Covid 19/Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Ralyks, Feb 27, 2020.

  1. Charlie Foxtrot 3rd

    Charlie Foxtrot 3rd Seven strings, Zero skill

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    I smoked weed with Johnny Hopkins, also with the global population as large as it is now we kind of need a “reset”
     
  2. USMarine75

    USMarine75 The man who is tired of the anus is tired of life Contributor

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    Is that a new Ibanez model?
     
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  3. USMarine75

    USMarine75 The man who is tired of the anus is tired of life Contributor

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    Yes, but that is a 2% chance of dying by a specific cause (iterated) out of the 100% (cumulative probability) chance of dying in your lifetime.

    This is 2% chance of dying during this pandemic if you contract the disease.

    Very different.

    Look at it this way... 1918 H1N1 "Spanish" Influenza:
    • Infected 500M+ people (30% world population)
    • Had a 2.5% mortality rate
    • Killed 20-50M people (*including secondary post-flu infections, prob as high as 100M) which was 2% of the world population at the time.
    • This was 20-100M deaths, not lifetime, but in one year (1918-1919).
    To further explore the data:
    • In 1900, likely 30-40M people died of ALL causes. In 1918 the same or more died from just ONE illness. So, the 1918 H1N1 killed as many people in one year as ALL other causes.
    • Historical Diseases Lifetime Mortality:
      • 35M people have died of AIDS worldwide since 1983
      • 75M people have died of smoking related illnesses in developed countries since 1930's.
    • WWI total military deaths - 10M
      • So, 1918 H1N1 killed more people than total military deaths in WWI.
    • WWII total military deaths - 25M
    • WWII total civilian deaths - 40M
    • Holocaust - 6M Jews, 11M total deaths
      • So, WWII total deaths of 75M killed 3% of world population from all causes (war, famine, Holocaust, etc) while the 1918 H1N1 killed 2%.

    So yeah... about that 2%.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2020
  4. KnightBrolaire

    KnightBrolaire grossly incandescent

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    I was talking about mortality directly attributed to the disease, which is ballpark anyways.
    I used John Hopkins' real time tracker of the infection. 2979 reported dead worldwide/86,986 infected= 3.4% mortality as of 0534 today.
    China is overwhelmingly skewing the data currently with nearly all reported deaths coming from China.
    Italy is at about 2.6% currently (29 deaths/1128 cases), USA is at 1.4% (1 death/71 cases), South Korea is at 0.48% (17 deaths/3526 cases).
    Whether the coronavirus will hold at that rate or move is unknown from the papers I've read. They only just discovered covid19 back in december.
    Until it starts killing healthy young people like the Spanish flu, there's no real reason for the general public to freak out and cause panic. All panic does is stress medical facilities and waste their time/resources on patients that THINK they're infected when they could be treating actually ill patients. Same shit that happens with the flu each year.

    If you want to go in and break down specific mortality rates by country, here's the realtime data:
    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


    Measles used to kill 2.6 million people each year before vaccination, and measles is far more contagious (18:1 infection ratio vs about 3:1 for coronavirus and 2:1 for the flu). Over 100,000 kids die each year from measles worldwide still (mostly in 3rd world countries where vaccination is less prevalent).
    16000 people have died from the current influenza strain.
    32,000+ people die each year from car accidents in the USA.
    Estimated mortality from hospital acquired infections run anywhere from 250,000+ deaths every year in the USA alone.
     
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  5. USMarine75

    USMarine75 The man who is tired of the anus is tired of life Contributor

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    You don't have to tell me lol.

    Was this reply meant for me? I was answering why @Adieu 's understanding of statistics was (funny IMO, but) not correct.
     
  6. USMarine75

    USMarine75 The man who is tired of the anus is tired of life Contributor

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  7. narad

    narad Progressive metal and politics

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    I was under the impression that transmission was via inhaling droplets, but a recent podcast said they think it's more fomites-based (surface contact). I heard this while working out at the gym...eeek. Does anyone know how long the virus can live on such surfaces? The thought of skipping the gym and getting fat for the next month is not great.
     
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  8. KnightBrolaire

    KnightBrolaire grossly incandescent

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    Most research I've seen suggests droplet based, with said droplets being inhaled or the victim touching contaminated surfaces and then touching mucus membranes like the mouth/eyes/nose.
    edit: time on inanimate surfaces seems to be less than 9 days based off of research on previous coronaviruses. Hard to say though, since they're still learning about the virus.
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00430-004-0219-0
    https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext
     
    Last edited: Mar 2, 2020
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  9. cwhitey2

    cwhitey2 BlackendCrust Metal™

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    I wanna say I heard around 9-12 days, but I could be totally incorrect.
     
  10. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Yeah, that was the thing that surprised me the most, that this one doesn't seem likely to burn out. I saw some comments on the disease from a former head of the CDC under Obama, and his base case right now was it hitting the US in force in mid-March and April, slowing down over the summer, and picking up again in the fall. Based on overall higher level of medical care the expected mortality rate here is around 0.2-0.5%, much lower than China, but also probably double that of the seasonal flu. Vaccines are in testing, but even optimistically it'll be a year before we have a proven vaccine. School closures by April are pretty likely.

    On one hand, this isn't hugely worse than the seasonal flu... but on the other, that kills betwen 12,000-61,000 people a year. Assuming we fail to contain this, and at present we're doing an abysmally bad job, then somewhere in the ballpark of 30,000-100,000 fatalities is a pretty reasonable projection, and while that will be hitting the very young and very old the hardest, that's still a lot of people.

    Put another way, if we have a couple thousand active users, say, 3,000 people who post at least once a week, a 0.2% mortality rate implies that a global pandemic would result in six of us dying. That's worth thinking about.

    BTW, I'd say the chance of recession, especially given that weak core PCE delator and final sales to private domestic consumer numbers below the 2.1% headline suggest consumption was already weak in Q4, is reasonably high due to the supply chain and demand, especially services demand, numbers.
     
  11. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

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    Well, at least right now the Dow is attempting to bounce back.
     
  12. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    After a 14% drop. :lol:

    The market is super volatile and emotion-driven in the short run. I'd look at thinks like the record-low Chinese PMIs that came out over the weekend, the fact that large chunks of global GDP are running well below capacity due to containment measures, and demand slackening as people avoid public places. This has been a pretty ugly, rapid correction, but I think a lot of the uncertainty that brought us here is still in place.
     
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  13. Lemonbaby

    Lemonbaby SS.org Regular

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    Oh crud! Don't tell me it's the same with a cold...
     
  14. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

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    4 more dead in Washington. Trump's looking for like an asshole for the way he's been handling it each day.

    Meanwhile, I read there was a case inNYC last night... While I was in NYC for Cult of Luna. So if it looks like I stop posting abruptly, it's been really dudes.
     
  15. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Yeah, confirmed case in NYC. One in MA too though I don't remember where.

    Trump is talking a big game about shutting down flights from China... but planes are still flying from South Korea and Italy, and I believe the NYC case was someone who had contracted it in Iran. Meanwhile, the CDC simply doesn't have enough tests available to adequately screen - word is at the major local hospitals around here they're running ten a day, and doctors basically have to make the case that it's life or death before they can get one of the test kits because they're in such short supply. We're going to need tens of thousands inside the month.

    Meanwhile, his administration slashed CDC funding for foreign nations by 80% in prior budgets over Obama levels, and stopped funding outright something like 34 of 38 countries we provide assistance to, China being one of those countries. :rolleyes:
     
  16. Randy

    Randy Full on Friendship!™ Super Moderator

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    I'm in NY and my mom is an ER nurse manager of 40 years, and they still haven't gotten any formal training on this. Said it's standard protocol for the flu etc until they get formal notice and training from either county board of health or CDC. Woefully unprepared.
     
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  17. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Yeah, it's mind blowing.
     
  18. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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    Apparently we have “single digit” exposure of the kung flu here in Jacksonville.
     
  19. narad

    narad Progressive metal and politics

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  20. ESPImperium

    ESPImperium @ESPImperium

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    As far as Im concerned, we are at war or on a war footing.

    As someone who works in a supermarket, i can say that some sub cats and specific lines are low or depleted. However the range of things that could happen on is eye-watering and understandable at the same time.

    The worst case scenario would be some of the following; A suspension of cash and to operate cashless for a period of time to prevent infection of till workers, vegans and ethical warriors having their 'rights' ended as the factory used for their niche being made would be needed for the needs of the majority, limits on amounts per customer - meaning two of a specific line or from a specific category. Working in conjunction with people who work in other chains, the terminology and process may differ, however the end goal doesn't.

    My mindset at the moment is of a war footing, not with another nation, but a virus and its pandemic. Im sure many other folk like me will be be prepared to do our part and feed the nation, we will mostly all pull together. Im sure that if there is panic, like Hong Kong and Singapore, it will last for a couple of weeks and then return to a close to normal. However, its Italy Im monitoring as it isn't going that way after 10 or so days of panic buying in some areas.

    The UK is about 2 away i think form quarantine and full on Christmas on steroids if we play it wrong, so far, the government and most of the leadership across all the devolved administrations are doing their best and have a clear plan and unlike the past 3-4 years, are all playing together.

    If most folk play it cool, and act calm the country will be okay. Churchill quote here... Bulldog Spirit and all that jazz.
     

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