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Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.
1.9% Q3 GDP. pretty bad since trump was assuming +3% every quarter for the next 10 years to make his tax cut work.
also a very lackluster jobs report and they revised down the numbers from last month pretty significantly.
Beat the Bloomberg consensus median estimate of 1.6%, at least, with stronger-than-expected consumer spending offsetting weaker-than-expected business investment. Net trade impact was flat, better than expected, as was inventories. We were discussing that this morning and our working hypothesis is the buildup in Boeing 737MAX jets that have been completed but not delivered is probably mostly offset by a rundown in inventory at GM due to the strike, but if there was a broader inventory reduction and GM alone wasn't enough to offset Boeing, then that's on one hand a concerning sign for retail business confidence, but on the other if demand remains strong that could lead to additional ordering in Q4 and could potentially boost output.
Personal bias is this will probably get revised down as consumer data HAS been weakening. Any impact from the TCJA was expected to be fleeting and is now clearly behind us, and the incredibly uncertain international business environment right now thanks to Trump's trade war has really brought business investment to a near standstill as no one knows what the trade picture will look like in 6 months' time.
very valid points.
what is your take on today's rate cut?
Probably needed, and fully priced in my the market. The most important part, IMO, wasn't the cut so much as the accompanying language, particularly removing language about supporting the ongoing expansion and instead moderating it to monitoring economic conditions - it looks like they're trying to subtly note that unless economic conditions deteriorate between now and then they're holding in November.
I wonder why candidates never talk about removing daylight savings time. It's highly unpopular; virtually no one still wants it. Maybe it's not as important as wealth inequality or our crumbling infrastructure, but it would be so incredibly easy just to say it and instantly have that many more people say that candidate has a policy I agree with.
Same feelings on Bernie's plan to make election days national holidays. Why doesn't he lead with that more? It's super popular, it's super easy to understand, it's very difficult to disagree with that idea without being very transparently anti-democracy.
I was actually talking Daylight Savings with a friend yesterday. Doesn't Arizona not follow it?
Oh, and House voted to formalize impeachment proceedibgs, as expected. One less thing for the GOP to have to make up something to complain about for.
It does not. I learned this when I flew OUT of Arizona on Daylight Savings Time this year. Airport employees just have to start everything an hour earlier to accommodate States that do follow DST, so it kind of gets them to the same point.
Ironically, this weekend I'll be in Spain when we fall back an hour, which sucks because that first week where it feels like I'm getting up an hour later than normal is the only part of this whole mess I enjoy.
What's remarkable to me is that the result of the uncertainty is a standstill rather than a steep decline. I swear almost any other time in my life, industry would be freaking out at the idea they need to keep treading water indefinitely.
Isn't there a place where there something like: the states does, the county doesn't, but the native american reservation does...so by going through this one specific area, you could in theory have to change your watch 4-5 times within an hour if you wanted to be precise to local time?
I think that's the deregulation magic pixie dust keeping them from losing their shit, personally.
The Babylon Bee would be a lot funnier if I didn't have a couple family members emailing (emailing!) me articles from it as "gotchas".
Or maybe that's why it's funny.
Biggest giveaway is his hair. Too neat.
The Onion needs to change it's name for April Fools Day, but, like...March 20th or something.. It's been around for so long it's to the point that people recognize their font in screenshots where their name is cropped out. Give us just *one* day of Arial and Times New Roman font and a header that says, "Politics Today Weekly" or something, and see how many people fall for their articles again.
Lost his appeal in NY for his tax returns. How many times can we say "No, for real this time!"?
He's going to attempt to say no or appeal again.
This is also HILARIOUS.
So is this impeachment actually going to go anywhere with the no shows and delays with the courts, or will this be dragged out past the election?
Also, the only thing about his tax returns issue going to the Supreme Court is that Roberts won't put up with it.
I have a feeling, based on what I’ve absorbed so far. Something will come of this.
I seriously doubt the Senate will remove Trump from office unless the Senators' constituencies turn against him, but it looks like there will be an impeachment in the House, and likely criminal proceedings against Trump once he leaves office as well.