Democratic Primary thread

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Drew, Feb 3, 2020.

  1. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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  2. SpaceDock

    SpaceDock Shred till your dead

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    Wow if you think it’s embarrassing to forget a campaign stop location, must be brutal to forget the name of one of the largest tragedies in the last century:

     
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  3. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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    Wow if you think that’s embarrassing, Biden doesn’t even know who his VP is!
     
  4. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

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    Trump doesn't even like his. Also, Pence wasn't selected until July 15th. So it's not even much of a time difference.
     
  5. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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    Holy shit buddy my jokes fly completely over your head.
     
  6. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

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    It's honestly hard to tell sometimes.
     
  7. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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    Then it's working!
     
  8. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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  9. Flappydoodle

    Flappydoodle SS.org Regular

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    Hmm, I think it's more to do with Biden being really old, frail, and possibly losing his mental abilities.

    As a 78 year old, his raw statistical chance of dying within 5 years is around 25%. I'm not sure how the stress of the job and the extra attention (security, healthcare etc) would factor in. Either way, he's old and there's a VERY real chance that his VP becomes president.

    His VP choice is a hell of a lot more important than most (e.g. Obama's 5yr risk of dying in 2012 was less than 2%). It was extremely unlikely that his VP would become president.

    Trump's VP pick was also important, which is why he picked a much younger, very reliable conservative who Republicans would be extremely comfortable with.
     
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  10. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

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    Other than it being, likely, a black woman it's not like the prospective VP pick is going to be significantly different in political ideology from where Biden currently sits. The short list pretty much ranges from left of center to more left of center with a couple progressive outliers.

    If Biden croaks on the day after inauguration day and we're left with President Harris or Demings or Bass, I don't think we're going to see a massive shift in meaningful policy goals.

    So it's definitely important, but I don't think it's any more or less so than in previous elections.

    I also don't think the choice is going to change anyone's vote, which is probably the most important metric. It's hard to imagine someone all in for Biden choose Trump, or not to vote in general, because it's Harris vs. Bass or Warren vs. Deming. I'm sure folks like that exist, but I don't see it being enough to affect the outcome.

    I will say it's getting quite tiring that the pick hasn't been announced yet.
     
  11. Randy

    Randy Full on Friendship!™ Super Moderator

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    Agreed in the general sense. I do think there's a number of 'fed up with Trump' right-leaning Biden voters who are waiting for their excuse to stay home or vote Trump again, who won't like ANYBODY Biden picks for VP. I know a number of single-issue or moderate conservatives who can't stand Trump and literally any headline about Biden or a Democrat that rubs them the wrong way is a "that's it, I'm just not voting this year".
     
  12. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

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    Yeah, I have an acquaintance who is waiting for the Gabbard VP announcement. Ain't happening, but they know that. Like you said, it's just going to be another excuse for those folks who really weren't going to vote Biden anyway in all likelihood.
     
  13. Randy

    Randy Full on Friendship!™ Super Moderator

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    Yep, the bar is that low for them.

    Trump is racist, xenophobic, antisemitic, puppet of hostile foreign actors, watching disease ravage his country now by the hundreds of thousands, etc. for 5 years and they're like "I can't stand this guy, he's gotta go." Joe Biden stutters once "Ugh, they're both terrible, I'm not voting for either of 'em!"
     
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  14. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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    No one’s voting this year... it’s getting postponed!
     
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  15. StevenC

    StevenC SS.org Regular

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    No, it's being posted in.
     
  16. Randy

    Randy Full on Friendship!™ Super Moderator

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    Moar liek postpown't
     
  17. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    I guess this is kind of the consensus here, but I think for the most part Biden's VP pick isn't going to move the needle one way or another - as long as the candidate is a woman (and only that because he's already publicly indicated he's picking a woman), could credibly step in on day 1, and is anywhere remotely near party orthodoxy, I don't see it moving the needle much. I think his pick is only going to matter if it's unexpectedly extremely moderate, or extremely progressive. Gabbard, for example, might be problematic as she's furtherst right of anyone in the DNC primary outside of Bloomberg (and maybe not even then), while Sanders would raise some eyebrows (aside from, you know, being a man) in ways even Warren wouldn't.

    This, pretty much. Still, I think a lot more former Republicans are going to hold their nose this year than Trump expects, and a lot more are going to be turned off and stay home on the right than they will the left.
     
  18. Adieu

    Adieu SS.org Regular

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    Which means EITHER Trump wins OR Trump "wins" OR it's getting postponed/invalidated


    ...at least that's the obvious plan.


    And Pelosi and Biden really don't look prepared to counter something that brazen and blatant effectively.
     
  19. Viginez

    Viginez SS.org Regular

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  20. vilk

    vilk Very Regular

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    I know this video is supposed to be mocking Biden but this is actually one of the most relatable things I've heard him say because I do this all the time. I don't think there's anything wrong with my vision, but sometimes I swear I can see a very fine rain falling and I think I hear it too because of the reverberating sound of window air conditioner units in the alley. It's especially hard to tell when the ground is wet but there aren't any puddles to look for ripples in. Are Joe and I the only ones?
     

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