US Political Discussion: Trump Administration Edition (Rules in OP)

Results from last night (Virginia legislature flip, Kentucky Gov's office goes blue) implies something I mentioned some time back, that there was a chance of 'Trump Fatigue' even in red districts and that the GOP would be watching closely to decide which direction they go heading into 2020. If Trump looks like he does more harm than good to the party and he's going to be gone after 2020 anyway, there's a good chance they turn on him to protect their interests. IMO it's about 60/40 this happens but likely too little too late to save their majority in the Senate or the presidency or both.

 

I agree, but I don't think the Senate will go so far as to remove Trump from office at this point. I do think they will likely end up running someone other than Trump in 2020, though as he is losing support from republican voters.

 

yeah the suburbs hate trump now, that was shown in 2018 and repeated last night. what was more interesting to me were some of the eastern rural coal counties that went blue. that should be terrifying for the gop. also moscow mitch is polling lower than bevin was so hopefully he gets shown the door in 2020.

trump: i am making this ky election about me, vote for bevin

voters: ok well we are voting for the other guy bc we don't like you

trump: this was not about me at all.

lol

 

I don't think the 11/6/19 GOP led Senate will convict Trump, no. But six to eight months from now... who knows. Even if they're stubborn and they're not there now, the trend at least points that way more than the opposite.

Again, gotta remember that it's at least mildly pointing to the possibility that the voters will hold support of Trump against them in elections. I don't expect the GOP to grow scruples overnight but I do expect them to try and save their own skin.

It's way outside of the box right now but I wouldn't be surprised if the candidate is Pence or even somebody else, they give Trump an out like Nixon where he escapes the embarrassment of a conviction, they escape having to take a vote that will damn them one way or another, he leaves office and hands over the reins to the guy who's going to pardon him and also run in his place.

That's the version that saves face for any of them the most and stops the bleeding. I just doubt Trump has the humility to take it.

 

Completely agree. I think Trump's ego is far too large to allow him to duck out. I think he'd rather go down in flames believing his own hype. I just hope that that's what we'll see. And not some mindless rallying behind him just because fuck dems.

 

As long as he doesn't push the button on the way out.

 

...wait, can you pardon somebody who hasn't been convicted? Was that ever a thing?

 

This is what I'm most worried about.

 

Don't worry about advance warning, he'll be tweeting for tech support after 30 minutes of trying and failing to operate it correctly

 

Not on the state level, which Trump should REALLY be worried about.

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pardon_of_Richard_Nixon

 

Bloomberg to enter the race... thoughts?

 

Noooooooop.

 

deep thoughts lol. care to expand?

i dont claim to know everything about him but if you want trump gone i think he looks like the best chance. biden is way past his prime. warren and bernie are too far left. i like mayor pete the most but there are lots of homophobes out there. doesnt seem like any of the others can get past low single digits.

 

A billionaire too late to the party. Meh.

On issues:
- For the War on Drugs
- Supports employer based healthcare
- Wants to cut all entitlements

I can't get behind that. He's not an absolute dumpster fire of a candidate, but he's definitely not someone I'd enjoy voting for.

 

Too late in the process. If he'd been running since the beginning, yes, I think he'd have a good shot.

Also, what Max said

 

i am not going to let when someone enters the race override if i think they are a good or bad candidate. i think he gave everyone else a shot and is realizing they might lead to trump's re-election.

he is worth 52 billion. certainly has enough money available to catch up. do you really think biden is still all there? i see dementia. do you really think warren or bernie can pull in the center leaning independents who voted for trump last time? i think they play into the fake socialism hate trump wants to run against even though i agree with them on many issues.


very good points Max, i will have to investigate those futher.

 

I'm pretty sure waiting things out was his strategy from the get go. He's dodged the. arguably, more difficult parts of the primary race by bypassing debates and having to compete with fewer candidates. Now that he's seen what has and hasn't worked he can mold his answers.

 

I think Trump is toxic enough to any independents that would be swayed by a ho-hum democratic candidate.

The amount of people that are real independents that can't choose between any of the front runners and Trump is too small to matter as much as republicans and centrists want us to believe.

Also, if Tom Steyer couldn't buy a candidacy, what makes you think Bloomberg can?

 

Purely as an observer and strategically (not speaking from preference), my guess is the pick is going to be Warren.

Biden's age is an issue. He had a reputation for saying the wrong thing even when he was running in 2008 and even if it's just note being careful with his words, he's in a box where any small thing he does is interpreted as a "senior moment" and believe me there'll be more. I also think this shit Trump was doing with Ukraine is grounds for impeachment but there's some legitimacy to the argument Hunter Biden is filthy and a major liability since he was getting all of these "no show" gigs shopping his dad's name around.

Sanders is also too old and even though he got a quick bump after the heart attack, there's going to be increased focus on his health. That's only 1/3rd of his issue, the rest comes from the "too far left" stuff but that stains him more than it does Warren. Warren is a Democrat, Sanders was and still is an independent Democratic Socialist. Sanders had and still has a problem getting establishment Dems to support him because he has zero loyalty to the Democratic Party.

Warren, by comparison, is a Democrat and she has had no problem winning re-election in a state that, while liberal, still swings Republican often enough to keep it competitive. She also worked in the Obama administration at a pretty high level at the CFPB, so she's shown she's not a total anarchist.

My concern with Bloomberg, supposedly Eric Holder and now Buttigieg's turn to the center is this is less about electability and more about protecting corporate interests. And I don't mean that as a "boo! jail the Wall Streeters" sentiment, I mean things like Citizens United that reward the practice of paying off politicians, and giving us poor representation.

I don't necessarily believe in all the purity tests being floated out there by the liberal wing of the party but the "well, you have to be able to win in swing states!" argument for centrism, IMO, is bunk. We were given a hellfire and brimstone warning on AOC when she won against the second in command in the HoR that she couldn't win in the general, and she did. And we were told it was because it's a safe district but now she's raising money 3 to 1 vs an establishment pick in a neighboring district like Jeffries.

If progressive politics poll badly in the midwest it's less to do with conservatism or centrism and more to do with the poor level of education and information reaching them. Democrats were told they needed a "safe pick" in Hillary, not a socialist like Bernie, to win in the midwest and then she went there and told them all their jobs were obsolete and that they needed to get over it. THAT'S how you lose those people. Sanders, Warren and even Yang favor policies that will rebuild the middle class in the midwest speaking from a position of empowerment rather than condescension and when you're talking to poor and poorly educated people, that's more effective than telling them to learn to code.