US Political Discussion: Biden/Harris Edition (Rules in OP)

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. narad

    narad Progressive metal and politics

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    Crash or correction?
     
  2. Adieu

    Adieu SS.org Regular

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    At this point, a predictable correction to match reasonable early in the pandemic predictions based on actual economic consequences would constitute a HUUUGE fckn crash
     
  3. wannabguitarist

    wannabguitarist Contributor

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    What makes you think that's the start of a crash? As of right now we're .79% over the last 5 days and 2.09% over the last month. That's nothing :shrug:
     
  4. Adieu

    Adieu SS.org Regular

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    Never mind, possibly a false alarm, stuff went up instead of nosediving

    What made me think so was the across-the-board nature of the fall for all major stocks
     
  5. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    iMO, that's not really "inclusive" - most of those are tech companies, which are highly sensitive to interest rates in that they in part determine how much future earnings (which are a huge part of growth-oriented tech valuations) should be discounted, and there was a huge 10bps move upwards in the 10yr Treasury curve yesterday. Starbucks was basically flat on the day, and Ford, well, the whole auto industry is at the mercy of microchip shortages and this was likely driven by omicron more than anything else.

    In either event we're rebounding sharply today. I DO think the market is a bit too rosy colored at the moment, but that's not the same as calling for a 20-30% crash.
     
  6. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Quick update on Build Back Better Act - at congressional (bipartisan I think, but I haven't checked, I do know this is a concern of moderate Democrats) request the CBO is producing an alternate scoring on this bill, but under the assumptions that various spending provisions that are intended to be phased out after a certain number of calendar years are instead NOT phased out - moderates are concerned this is masking the scope of the BBBA's spending, and that once passed into law they'll be hard not to extend. This is expected to increase the cost of the bill from $1.3T to around $5T, and if those estimates are correct, it'll be quite a bit harder to rally moderate Democrat support for the bill in it's current form - outlays will need to shrink, or taxes will have to come up, to make it ccloser to revenue neutral under what they consider more politically realistic scenarios.

    This is a roundabout way of saying this bill is unlikely to pass before 12/15, when the Federal government hits the debt cap again which was supposed to be resolved via a reconciliation bill.
     
  7. Randy

    Randy ✝✝✝ Super Moderator

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    Surprised there's not more talk about Trump Media and their new CEO Devin Nunes.
     
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  8. spudmunkey

    spudmunkey SS.org Regular

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    The new company worth $1.5 billion or something hilarious?
     
  9. Randy

    Randy ✝✝✝ Super Moderator

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  10. Adieu

    Adieu SS.org Regular

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    Nah you know what? I stand by my expectations of hyperinflation and/or stock market crash (one or both - either the dollar goes full zollar while the stock market doesn't move much, or the dollar stays after the latest juml but stocks nosedive)

    Rationale? My local AFFORDABLE grocery store just put out an ad with $12.99/lb NY steaks and $3.49 pineapples as WEEKLY SPECIAL prices.

    When this year's cheap store sale special price is last year's premium baller store regular price, that's what we call major frikkin inflation. Seriously oligopolized industries like tech gadgetry or automobiles or things that we are used to claiming are detached from inflation like house prices or the S&P500 can mask or absorb currency fluctuations for a while, but classic indicators like groceries and fuel are suggesting we're screwed.
     
  11. nightflameauto

    nightflameauto SS.org Regular

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    Not much to talk about. Sycophant's are lining up to kiss ass, and every single thing I hear about the "company" makes it sound like a toddler got an idea and they're determined to see it through, no matter how laughable the adults in the room think it is.

    I see another rousing success in Trump's future. And by that I mean it'll go the same way as most of Trump's business dealings. Flatline of nothing to complete failure, maybe with a couple funny moments of non-self-awareness for good measure along the way.
     
  12. Randy

    Randy ✝✝✝ Super Moderator

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    You left out the part where he is the only one that walks away with money and everyone else gets stiffed.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2021
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  13. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    Well, I've done deep market research, and I've painstakingly calculated that Trump's new company is projected to earn $number million USD in just the first length of time! Guys, that is adjective! You need to get your part of the body on board with this adjective opportunity now, or else you might miss out on noun! Act now and you could get your first and last initials on an org chart!
     
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  14. Xaios

    Xaios Foolish Mortal

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    It's a Trump organization, that part is already implied.
     
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  15. USMarine75

    USMarine75 Colorless green ideas sleep furiously Contributor

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    I already get all my insurrection news from Frank.
     
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  16. IwantTacos

    IwantTacos SS.org Regular

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    please fix inflation soon. this shit is not funny. apple and google does all their transactions in dollars...so when you need to shift that back into local currency we're losing 10 percent gross revenue. stahp it.
     
  17. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Plenty of room for divergent opinions here, go right ahead. :yesway:

    TBH I don't think we're heading towards an imminent 30% correction, but I DO think the stock market is overvalued and a 10% drop at least once some point before the winter is over wouldn't shock me.

    Inflation, well, the headline CPI number will rise some more one way or another as lower prior periods drop out of the trailing 12 month... but I DO think we're past the worst. Commodity prices have been sliding for a while, energy prices are way off on the US's coordinated reserve release with basically the rest of the world, the Baltic Dry shipping index is way off its October peak and PMI surveys suggest backlogs are bad but improving, and I don't think the labor market is nearly as tight as conventional wisdom says it is.

    Latter point is worth looking at in more depth - the last BLS employment report showed weak job growth of only 210k new jobs, which inflation hawks are touting as signs that there's no slack in the labor market. Except, the details don't jive. We saw employment growth of only 210k... but unemployment (not continuing claims, but people considered unemployed, not working but looking for a job) dropped 550k, while the workforce (the total of employment and those considered unemployed, regardless of whether they were receiving unemployment insurance) grew 600k. Continuing claims did drop ab out 250k, more closely in line with the job gain, but... for unemployment to drop 550k, either those unemployed workers had to have found jobs, or they had to stop looking and say they hadn't looked for a job in the last four weeks. If that were true, they would become what are called "discouraged workers," workers who theoretically would like a job, but have given up looking because they don't think they can find one. Discouraged workers are not part of the total workforce, so for this to happen, the workforce would have had to drop about 550k. Instead, it rose nearly 600k. It's possible that 550k unemployed workers dropped out of the workforce but nearly 1.1mm discouraged workers started looking again... though even that I'd argue isn't consistent with a "tight" workforce with no labor supply... but, more likely, I think, is that the establishment survey is wrong, the 210k increase is just an unusually large sampling error, and the unofficial parallel "household survey" which showed growth of about 1.1mm new jobs, is actually more accurate, and we're going to see a pretty sizable upwards revision to the November BLS survey of 210k.

    That, if I'm right, will blow some pretty big holes in the "the labor force is tight, a wage price spiral is imminent" inflation argument. And while the Fed dropped "transient" from their vocabulary this month fue to the fact the period of higher inflation (and, for that matter, the pandemic itself) is going on longer than they expected in early spring, they have a very technical definition for "transient" inflation, basically "not related to a wage price spiral," and Powell made it clear that he's bowing to colloquial usage here, but that the factors driving inflation are still almost entirely pandemic related.
     
  18. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    How long is it taking you to convert? Inflation is the degradation of the value of a dollar over time, and will be negligible for transactions of only a few days.
     
  19. IwantTacos

    IwantTacos SS.org Regular

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    C8212281-E8AD-43DF-9005-4F943495D96A.png 26D2B262-B6C1-4F7B-B2DE-12EE63467F47.png

    We have to transfer either monthly or quarterly depending on earnings. Come on strong dollar.
     
  20. USMarine75

    USMarine75 Colorless green ideas sleep furiously Contributor

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    Any word on mortgage rates rising?
     

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