US Political Discussion: Trump Administration Edition (Rules in OP)

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. Adieu

    Adieu SS.org Regular

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    This is precisely what makes an electoral system designed to generate a two-party equilibrium so inherently faulty.

    ANY passionate enough stance on any issue locks you into a single viable choice.

    And the only two available choices make DAMN sure to scoop up all manner of polarizing issues and rouse the rabble at every opportunity, because the few impassioned wingnut votes mobilized make or break the election.

    Baby murderers! Fascists! Perverts! Bigots! Commies! Etc etc.... oh my
     
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  2. MetalHex

    MetalHex SS.org Regular

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    Looks like I gotta pull out the powerbait then. If I give away free stuff will you bite? :lol:
     
  3. Spaced Out Ace

    Spaced Out Ace 0 0 1 0 0 6 5 0 3\

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    He's a liberal; of course he will.
     
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  4. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

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    It's definitely lead to "anti" voting.

    When the choice is more about who you don't want than who you do. No one wins when that happens.
     
  5. MetalHex

    MetalHex SS.org Regular

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    I agree. "They" are only playing on human nature because they know people love to take identify with a "brand", join a clique and bash the opposite "side". Herd mentality, Psy-ops 101
     
  6. Flappydoodle

    Flappydoodle SS.org Regular

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    Good job I do have a background in statistics then.

    Again, at no point have I claimed that height makes you win. Only that height is one of many factors which people will take into account when deciding who to vote for. Those factors include many other aspects of appearance such as accent, posture, body language, clothing etc etc. I do have an opinion that a 6ft3 guy has an advantage over a 5ft7 guy though.

    I couldn't find statistics by race (not that all candidates I mentioned were white). But I did use the percentile based on their age, putting them into the correct brackets.

    Since people are getting taller, it's even more unusual to see 6ft3 50, 60 and 70yr olds. The percentile figures in the census.gov link I posted earlier also shows that. Many more 6ft 20yr olds than 70yr olds.

    Yes, I had many of these thoughts too. But you're putting words into my mouth, because at no point did I say that the person was there because they were tall.

    Weird final sentence, but ok. I'm happily married with 3 kids, and totally average height and comfortable with it, if it matters :p
     
  7. Flappydoodle

    Flappydoodle SS.org Regular

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    I don't think many people care about camps on the border. And no, they're not "concentration camps". I thought you were smarter than that.

    These are detention camps where people are held after being caught sneaking into the country. To not end up in a detention centre is actually really easy... just don't cross the border illegally. No other country thinks it's normal to have literally thousands of people a day coming in illegally. It's also kinda insane that you break the law to enter a country, then complain about the facilities where you are held - which give you food, a place to sleep, air conditioning, entertainment etc.

    All presidents have held people at the border. And what alternative is there? If you let border crossers go free, they'll disappear into the country forever. You can't just chuck them back over the border because it's insecure and they'll be back soon anyway. Some also claim asylum and then can't be removed legally. Courts are overwhelmed, and politicians won't agree on funding more judges to process cases and issue deportation orders. And even when there ARE deportation orders, people ignore them and some politicians weirdly support that. So the whole system backs up and there's no choice but to detain people.

    The only alternative is just say "fuck it" and have the border totally open and simply don't detain or process anybody who crosses.

    Did you see the letter from the Polish MP to AOC? Sums it up pretty well. It's insanely offensive to Jews and everybody else who was rounded up by Nazis and shipped off to camps to throw around that term.

    Shutdown is long forgotten. It's not an election issue.

    And let's be honest- Trump kept it going so long because most people affected are government workers who mostly hated him anyway.

    Only constitutional crisis is from the media. If anything it seems that Trump has been held back massively by people acting outside of the system.

    Also, I don't think it's an election issue.

    Environment is not a central election issue. Only a small % of people will be voting based on that. And none were voting Republican anyway.

    Healthcare might be an election issue. But for the uninsured, it comes down to who the people without insurance are, and who they voted for and what they wanted.

    Who is we? Trump seems incredibly averse to war. The Fox talking heads and others were all begging him to bomb Iran.

    McCain, Graham and others were begging him to bomb Syria. He did two small strikes to say "naughty boy" and that's it.

    And his opponents will take any position against him. When he doesn't bomb, they say it's weak. When he withdraws troops from the Middle East they say he's quitting. How strange.


    And if that blow-up happens at a bad time politically, it could affect his election chances. But, so far, things are going well and even the WaPo/NYT/etc have to report the lower unemployment, rising wages (finally), record unemployment of minorities etc. Having a job, and how much you get paid is something which directly affects people more than almost anything else. People will vote based on that. Cost of living is another factor, so if some goods really do start to jack up in prices, that could come back to bite him for sure.

    Trump did also say that he was willing to accept a slower economy as trade-off for re-establishing relations with China. Since obviously they are going to be the rival nation for the rest of this century, it does seem a bit crazy to let them do whatever they want to catch up and overtake. If real impact of the "trade war" comes to bite, it's a political issue whether he can sell that to voters or not. It could become a "patriotism" issue, where people may be willing to pay more for goods, or businesses may change suppliers, customers change preferences etc for political reasons.
     
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  8. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

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    This is probably where it would help to be on the ground over here.

    Everyone is talking about it. Even folks who I've known to stay out of politics have spoken up. It's a very polarizing issue.

    I live in a purple state that tends to lean red. I interact with folks in five other states quite regularly and when mentioned they share similar experiences.

    Granted that's not a huge sample set, but it's definitely "a thing" right now.

    Don't overestimate me. :lol:

    They seem to fit decently within widely held definitions:

    https://www.britannica.com/topic/concentration-camp

    It is not illegal to seek asylum.

    https://www.uscis.gov/humanitarian/refugees-asylum/asylum

    The issue is not that they are being detained, but the inhuman way in which it is being done.


    You know what's insanely offensive to Jews, or any group really? Speaking for them.

    I am of Jewish decent and find it far more revolting what you're saying. So please cut the shit.

    Maybe it doesn't come up in the headlines as much anymore, but it's certainly still fresh on a lot of people's minds.

    We're actually staring down the barrel of another potential gridlock and you best believe the most recent shutdown will be trending again.

    It's definitely an election issue. Wait till the actual race.

    There were a number of typically right leaning folks affected, such as Coast Guard.

    We haven't had a full blown crisis yet, true. But this current administration trying to get around the Supreme Court is something new.

    Definitely something to keep an eye on.

    I'll disagree again, and add, much line height, all this stuff factors in. ;)

    Obviously not one single issue is what drives voters specifically, but climate change and the environment is a big one.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/244367/top-issues-voters-healthcare-economy-immigration.aspx

    See link above. It's been a pretty hot issue the last decade plus.

    For and against.

    The American Military Industrial Complex[TM]
     
  9. Flappydoodle

    Flappydoodle SS.org Regular

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    I mean, one party is literally discussing reparations in congress and 7 current Democratic candidates voted to support a bill "investigating" it. That's their way of supporting it without taking the political damage of actually supporting it. Harris, Booker and Warren have also made supportive statements of "history supports calls for restitution". And the crazy author lady openly supported it.

    I'd say paying reparations is pretty much the most extreme version of "paying different prices based on race".

    One could also argue that changing university admission requirements based on skin colour, loans and financial products specifically for different races etc also falls under "different prices based on race". And those ideas are certainly supported by one party more than the other.



    There aren't that many single-issue voters though. Most people broadly align with a party, and both parties contain extremists. That's why everyone swings left/right during the primaries and back to centre in the real election.

    I might be wrong, but weren't you the one just two pages back saying that the single most important thing was to beat Trump, regardless of who or how? That seems to be a pretty common "single issue" right now.
     
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  10. Adieu

    Adieu SS.org Regular

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    Well yeah, that's actually an example of this whole "bipolar" politics problem right there

    See, I feel Trump is a damn wrecking ball and well on his way to leaving historic damage to the very foundation of the country... but, at the same time, most Dems make me cringe.

    As to Republicans, I hate their President. And have long detested their religion.

    Ughhh... sure would be nice to have some multiple choice options
     
  11. Flappydoodle

    Flappydoodle SS.org Regular

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    I'd say it's more of a jail.

    Nobody is being rounded up, taken from their home etc. As I said, it's the easiest thing in the world to avoid - just don't come into the country.

    The term "concentration camp" is obviously loaded, since most people wouldn't differentiate between that and "death camp". It's obviously a political term, designed to stoke outrage and conjour images of people being grabbed from their homes, tortured etc.

    In reality, people who cross illegally are caught and need to be taken *somewhere* while their case is processed.



    I said that in my post.

    However, it's also pretty obvious that thousands of people per day are not actually being persecuted in Mexico, and those are are not Mexican chose not to stop and claim asylum as they passed through multiple countries. Some cases will be genuine, but the system is backed up and people are abusing it by claiming asylum, knowing that it is extremely hard to deport them and that they can probably stay.

    How do you practically detain hundreds of people per day?

    There are 100,000 illegal border crossings per month.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/02/us/politics/border-center-migrant-detention.html

    You also have to contend with things like this:

    "Some migrants clogged their toilets with blankets and socks in order to be released from the crowded cells."

    You ignored all other points about how this problem would be solved.

    I know everybody here hates Trump and blames him for conditions at the facilities. But if you have 1,000's crossing every day, what can you *actually* do? I don't think it's really a solvable problem by the means we are arguing about.

    Do you want to just let them all go free? They'll never be seen again. That's essentially open borders if the law is not enforced in any way. If politicians support that, they they should just say it and see what voters think.

    Or you hold them. That requires large-scale facilities. To house them in a "humane" way. What does that mean?

    They're going to have to be secured large-scale "jails" of some sort. And that's going to cost a lot of money. And while they're there, you need to feed them, deal with their medical care, take responsibility every time something goes wrong (like them fighting each other, diseases going around etc). That doesn't seem like a win.

    You need hundreds of judges and courts running 24/7 to review all cases. The asylum backlog alone is 900,000 cases, which would take years to clear. And you have the parties arguing over whether to fund more judges. Hell, the Democrats (for some reason) don't even want to deport illegals who broke other laws. It's really an insane situation. I've lived in several countries and this simply isn't normal. If you break the law, most countries will just kick you out. It's not even slightly debatable among the population or politicians.

    The answer to me seems pretty obvious. The first step is to secure the border by whatever means necessary to reduce the number of crossings - wall, fences, drones, gun towers, whatever works. Right now, it's like spending furiously when you're already in debt. Illegal immigration can also be discouraged. That can be accomplished by forcing employers to check status. If illegals can't get jobs, there is far less incentive to come. Secondly, there needs to be lots of deportations and an end to sanctuary cities. That is also a deterrent.



    Check out his letter for yourself:

    https://www.jpost.com/Diaspora/AOC-...iamentarian-to-see-concentration-camps-593175


    Agree that another shutdown would be bad for Trump, unless he can successfully blame the Dems for it. Probably everybody would be keen to avoid it in an election year.

    I think that's why he ended it, rather than letting it just go on forever.


    Is it a swing issue though? Maybe in 2020. I don't think it was in 2016.

    Oh definitely healthcare is an issue. But my point was that Trump did promise to scrap Obamacare and was elected on that premise. So if those 7 million voted for him, they presumably wouldn't be upset.

    For healthcare to become a real campaign issue, one candidate needs some sort of feasible plan where the election will be a referendum on that. Maybe if one of the Dems who supports UHC wins nomination, that could turn it into more of a swing issue. I imagine a lot of people who didn't like paying extra money for Obamacare might weigh that against actual universal healthcare which could provide for them and their family.




    Well, that's fair. Seems a lot of people have a hard-on for wars.
     
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  12. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

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    I've been to jails. I've worked for companies that did utilities work for them.

    The stories I've heard and read and pictures I've seen don't look like any of the several jails I've been to.

    They look like really shitty prisons in the 70's and 80's.

    These folks don't make the decision lightly.

    It's not a fun trip and the outcome is not guaranteed to be positive, but it's a shot at a better life, or just life for that matter.

    You mentioned that you have a family. If their lives were threatened, what would you do?

    Again, we can nitpick, but there are parallels.

    Most, including myself, would agree.

    Mexico isn't without problems.

    https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/tracking-mexicos-cartels-2019

    If the asylum system is broken, which I think it is, we need to fix it.

    Homeboy, this is America. We have mass detention down to an art form.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rate

    As I said, everything points to these for profit border detention facilities being worse than the greater majority of US prisons.

    Other than just saying "just don't come here" what are these other points you speak of?

    We're never going to fully secure the border. It's a fools errand. At some point we'll just be throwing so much money and resources at the problem that we might as well just help these people. They're human beings after all.

    We need a clear, humane path to citizenship. That's why we're in this mess. Our system is too slow and uncaring. It's all by design.

    What's clear is that what's being done now isn't working and it doesn't look like that's going to turn around out of thin air.

    I've read it.

    Looks like he doesn't know the difference between concentration camps and death camps either. Wonder why......

    That's very optimistic. :lol:
     
  13. narad

    narad Progressive metal and politics

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    I never said you said that height makes you win. But your idea that people take height into account is not backed up by statistics in the strict sense that there has been shown to be a causal relationship between these things. When you're playing ad hoc statistics, there's many things one could point to that would appear to be causal if they fit your narrative. Tallness fits yours.

    To bring it back around to the classic example, ice cream sales are highly correlated with shark attacks. One ice cream factory develops a new highly optimized automated ice cream process and puts out 10x more ice cream and allows them to sell it at half the price. Ice cream sales skyrocket. You call for all beaches to be closed due to the unprecedentedly high risk of shark attacks.

    Wasn't a personal comment.
     
  14. ExileMetal

    ExileMetal SS.org Regular

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    Summary of right wing anti immigration arguments in this thread:

    “They aren’t concentration camps, they’re just detention centers or jails where we hold specifically Mexicans that are overcrowded and people occasionally die.”

    “It’s not illegal to seek asylum but most of them are probably lying.”

    “There are 100,000 illegal border crossings per month.”

    So which is it? Are they claiming asylum, or are they doing it illegally, and which of those are we detaining them for? I understand that the difference doesn’t matter to you since you suggested gun towers (LMAO), but it would be good to get your Fox News rhetoric straight. Also, you’re glossing over the extremely racist social media groups they found for border patrol agents; how does that dovetail with the rest of your claims?
     
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  15. Ordacleaphobia

    Ordacleaphobia Shameless Contrarian

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    Thanks Max, I needed that. Had a rough start this morning. :rofl:
     
  16. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    So, to add a new subject to the discussion... This is a story worth keeping an eye on:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...ey-epstein-arrest-is-a-worry-for-donald-trump

    tl;dr - Trump and Epstein were evidently personal friends, Trump joked about sharing a fondness for pretty young girls with him, Epstein mentioned using Trump's modeling agency as a model for the one he himself set up to get access to underaged girls, and Trump himself was accused of raping a 13 year old during his campaign, though the suit was eventually dropped.

    More likely than not, there's nothing here. But, if there IS something here, this is going to get sordid in a hurry.
     
  17. MetalHex

    MetalHex SS.org Regular

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    More shit-stirring
     
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  18. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Though, the one nuance you're missing, that I think is important to keep in mind here - this is a new phenomena, and it didn't happen in a vacuum.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/05/us/politics/mexico-tariffs.html

    The charts unfortunately lose their axis labels when copied as images, but you can either go to the original article, or take my word that the two show a spike in January 2019, the former chart stretching back to 2001 while the latter zoomed in to 2016.

    Worth keeping in mind here is that illegal crossings have surged to near-all-time highs during a time when Trump was 1) publicly threatening to close down the border alltogether, and 2) during a time when legal immigration at the border has been severely constrained by the Trump administration. Combined, we have a scenario where it's now virtually impossible to get legal entry into the country, while the Trump administration is publicly mooting a total border shutdown.

    What's the logical response to this situation, if you're a Latin American migrant fleeing your home country and looking for a better life in America?

    And, what's the likelihood that the Trump Administration somehow doesn't know that the clampdown on legal immigration, coupled with public threats to close down the border altogether at some point in the future, wouldn't result in a surge in illegal border crossings?

    This is a political crisis entirely of the Administration's devising, with the most likely intent to stir up enough fear and resentment of immigrants to shove through funding for his stupid Wall.

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  19. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

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  20. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Moot point, though, because Neil has indicated he's not likely to pursue since he's holding out to get the IRS to release Trump's far-more-complete federal returns, and pursuing his state returns could complicate that.
     

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