US Political Discussion: Trump Administration Edition (Rules in OP)

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    The only thing I would say against this, is what from his 2016 campaign gives you any indication Sanders is the sort of candidate who will cut his losses and think big picture? I think the clear right thing for him to do here is recognize that his having a heart attack in the middle of his primary campaign would make him an extremely risky top-of-ticket pick and the general election would be a referendum on his VP if he were to somehow win, but my gut feeling here is the only way Sanders suspends his campaign and his supporters rally around an alternative (and the politics are more complex than they might seem at first glance, by the way - I haven't seen post-Ukraine numbers but the last polling I saw, a plurality of Sanders supporters named Biden as their second pick) would be if the second heart attack kills him. At which point, and forgive me for making light of this, his supporters will probably just blame Clinton. :lol:

    Were they? I remember SHE tried to brush it under the rug, but Trump pounced immediately and it became a pretty big story, at least until the Comey letter a couple weeks later ate up all the bandwidth. Honestly, I've been a little out of the loop lately, but I feel like Bernie's heart attack is getting a lot less media coverage than Clinton's fainting at a campaign event did, which makes a lot of sense I suppose because Sanders was maybe the third-most likely nominee at the time, while Clinton was the favorite to win the Presidency at the time.
     
  2. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    I disagree on the Russian accusations - Mueller found plenty of evidence of mutually-beneficial behavior but no explicit agreement of support, although he did find plenty of evidence of obstruction - but I suppose at the end of the day I'm mostly relieved that someone who could find the Mueller report "not a big deal" could then turn around and find the (IMO) way--more-explicit Ukraine scandal "super troubling." I think the Russian collusion was troubling but stopped short of a smoking gun, whereas the transcript alone probably constitutes one, before we even start talking about the White House suppressing it, the cancellation of military aid for unknown reasons, Trump making even taking the call conditional on assurances Ukraine would investigate Biden, etc etc etc.

    Nothing good would have come of that thread. Trust me.
     
  3. sleewell

    sleewell SS.org Regular

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    mueller failed big time by not forcing trump to sit down for an interview. allowing the target of an investigation to dictate the terms is unacceptable.


    trump came out on national tv and asked the russians to hack clinton. we need to stop accepting him saying that he was joking. he is not joking. he asked for collusion. they started hacking that night.
     
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  4. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

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  5. tedtan

    tedtan SS.org Regular

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    These are Trump supporters; logic and reason hold no sway with them. :lol:


    Unfortunately, this is a good point. I don't think he can win, and his remaining in the race just divides voters on the left.
     
  6. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Yeah, nothing about this surprises me. :lol: It doesn't matter, though - this put a hard cap on his upside, if you're concerned about beating Trump in the general election, a man one week removed from a heart attack is not going to be your first choice unless you were already 100% on board.

    I don't think it will as long as we don't get a repeat of 2016 with Sanders refusing to concede well after he's been mathematically eliminated and causing some pretty large cracks in the Democratic coalition. I think that's a less likely outcome if he's 3rd or 4th in the voting, rather than 2nd. However, a Democratic Socialist isn't especially likely to give a shit about Democratic party unity coming into 2020, so yeah, it's a risk...
     
  7. spudmunkey

    spudmunkey SS.org Regular

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    His campaign surges head. It didn't say his performance in the polls surges ahead.
     
  8. sleewell

    sleewell SS.org Regular

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    ummmmmmm that didn't happen at all. Sanders got completely hosed by the DNC. from the beginning whenever they showed the delegates totals they were counting all of the superdelegates for hillary, which helped convince people she had already won or that the lead was so large it wasnt worth voting for sanders. also right before the California primary hillary's camp erroneously said she had won the nomination and it for sure affected would be voters. there were many clips from voters that said they heard clinton had won so they didn't vote as planned in CA. if sanders won CA which, was a real possibility at the time, it would have been a totally different race.

    The fix from the dnc was in from the beginning and it cost the dems the general election by falsely propping up a horrible candidate.

    all that being said i dont think sanders should be running now. he has some good ideas but i'm not voting for someone who is that old with heart issues.
     
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  9. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    No, they didn't. :lol: It's been a long-standing practice to include pledged superdelegates in thedelegate count, just as it's been long standing practice for the second-place candidate to complain about this. That was Clinton in 2008, and despite her also jumping to an early superdelegate lead, when it became apparent Obama was winning the delegate vote the superdelegates coalesced around him.

    And it was the AP that started calling Clinton the presumptive nominee, something Clinton's camp tried to downplay, Sanders was never particularly close to bringing California into play, and since California gives out delegates proportionally rather than winner take all so had Sanders won by Clinton's margins instead of vice verse, Sanders would have gained 254 pledged delegates to Clinton's 221, and would have tightened the delegate count by 33 - 0.8% of total pledged delegates - rather than falling 33 further behind. It would have been a symbolic, but empty, victory - with Clinton at 2271 pledged delegates to Sanders' 1820, moving 33 from her camp to his would have left her with 2,238 to his 1,853, still a commanding lead. And that's just pledged delegates, totally ignoring the 714 superdelegates. That's hardly a "totally different race."
     
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  10. Vyn

    Vyn Not a Sparkly Vampire

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    ^Have to agree with @Drew on this one, Sanders didn't have a hope in hell of winning nomination. Too progressive for the majority of Americans to consider as a viable presidential candidate. That being said, there feels like a big shift at the moment, a progressive candidate is actually viable this time around.
     
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  11. @zwen

    @zwen Active Member

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    Project Lahtke was a real thing as well. Trump wasn’t caught, but everyone around him were implicated in corruption.
    Trump may have not been indicted, but I certainly don’t think he was innocent either.
     
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  12. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

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    Disingenuous. Party is embracing his policies of 4 years ago (Biden supporting free 2 year community college just this week), it would be silly to assume Sanders would prefer Trump or a Republican majority in either/both houses when he's on the cusp of having his big banner legislation passed and caucusing with a majority party.

    I said it before, a robust and thorough primary helps the party this year and that's what we're getting.

    Even if Sanders comes in second (it'll likely be third and I personally thing he concedes and offers his support to Warren BTW), having the delegates spread among a dozen candidates in the early stages and not having, you know, debate questions given to the establishment pick the day before, will contrast 2016 and the winner will look like an earnest one. IF Sander didn't concede, I think the perception will be that it's petty and it won't have the impact the 2016 snub did.

    Counterpoint on Sanders staying in, if he's still drawing significant enough support to stay in the top three, 1.) He has a right to stay in this race, arguably more than anyone beneath him, including fan favorites like Kamala, 2.) if and when does bow out, he offers a large war chest for whatever Democratic campaign comes afterward, which will likely be a unique group of donors the other candidates arent drawing, 3.) It's further disingenuous for the Sanders cue to leave being a heart attack, but almost as old Joe Biden gets a 'leave the guy alone' on frequent senior moments and Dems all eyerolled over the rights framing Hillary as sick when she passed out at a 9/11 memorial, pissed her pants and was dragged into a van unconscious like Weekend at Bernie's (irony of the title notwithstanding)
     
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  13. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Fair point on your first point there, I'm probably being more dismissive, at a minimum in tone, than I should. But, I think having a heart attack mid-campaign makes his odds here a LOT longer than they were before.

    I haven't seen a ton of good polling about how he's doing post-heart attack, but I've heard some anecdotal claims his base is rallying around Warren. I'll believe it when I see it, largely because Warren was not the dominant second choice of Sanders supporters the last time I did see good polling, and while her increasingly being seen as an electable front-runner could have made a lot of voters who named Biden as their second switch to Warren, I'd want to see some hard evidence of that first considering the polling I HAD seen flew in the face of the conventional wisdom, that Sanders voters should fall back to Warren. It's certainly a very big open question here.

    I think as far as the perceptions of how Sanders not conceding again would look... I think a lot of voters would agree with you, that his holding out to the bitter end would look petty, all the more so if he was polling 3rd or 4th at the time. But I worry about the "Bernie or Bust!" voters. Maybe it's not realistic to expect them to support the eventual nominee in the first place, but IMO that sort of questions the logic of Sanders running as a Democrat to begin with. And thankfully there weren't many, but I definitely recall Sanders voters saying with a straight face they would support Trump before Clinton in 2016, so that's certainly a risk.

    Honestly, I don't have strong feelings about Biden one way or another, as a candidate, so I'm struggling to really engage on him. I think I like him well enough personally, it's just when I look at the Democratic party today, he's not what I see. If he wins the primary of course I'll vote for him, and I think early on he was my second pick behind Harris (whose campaign seems to have fizzled), but very much to my surprise I've come around to Warren. She's toned down the populism (which I find dangerous from ANY political party), and she's really run a great, well-disciplined, platform-oriented campaign.

    End of the day though I don't really care who wins the primary, I just want to put this behind us and move on to the general and the sooner it ends the sooner we don't have to worry about the Democratic electorate committing unforced errors or landing headshots on their own candidates.
     
  14. Adieu

    Adieu SS.org Regular

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    It's really troubling that, in a country this large and with a political duopoly at that, there's such a glaring vacuum of electable politicians
     
  15. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    It's like the Groucho Marx phenomena. Any club that wants me as a member is a club I wouldn't want to join, etc.
     
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  16. spudmunkey

    spudmunkey SS.org Regular

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    I can't remember who was talking about this years ago, but they basically said, "Imagine the kind of person who thinks they should be a congressperson, and realize that pool of people who we are voting for". Or something to that effect...
     
  17. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

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  18. sleewell

    sleewell SS.org Regular

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    well he did want to put a stop to corruption so i guess he achieved his goal lol.
     
  19. @zwen

    @zwen Active Member

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    Nothing good would have come of that thread. Trust me.[/QUOTE]

    The last thing I’ll say is that if that post is still up, I feel that it should be also open to read, because the title is intentionally inflammatory so that I can bring attention to what I see as a real threat to the United States.
     
  20. @zwen

    @zwen Active Member

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    While that is something that is in the future, Donald Trump is a present threat to the Constitution. Even if you somehow see him innocent of coercing the Ukraine, his pledge and actions to “stonewall” the impeachment process is a Constitutional Crisis.
     
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