US Political Discussion: Biden/Harris Edition (Rules in OP)

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. spudmunkey

    spudmunkey SS.org Regular

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    I don't think PRS has any higher-representation in worship groups. Heck, the Kiesel group has a bunch of church-players. And Helix. And Kemper. And Fender.
     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
  2. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

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    It was just a joke.
     
  3. Xaios

    Xaios Foolish Mortal Contributor

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    For the record, I've been one of those guys with a PRS playing worship music. Granted, mine is a Custom 24 SE 7 and not a full-blown American PRS, and it played backup to my RG1527. :lol:
     
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  4. possumkiller

    possumkiller Square Dance Caller

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    I feel like you are always spelling their wrong but it looks wrong no matter how I spell it so I'm not sure.

    I was a truck driver for a few years. I can tell you that there is no such thing as the Bible Belt. As soon as you leave the city limits of any decent sized city anywhere in America, you are in the Bible Belt. In Florida, Wisconsin, California, New York. Anywhere.
     
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  5. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

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    At least I don't just use "there" for everything. :lol:

    Good catch, weird (had to double check that one) how autocorrect misses that one sometimes.
     
  6. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    And my joke was if a person is a musician in America, there's an 80% chance they play in a church. :lol:

    Cities... those godless liberal heathen hellholes, amirite!?
     
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  7. Randy

    Randy Taste the Rainbow™ Super Moderator

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    Yeah, the next town over from me (just West of Albany) has a giant sign as you're entering "VISIT OUR CHURCHES!"
     
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  8. USMarine75

    USMarine75 The man who is tired of the anus is tired of life Contributor

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    [​IMG]
     
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  9. Wuuthrad

    Wuuthrad SS.org Regular

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  10. sleewell

    sleewell SS.org Regular

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    Biden needs to end the federal unemployment bump like yesterday if he doesn't want to keep getting those disappointing jobs numbers. get some people up off the sofa and out responding to all the help wanted signs i see everywhere.
     
  11. StevenC

    StevenC SS.org Regular

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    Sounds like the real solution is increasing minimum wage.
     
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  12. Demiurge

    Demiurge Intrepid Jackass

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    ^I agree with this but would understand if it's not enough. People might be less excited about returning to work at jobs that could very well be obliterated again if there's another outbreak & lockdown in the future.
     
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  13. Mathemagician

    Mathemagician SS.org Regular

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    Lmao. Less than $15/hr for a terrible job where people who don’t respect you can treat you like garbage and the customers don’t have to wear masks/many Americans are saying they refuse to get vaccinated putting people with co-morbidities and health issues at risk.

    The latest #’s show that the highest % of Covid deaths by industry is is restaurants/fast food. The rest follow the “low pay/high manual labor” pattern as well.

    It’s a free market. If people won’t work for what you’re paying then pay more. 7.75/hr = $1200/mo. That’s the poverty line # the government arrived at.

    No one is getting off their ass to work 40+ hrs a week split across two jobs. Because no single job will give them 40 hrs /week as that would require providing health insurance.

    Americans told everyone that shitty fast food jobs were for teenagers to work part time and not for adults to even kinda bootstrap.

    So the market responded accordingly. I’m very glad that banks and national chains are trying to get “ahead” of the legislation by raising wages.

    Businesses are not entitled to slave labor. Just because you legally are allowed to offer nothing does NOT mean people are required to accept it. So they’re staying home. Think of it as an impromptu labor strike for higher wages and benefits.

    Higher wages equate to higher spending which creates economic activity.

    Lower wages incentivizes people to exit the workforce.

    Pay people more. Not a single investment analyst is worried about companies being able to afford it. A jump in median labor expense does not alter growth/earnings projections even a bit.

    Every time I check this thread there is someone completely misunderstanding that free market economics is DEMAND driven and not supply driven along with outright ignoring the velocity of money.

    Almost 600k dead, disproportionately from low paying labor jobs. “Why won’t people starve to be here while we try to automate their job away?”
     
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  14. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    You've GOTTA shut off the conservative media, man. It's doing things to you. :lol:

    I was on a conference call with a well-respected economist today who raised a good point - a lot of the job openings that are going unfilled here, are already at wages that should render federal unemployment pandemic benefits irrelevant. He thinks the bigger issue has probably been relocation - pointing to an easy example in New York, high end restaurants in the state are struggling to hire wait staff, even at what are levels essentially not available anywhere else in the country. And, in conversations with a lot of restauranteurs in the city, one of the issues theu're dealing with is Broadway is still shut down, so many of the actors and actresses (and stage crews and photographers and musicians and sound techs etc etc etc) who would normally be in New York City for the theaters and working in bars and restaurants either between gigs or to pick up extra money, are just gone, because they have no reason to BE in New York. Cutting pandemic benefits won't change that.

    Meanwhile, large national construction firms are doing ok since most of them have existing long term take-or-pay contracts for lumber, but with the price of lumber up 5-fold since last April, smaller construction firms are seeing a substantial drop in demand simply because their input costs, which are generally passed through in quotes, are so much higher. That won't change until lumber prices fall, which probably won't be before the summer (perhaps earlier if the Biden administration reverses Trump's Canadian lumber tariffs, but there's been no talk of that yet). That translates into either layoffs, or a lack of hiring new jobs, in the construction sector.

    And, one thing I always check with each weekly unemployment claims report, is the reasons states note in the optional comments section, noting where job losses have been - the last few have noted an increasing number of job losses in transportation and warehousing, which makes a lot of sense considering the huge drop in inventories we've seen in the Q1 GDP report, as the US has generally reopened, while most of the rest of the world, where a lot of the inputs we need for goods made here come from and where a lot of the goods we buy are made anyway, has not. Chip supply is another similar limiting factor - we import finished chips or components, and often from countries that are still being ravaged by Covid, and are struggling to get enough chips to meed industrial demand. The auto industry is running at 70% or so capacity right now, well below cyclical norms, not because there aren't enough people who want to buy cars, but because manufacturers can't get their hands on enough parts to meed demand. Running well below capacity means layoffs and cut hours in the auto industry - worth noting here is leisure and hospitality as a sector actually had a pretty good quarter, with maybe 360,000 new jobs added, meaning roughly 100,000 job losses occurred, on net, in other sectors.

    One final thing I'd note, is that the BLS labor noted as part of the survey results that 9.4 million Americans had reported working fewer/no hours in the survey period due to the pandemic causing employers to either go out of business or cut hours, which is a LOT of people... but that was also down 2mm from the prior period's 11.4mm. That points to two possible explanations, to me - one, that we're seeing an economy with a TON of labor churn, with people moving from pandemic impacted jobs to ones that have not been impacted, and that while there weren't a lot of net new jobs created, there was a ton of hiring of people who had been previously employed... or two, to perhaps a greater extend than we realized at the time, employers responded to the pandemic by cutting hours rather than positions, hoping to keep people on payroll (in part possibly due to programs like PPP, and possibly due to optimism that they could just ride this out), but reduce hours to spread the impact over a larger number of people, than making a couple layoffs and keeping everyone else at full time. If so, then the headline employment numbers probably understated the severity of the recession, but in turn are understating the rate of recovery now. My bet is it's probably a mix of both of these.

    In either event, I don't buy the "benefits are keeping people from applying to jobs" argument for the simple fact that the labor force (defined as people currently employed or actively seeking work) as a percent of the total population ticked up from 61.5 to 61.7%, growth of about 450,000 workers, during a period where employment only grew by 266,000 people. More people started looking for work than were hired, so it doesn't seem like, broadly speaking, the total number of people looking for work is the limiting factor in growth right now. It's a product of demand for labor being geographically out of alignment with supply of labor, of input shortages leading to job losses, and - I suspect - unusually high labor churn.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2021 at 5:14 PM
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  15. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    I may have mentioned this earlier in this thread... but one sobering observation about the Q1 GDP report is, we've rebounded to the point where we're still 0.87% below the all-time GDP peak, in 12/31/2019, but GDP is now positive year-over-year and about 0.5% higher than it was in 3/31/2020. Yet, we've managed all that production with a whopping 8.5 million fewer workers today on 3/31/2021 than we did in 3/31/2020.

    People talk about higher wages somehow incentivizing companies to invest in technology to replace minimum wage jobs. The pandemic already did that, when they needed to figure out how to stay open while minimizing human contact. At this point, continue to argue that a higher minimum wage will somehow depress employment is just kind of cruel and nonsensical.
     
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  16. TedEH

    TedEH Cromulent

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    Yeah, but then you can't call people lazy, and that's no fun.
     
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  17. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    I suppose, in my pursuit of whether or not a statement was accurate, I lost track of whether or not it made someone feel good. :lol:
     
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  18. Mathemagician

    Mathemagician SS.org Regular

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    I enjoy when you post man, because you love all the boring uninteresting numbers as much as I do.
     
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  19. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    :lol: Sadly, I take that as a compliment, and feelings mutual. :lol:

    Idunno, though... Being briefly - only briefly - serious, the economy is an EXTREMELY complicated thing, and anyone who tells you otherwise is just showing their lack of understanding. Is it probable that some people are choosing to stay home because of PUA benefits? Yeah, I'm sure, and early on, that was the point of PUA, when the economy was basically powered off this time last year. Today, though... while I'm sure some people are deciding it makes more sense to stay home and collect expanded unemployment, I think that number is a very small percent of the 8.5 million lost jobs that haven't come back yet, and most of the people who are out of work and collecting unemployment are facing a demand mismatch, where they're either in the wrong georgaphical area, or have the wrong skillset, for the work that's wanted... and even then, with the amount of fixed business investment that's occured in the last 12 months, some of them are likely not needed these days.

    I wouldn't be shocked if UBI becomes something more seriously talked about in the next couple years, if coming into 2024 there's evidence that the economy seems to be close to full employment, but several million fewer Americans are employed. Though, who knows. American ingenuity is something I'll never bet against.

    EDIT - I'll be curious to see how programs in a few states that provide a bonus after four weeks of starting a new job go - even in equiliberum they should lead to *some* gains, but if in practice these gains prove modest, well... there probably isn't a labor willingness issue, you know?
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2021 at 6:30 PM
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  20. Mathemagician

    Mathemagician SS.org Regular

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    There is a reason Yang was 1-note about UBI. It will be required in a world where businesses are no longer regulated well.

    Historically Anti-trust laws exist to prevent “too big to fail” and anti competitive corporate behavior.

    Over the last 50 or so years now the US had absconded that responsibility owed to its citizens and consumers. So in general companies will just get bigger while also needing fewer people due to automation. At a certain point you’re going to have to increase benefits to your aging populations and it has to come from somewhere : Taxes.

    But much like “Medicare for all” is just taking our existing system and making it easier and cheaper for all citizens, a UBI is inherently not political. Everyone gets it. If you need it spend it, if you don’t you invest it or what have you.

    For example: Lab grown meat reduces needs for farmers and their farmhands. (Lowest wages) Automation reduces needs for warehouse workers (slightly less terrible wages), and self driving autos reduces needs for drivers across multiple industries (working class wages).

    All of those are blue-collar jobs. Some pay poorly others pay middle-class wages.

    Meanwhile after 2008 when the big banks all merged one bank had almost 300k employees. Due to using attrition as a release valve they are down to about 210k jobs now. And decreasing. That is a goal. Tons of “good office jobs” are simply not being replaced. (Working class to middle class wages).

    There is a very real discussion that has to start happening this decade because this affects people regardless of which “team” they think they vote for.

    Like you said, it’s not easy-peazy because if all the relevant economic levers:
    - Globalization opening borders to bring in younger demographics who ramp up demand and create economic growth
    - The ongoing domestic restructuring to a service based economy in the west versus manufacturing oriented emerging economies and relevant trade negotiations
    - Strength of emerging countries legal systems to promote international investment vs. political/legal risk
    - Relevant domestic infrastructure development to increase access to opportunities, accepting that things like internet access or high speed transit between major hubs creates opportunities and is a worthwhile investment in a countries future

    Anyone saying that everything is “easy” is trying to sell you something. But anyone saying “we can’t/shouldn’t do anything and things should stay the way they are” is either dumb/blind or both.

    Anything worth working on takes effort.
     
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