Democratic Primary thread

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Drew, Feb 3, 2020.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    30,806
    Likes Received:
    7,127
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    Finally, we're getting some real data tonight. :lol:

    As far as Iowa, sounds like it's anyone's race, though Sanders ()and Klobuchar) has been surging and Warren and Buttigieg fading.

    My thoughts, coming into this - with the pre- and post-realignment votes being published as well as the final delegate totals, there's a real possibility that there's going to be a LOT of argument about who actually "won" the caucus, and while I think ultimately you have to defer to the delegate total, I also think in the spirit of intellectual honesty it makes sense to think about what's a "win" before the voting starts, and hold yourself to that afterwards. So....

    • Most likely outcome is Sanders then Biden or Biden then Sanders, and as long as they're within a single delegate, I don't know how much the order really matters - whoever is on top will call it a win, but it's more symbolic than meaningful. Margins of two or more delegates, or someone else ending up in the top two, that becomes a more meaningful story.
    • The interplay between Sanders and Warren should be interesting here, as at least previously more Warren supporters had Sanders as their #2 than anyone else. If Warren tanks, misses the 15% cutoff in a lot of districts, and Sanders DOESN'T win the delegate count, that's a bad sign for him. Conversely, if Warren does better than expected but Sanders still wins the delegate total, especially if he does so while losing the raw vote, that's a pretty good outcome for him - it suggests he's capable of building a broader coalition than is currently believed.
    • If one candidate "wins" the pre-realignment raw vote but not the delegate count, I think some color on WHY they lost will be important - if someone runs up the margins in a few counties (akin to big margins in CA being responsible for a popular vote win) I don't think that's as meaningful as if someone just does a better job horse trading and building a broader coalition. That's kind of the main difference between a caucus and a regular primary - it's a test of how well supporters of one candidate can convince others to cross over and join them.
    • Sanders definitely has some momentum coming into this, with a number of strong polls published this week. That's both a blessing and a curse - it's good that things seem to be going his way, but it also - rightly or wrongly - makes him a perceived favorite to win in a race that really is probably too close to call. If he ekes out a close win, he's merely meeting expectations, and if he loses by a hairs breath, then (wrongly, I'd say) there'll be a perception that he failed to close the deal. His only real upside scenario is to win decisively. Biden suffers from this though to a far lesser extent - if he wins narrowly, well, of course he did, he's the national front-runner, even if he wasn't necessarily perceived as the favorite in Iowa. Ironically, despite all this, I DO think the margin is more important than the order, if Biden and Sanders do finish with the two top delegate counts.
    My only real prediction here is if someone DOESN'T get a clean sweep of the delegate count, post-realignment vote, and pre-realignment vote, there's gonna be a LOT of heated arguing about which camp "won" and who got "robbed" tomorrow. :lol:
     
  2. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

    Messages:
    17,097
    Likes Received:
    6,247
    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2005
    Location:
    St. Johnsbury, VT USA
    I predict that the guy from Vermont will place third, despite his momentum, get overly excited, make a funny noise, and then people will make fun of him for years to come. Wait, what year is it? 2004, right?
     
    Trainwreck likes this.
  3. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    30,806
    Likes Received:
    7,127
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    :lol:

    Thanks for giving a fuck about my thread no one else seems to give a fuck about, anyway, man. :lol:

    (Sanders taking third tonight isn't impossible, but that would be a HELL of a surprise outcome)
     
  4. Mathemagician

    Mathemagician SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    4,548
    Likes Received:
    4,054
    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2014
    There is too much actual thought going into this. I came here for a dumpster fire. Like literally almost every thread that’s supposed to be about guitars. And the newest political thread is trying to start discussions? With open ended questions? What do I even do with my pitchfork?
     
    Thaeon and c7spheres like this.
  5. SpaceDock

    SpaceDock Shred till your dead

    Messages:
    3,620
    Likes Received:
    1,782
    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2009
    Location:
    Windsor, CO
    I’m hoping for Pete or Amy. I just can’t fully support the others right now.
     
  6. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Liz > Amy > Bernie > Steyer > Biden > Bloomberg >>>>>> Pete
     
    StevenC likes this.
  7. c7spheres

    c7spheres GuitArtist

    Messages:
    3,733
    Likes Received:
    3,449
    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2017
    Location:
    Arizona
    All political party labels are evil. They signify the support of quasi-separatism movements and other such radically violent ideologies and anti-humanitarian genocidic practices such as voting, democracy, the American way, Capitalism, equality, inclusionism, equal rights, human rights, and false peace. It's against all humanity and the peaceful way of the universe. I can't in good conscience take part in such debauchery. Good day.


    * This is what's called sarcasm. It's funny. Have a nice day. : )
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
  8. Ordacleaphobia

    Ordacleaphobia Shameless Contrarian

    Messages:
    2,582
    Likes Received:
    2,074
    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2013
    Location:
    Chico, CA
    Definitely read Steyer as Slayer, instantly assumed this was a shitpost ranking the big 4, and immediately started searching for Metallica before I realized I definitely didn't get enough sleep last night.
    SSOvision at it's finest. I'd vote for Bernie if he had a maple fretboard. The build quality on the WMI .Bloombergs* are pretty decent too.

    To be vaguely on topic though, I don't really have much of a dog in this race at this point, so I don't even really know who to pull for now. I'm not big on Warren at all, so I guess I'm just in the 'literally anyone else' camp. Still though, really curious to see how this all shakes out. I honestly have no idea how this is gunna go.
     
    Randy likes this.
  9. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    :lol:
     
  10. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Hot take

    Screenshot_2020-02-03-21-12-06.png
     
  11. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    More hot takes (since apparently we can't even have speculative numbers yet)

    Screenshot_2020-02-03-22-19-16.png Screenshot_2020-02-03-22-21-00.png
     
  12. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    :disco:

    Screenshot_2020-02-03-22-39-01.png
     
  13. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Screenshot_2020-02-03-22-59-29.png Screenshot_2020-02-03-23-08-38.png :Trainwreck:
     
  14. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    I'll apply Hanlon's Razor to this for now but my current takeaway

    1.) The technology issues and tribalism/conspiracy taking hold (rightly or wrongly) is awful for the Democratic Party and 2020 general election viability, and these are self inflicted wounds.

    2.) Turnout so far projecting to be 2016 numbers or worse, compared to record years like 2008. Apparently 'stop Trump at all costs' isn't inspiring enough to drive turnout or pushback against skepticism/apathy. Bad for Dems.

    3.) Despite somewhat pedestrian turnout, apps and phone systems crashing, and voter registration forms running out all night. Very poorly prepared.

    4.) Caucuses not being the same as primary ballots/polls, long wait times have direct effect on outcomes. You have to stick around to be counted, so the longer this goes on, the less it reflects actual turnout. I'm not calling shenanigans, but this is unfair to the people who did participate or at least tried to.

    Things off to maybe as bad a start as possible.
     
    AxeHappy likes this.
  15. narad

    narad Progressive metal and politics

    Messages:
    10,841
    Likes Received:
    15,315
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2009
    Location:
    Tokyo
    Why the dislike for Pete?
     
  16. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

    Messages:
    38,907
    Likes Received:
    32,203
    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2008
    Location:
    Racine, WI
  17. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    FWIW, I was a mayor Pete guy early in this process and going back to his bid for DNC chair.

    Going back to the beginning, he was pushing Progressivism and even used terms like 'Medicare for All' and 'single payer' to outline his position. He's exceptionally well spoken and young, even though it's not a huge town, being mayor of a city gives him executive experience, etc.

    Then early on in this primary, he switched over to attacking progressives on the debate stage using rhetoric directly out of the Fox News playbook, first on singer-payer and then on campaign finance (which is the single biggest contributor to our fucked up government). Much like I decried Sanders attacks on Hillary as being headshots, and Hillary's attacks on Obama dog whistling birtherism, Pete's attacks on Progressivism (which, even to a small degree, the eventual nominee would have to give a nod to rally both blocs) are soundbytes the Republicans will use and reuse in the general election.

    Then when you dig beneath the surface, you see the guy courting wealthy donors (and more specifically, lobbyists) when he didn't/doesn't need to, you see him stonewalling the people and the press in his hometown over the fucked up police department and their practices, and then for all the "aw shucks" midwest blue collar yokle talk, he was a big shot at a firm advocating for privatization of the postal service.

    THAT makes the guy come across as phony. Just putting on whatever he thinks the audience wants to hear, with no actual principals to speak of. A status climber little else. I'd take a blue dog that's at least earnest in their positions and has a better resume over a noob with no loyalties at all. At best, he might betray you when he gets in but at least he's a Dem, at worst this all becomes clear by November and we get another 4 years of Trump. Hard pass.
     
  18. Captain Butterscotch

    Captain Butterscotch SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    1,927
    Likes Received:
    599
    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2011
    Location:
    Stevensville, MD
    RE: last night's Iowa caucus

     
    Randy likes this.
  19. Randy

    Randy Tony Lazuto?! Super Moderator

    Messages:
    23,359
    Likes Received:
    10,877
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Aaaand, 7:30 on Tuesday and still NO results. I can't imagine this being more disastrous. This is literally at or a hair away from literal absolute worst case scenario territory.

    Drew can plug his ears for this one but Hillary passing out at the 9/11 memorial again. Something unpleasant and otherwise benign, but constantly shifting answers that seemingly contain at least one or two lies/inconsistencies in an effort to control spin and deflect rather than being truthful from the outset.

    1.) First the De Moines Register thing. Drew took back his position but I still believe SOME kind of projections were appropriate. This concern becomes magnified further based on how the actual polls played out.

    2.) Next it was "quality control", which is about as suspicious and black box a term as you can get. That alone SOUNDS like 'we're making sure the results are what we want them to be'. And before I'm accused of being conspiratorial, I say that solely with regard to perceptions and gaslight a narrative that's already out there.

    3.) "The app" goes down. Who thought using an app to transmit all of this was a good idea? We know we're being targeted but Russian hackers who seem to be better than our best defenses, and have been greenlighted by the Republicans, and we put our results in the hands of a hastily produced, one time use "app"? Turnout was below projections, so it couldn't even handle LESS people than were expected?

    3.) Caucuses were stuck using the phone system to call in and log results on paper. Precincts reporting being on hold literally for hours and being cut off arbitrarily by HQ, which were tallying this all up totally black box, nobody inside besides Iowa DNC officials, no explanations getting out.

    3.) Now precincts text messaging their results to HQ with pics of tallies. Wildly ripe for mistakes at best, rigging at worst.

    4.) HQ then says no, app didn't go down, phone system didn't go down, there were just "inconsistencies". Super super troubling term. Is it shenanigans? If so, at what level? Locally? At the HQ? Why the shifting answers?

    Like I said, i dont even need to indulge in conspiracies here. This is absolutely gaslighting everyone's worst fears about the process and this race. The DNC had a responsibility for at least one clean, concise night to give us some semblance of a consensus trajectory here and the blew it in now historical fashion.
     
  20. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

    Messages:
    38,907
    Likes Received:
    32,203
    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2008
    Location:
    Racine, WI
    Folks need to get shit canned for fucking up this royal.
     
    JoshuaVonFlash and tedtan like this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page