Finally, we're getting some real data tonight. As far as Iowa, sounds like it's anyone's race, though Sanders ()and Klobuchar) has been surging and Warren and Buttigieg fading. My thoughts, coming into this - with the pre- and post-realignment votes being published as well as the final delegate totals, there's a real possibility that there's going to be a LOT of argument about who actually "won" the caucus, and while I think ultimately you have to defer to the delegate total, I also think in the spirit of intellectual honesty it makes sense to think about what's a "win" before the voting starts, and hold yourself to that afterwards. So.... Most likely outcome is Sanders then Biden or Biden then Sanders, and as long as they're within a single delegate, I don't know how much the order really matters - whoever is on top will call it a win, but it's more symbolic than meaningful. Margins of two or more delegates, or someone else ending up in the top two, that becomes a more meaningful story. The interplay between Sanders and Warren should be interesting here, as at least previously more Warren supporters had Sanders as their #2 than anyone else. If Warren tanks, misses the 15% cutoff in a lot of districts, and Sanders DOESN'T win the delegate count, that's a bad sign for him. Conversely, if Warren does better than expected but Sanders still wins the delegate total, especially if he does so while losing the raw vote, that's a pretty good outcome for him - it suggests he's capable of building a broader coalition than is currently believed. If one candidate "wins" the pre-realignment raw vote but not the delegate count, I think some color on WHY they lost will be important - if someone runs up the margins in a few counties (akin to big margins in CA being responsible for a popular vote win) I don't think that's as meaningful as if someone just does a better job horse trading and building a broader coalition. That's kind of the main difference between a caucus and a regular primary - it's a test of how well supporters of one candidate can convince others to cross over and join them. Sanders definitely has some momentum coming into this, with a number of strong polls published this week. That's both a blessing and a curse - it's good that things seem to be going his way, but it also - rightly or wrongly - makes him a perceived favorite to win in a race that really is probably too close to call. If he ekes out a close win, he's merely meeting expectations, and if he loses by a hairs breath, then (wrongly, I'd say) there'll be a perception that he failed to close the deal. His only real upside scenario is to win decisively. Biden suffers from this though to a far lesser extent - if he wins narrowly, well, of course he did, he's the national front-runner, even if he wasn't necessarily perceived as the favorite in Iowa. Ironically, despite all this, I DO think the margin is more important than the order, if Biden and Sanders do finish with the two top delegate counts. My only real prediction here is if someone DOESN'T get a clean sweep of the delegate count, post-realignment vote, and pre-realignment vote, there's gonna be a LOT of heated arguing about which camp "won" and who got "robbed" tomorrow.