who's going to defend my candidate to the death. I just don't see any evidence that the reason Sanders is trailing Biden in the polls is some sort of "bias" or evil DNC master plan, and not just that a divisive candidate who is only loosely affiliated with the Democratic party is running in a crowded field against the popular vice president of a popular recent president, and against a popular senator who happens to come from a very similar ideological space as Sanders.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2020
  8. Thaeon

    Thaeon Cosmic Question Asker

    Messages:
    1,369
    Likes Received:
    670
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2008
    Location:
    San Antonio, TX
    I honestly am not really committed to any candidate right now. More indifferent to Biden I think. I just don't like the look of how Congressional Dems are trying to keep Hunter in the closet while pointing at GOP corruption.
     
  9. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

    Messages:
    15,219
    Likes Received:
    3,396
    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2005
    Location:
    St. Johnsbury, VT USA
    But then again, Clinton won the popular vote by a significant margin... and lost in the electoral college.

    I don't know that the resistence to Sanders in the Democratic Party has to be evil to be worth discussion, though. I honestly don't think anyone votes thinking about doing evil. People vote based on some series of decision making. I think that those decisions can be wrong without thinking people are evil or even intentionally biased. But in a political climate where most people refuse to have any sort of civil discussion, I think a lot of people will make bad decisions.
     
    Randy likes this.
  10. budda

    budda Guiterrorizer Contributor

    Messages:
    24,155
    Likes Received:
    4,547
    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2007
    Location:
    London ONT
    How about that clean water? Wait...
     
    JoshuaVonFlash and Randy like this.
  11. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

    Messages:
    21,431
    Likes Received:
    6,100
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...-reporter-asks-if-she-could-find-ukraine-on-a


    Both cringey and menacing in equal doses. No idea how you say something like this, then hear it played back and not realize YOU'RE the bad guys.
     
    Thaeon likes this.
  12. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

    Messages:
    4,272
    Likes Received:
    990
    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2011
    Location:
    Dutchess County, NY
    Definitely a man falling apart at the seam. And yeah, kind of screams guilty.
     
  13. sleewell

    sleewell SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    326
    Likes Received:
    356
    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2016
    Location:
    michigan
    Nope never met the guy

    Ah sir there are lots of pictures of you two together

    Nope never met the guy

    Ah sir he claims you two interacted a lot more than just taking pics at fundraisers

    Nope, never met the guy

    Ahh sir what about this tape of you two at dinner talking for hours?

    NEVER MET THE GUY!!!!!!!
     
    vilk likes this.
  14. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

    Messages:
    4,272
    Likes Received:
    990
    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2011
    Location:
    Dutchess County, NY
    Soooo Trump threatened Schiff in a tweet pretty much.

    Anyway, a US Embassy in Baghdad got struck by rockets. Fun.
     
  15. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

    Messages:
    21,431
    Likes Received:
    6,100
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Might come as a surprise but there's a lot of people over there that don't like us.
     
    @zwen likes this.
  16. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

    Messages:
    4,272
    Likes Received:
    990
    Joined:
    Mar 24, 2011
    Location:
    Dutchess County, NY
    Nope. Not surprised.

    Also, Bolton basically put in his book what everyone figured he would.
    https://apple.news/AJdsZawO2R6m6IzNzL8Yy0A
     
  17. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    29,321
    Likes Received:
    4,849
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    I think there's a lot of resistance to Sanders amongst Democrats, and it's not like the DNC is somehow turning people against him. The end of the 2016 campaign got pretty ugly, there's a lot of Democrats who believe (and FWIW, I'm not one of them) Sanders may have cost Clinton the election, and the fact Sanders isn't even a registered Democrat, and after committing to in the home stretch of 2016 still retains his Independent/caucuses with Democrats status. There's some bad blood there, not universally, but enough to matter.

    And, my bigger point there wasn't that it was "evil," but that I didn't see ANY credible evidence that the DNC was the reason Sanders isn't winning in the polls. It's as simple as more people prefer someone else to him.

    Yeah, that's gonna get messy.

    Bolton's book has been in for review by intelligence to ensure nothing he wrote is classified, and has been for about a month. The White House was ware of this and, allegedly, was aware of the contents, which makes the fact they've been arguing this whole thing was a mistake because no one with direct knowledge of Trump's motives had said he was freezing Ukrainian aid to get what he wants, completely ridiculous.

    My question here, though, is if the White House knew this was in Bolton's upcoming book... Do you think Pelosi knew? Do you think maybe this was the reason she was stalling, in the hopes that this would either leak, or be approved and released before the trial? If so, then she absolutely played this perfectly.
     
  18. sleewell

    sleewell SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    326
    Likes Received:
    356
    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2016
    Location:
    michigan
    well at least now the gop senators are getting a better picture of exactly how foolish they are going to look if they quickly acquit and then tons more damning evidence keeps coming out.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2020
  19. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    29,321
    Likes Received:
    4,849
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    By the way, since we glossed over this - the DNC introduced the superdelegate system after 1972 when McGovern managed to outmaneuver his way into the nomination as an underdog in a contested convention, and got absolutely destroyed by Nixon in the general election (though even then he was so damned paranoid that he had his henchmen break into the DNC headquarters in the Watergate Hotel to wiretap them, and the rest, as they say, is history). If you've never read Hunter S. Thompson's "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail '72," it's an awesome read and his coverage of what went down on the convention floor is the second best political reporting I've read from an unexpected source anywhere, after David Foster Wallace's "Up, Simba," on the McCain campaign in 2000.

    Consider the source, and the wording should be taken VERY carefully, but Bloomberg is reporting that "it's not clear there are 51 votes to bring in either Biden." That's definitely a weaker characterization than "it's clear there are NOT 51 votes," but that kinda gets to the heart of why I was saying don't necessarily read anything into Democratic reps saying they wouldn't agree to a Hunter for Bolton witness trade - since the negotiations wouldn't begin in earnest until the end of this week at the earliest it was a costless position to take, and there was no reason to agree up front and potentially have to backtrack, since they might not HAVE to offer anything in return to get witnesses with fist hand knowledge of Trump's thinking.
     
  20. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

    Messages:
    21,431
    Likes Received:
    6,100
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Superdelegate allocation isn't a "hard and fast" rule, though. Republican superdelegates (or better characterized as 'unpledged delegates') were a significantly smaller proportion of the overall delegate numbers in 2016. Also worth noting that the DNC opted to roll back the superdelegate ratio for 2020 specifically because of the perception it had in 2016.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.