Covid 19/Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Ralyks, Feb 27, 2020.

  1. Ralyks

    Ralyks The One Who Knocks Contributor

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    Wasn't sure if this was for this section or the health section. Either way, think we should address it.

    Well, what are you thoughts on how this will play out? Normally I'd hope this would be contained, but now here in the US, we have the guy in CA who was diagnosed with no previous contact and mysterious origins. Meanwhile, I have family whole live in the woods telling me my son and I should prepare to move in with them if it gets to NY. And everyone else in my immediate family works in health care.
    Oh, plus the tumbling stock market. Plus Trump put Pence in charge, which previously basically let AIDS spread in his own area in 2015.

    Anyway, thoughts?
     
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  2. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

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    I *think* there was a version of this thread that existed that was either conspiracy ridden or racism ridden, I don't remember but I went into it once before it got totally nuked. Without knowing the context of that, I dunno what the shelf life of this one will be but we'll see.

    Anyway, this seems to be how pandemics work. There's almost no scenario where this wasn't going to spread across the globe, and the case that appears to be community spread indicates we'll be dealing with it coast-to-coast shortly.

    At this point, obviously you do containment as much as you can to slow the progression but considering the spread is now inevitable, I think the hope is some breakthroughs in treatment. Don't know what the numbers look like now but I was seeing a 2% mortality rate in the first few weeks of it vs. the usual, say, .05% from the flu.
     
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  3. KnightBrolaire

    KnightBrolaire Thy Fart is Murder

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    meh. I work in healthcare and everybody is taking precautions, but there's no reason to panic yet imo. CDC has it classified as low risk.
    The number of confirmed deaths vs infected people is pretty low currently. Also it's just killing vulnerable populations at the moment eg elderly population and immmunocompromised (who also die from basically every infectious disease including the flu). I'd be more worried if healthy young 20yr olds start dropping dead from it like the Spanish Flu back in the 1920s. If you''re really paranoid then wear a face mask, avoid crowded public places as much as possible and don't fly.. Also for the love of god, actually wash your hands regularly (per CDC guidelines. It's the easiest way to break the chain of infection. Also just avoid traveling to Hubei province or china in general lol

    overall mortality rate is about 3% currently worldwide according to John Hopkins, versus the flu which is 4-10% depending on strain/year.
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
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  4. sleewell

    sleewell SS.org Regular

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    the death and black metal songs are virtually writing themselves.
     
  5. diagrammatiks

    diagrammatiks SS.org Regular

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    It could be really fucked. Not really in terms of personal health but just in terms of general panic and societal breakdown.

    like currently in china all schools are shutdown.
    Japan just shut down all public schools.

    but my office had the option of going back to work on Monday. but, I'm letting everyone work from home until next next week. we're still on health lockdown which means mandatory face masks in public places and temperature checks when you into any public building and wearing a face mask at work all day sucks.
     
  6. sleewell

    sleewell SS.org Regular

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    there was a news story yesterday that said the masks basically do nothing to protect you from it.

    true or false?

    dow is down like 2400+ in only 3 days which is pretty significant. supply chains are def getting messed up.
     
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  7. Randy

    Randy Sous Chef Super Moderator

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    I'd assume that varies greatly based on where it happens, as well? I'd imagine you'd see a swing (both with corona and flu) depending on overall health, quality of care, environmental factors, etc?
     
  8. wankerness

    wankerness SS.org Regular

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    Masks are well known to not protect you from pretty much anything, it's more so YOU don't send YOUR snot and phlegm flying everywhere. That's why they wear them in Japan, it's often the sick people doing it, since they care about not infecting people over there, unlike here/China. :p

    I've seen businesses pushing around the idea of working remotely for two weeks and cancelling classes (at schools) for two weeks or whatever if there's an outbreak here. I think this is idiocy of the highest order. What, will they just reset the two weeks timer every time someone in the state gets sick? They'd have to cancel classes for a year or more!

    There's been one person that was 29 that died recently from it. But, I dunno. Flu kills young people sometimes, too. I really think the threat of this is overblown and the bulk of harm that's going to come from it is going to be as a result of irrational panic as a result of the media hyping it up as being equivalent to the black plague or Ebola (which is how most people I interact with in real life think it is). We're going to all get exposed to it eventually, and trying to quarantine entire populations for a couple weeks isn't going to do jack in the long run since it's not like it's a hurricane that will only last for a short period and then be gone. It's going to stick around until no one has it anywhere.
     
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  9. vilk

    vilk Very Regular

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    I heard that the virus is, as far as virus go, extraordinarily large--too large to pass through certain qualities of mask. I don't even know if the super duper cheap ones are held to any kind of standard, but I have a couple Pitta masks which are alleged to stop it with their super fine mesh. But also they are just way more comfortable. My wife brought them back from Japan before the coronavirus thing was even happening, I've been using it all winter because it keeps my face warm and doesn't fog my glasses like paper masks do, then you can fold it up and put it in your pocket when you're walking with the wind to your back, pull it back out when the wind's to your face. I imagine it as less threatening looking than a balaklava :lol: though these days maybe it's even more frightening.

    -------

    My wife is Japanese and we go there every year (maybe some of you remember, when I joined this forum I was living there). She goes back for about 6 weeks, I go back for the final 2 of her 6 and then we come back together. Right now we are just hoping that they'll keep travel open long enough for her to get in. If I don't get in it's not the end of the world for me, but for her it's her only time of the year to see her friends and family. I'm kinda hoping that once I get there, then they turn on the return ban and I can't come back to America, and I get like an extra month of vacation or something. No, not really, that would fuck up my life, but it's the joke I've been telling my wife to make her feel better.

    But then again, who says that coronavirus & travel bans for it will end? I joke that I'll get an extra month vacation, but what if it's longer than that? So basically crossing my fingers that they don't eventually put any full stop bans between Japan and USA.

    TBH, I'm not concerned with catching the virus. Maybe that's foolish. But I've got my mask and my sanitizer, and I've never gotten any kind of flu in my whole life. Really, I heard that no one is going outside, so I'm thinking that it'll be great for shopping and sightseeing. But it would be a real bummer if all my favorite restaurants and bars and temples are closed down. Fuck it, who cares, as long as there's convenience stores. I think I'm hungry. I'm ready to murder a convenience store bento box right about now.
     
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  10. wankerness

    wankerness SS.org Regular

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    Japan has had some publicized cases of refusing to allow foreigners in their businesses thanks to Coronavirus panic, too. I dunno if they only mean asian-looking foreigners, or blanket "all Gaijin," though.
     
  11. Exchanger

    Exchanger SS.org Regular

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    I think since it's still fairly new, some institutions didn't want to take the risk of a quick spread. And even if the mortality is low, it makes sense to try to contain it and kill it in the egg as early as possible. This way it can be eradicated and problem solved. 3% is still a whole lot if millions get infected.
    Of course now that it's pretty much all around the world it makes less sense, and the focus should indeed be on a cure and making sure there's enough beds / medical personnel ready to deal with vulnerable patients.
     
  12. KnightBrolaire

    KnightBrolaire Thy Fart is Murder

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    Mask do have a prophylactic effect but honestly washing your hands is far more critical. same with regular use of hand sanitizer and avoiding public places if you're in a vulnerable population or live with someone in that group (eg elderly, young kids under 4, immunocompromised people). As wankerness said, the mask helps keep sick people from spreading the disease.
    Coronavirus is droplet borne, so it can travel up to 6+ ft from a sneeze. Particles are large enough that they don't linger in the air the way say something like tuberculosis does.
    Yeah mortality varies wildly with quality of care, age, overall health. There is a pretty strong direct correlation where the older someone is, the greater their risk of being killed by even minor infections. I''vs seen old people literally die from Urinary tract infection or relatively minor wounds because they progressed into sepsis.
    As I said nearly all infectious diseases wreak havoc on vulnerable populations since they're already weaker compared to the average person.
    As far as environmental factors, urban areas are more heavily affected by droplet/airborne infections due to the higher density of people. Same thing within a hospital. Hospital acquired infections go up dramatically if hospitals are overflowing with patients.
    Quality of care for most viral diseases is more about dealing with symptoms and preventing dehydration/electrolyte imbalances (which kills a ton of small children/old ppl annually)
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2020
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  13. wankerness

    wankerness SS.org Regular

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    If there was even a tiny chance that they were going to come up with a cure/vaccine for it that would be available to millions and millions of people for free, I would agree with you. But there isn't. I think sending everyone home for two weeks will do absolutely nothing other than maybe delay the time before people inevitably end up getting it. The only way you won't be exposed to it once it goes full pandemic is to just basically not go out in public ever until there are no more cases of it anywhere. Which, as we all know, is virtually impossible. Like, there have been two different illnesses going around my small campus here for about 3 months now. Practically everyone's been exposed to it at some point, but it just keeps spreading no matter whether people who are currently sick quarantine themselves to their room or not. There will ALWAYS be people that won't, and every time one does, the thing basically regenerates across campus and hits a whole new series of people. It's slowing down finally, but it's been months with the same strain of flu. I see no reason why two weeks would stop anything unless somehow they manage to fly in a vaccine for every single person in the town at the same time a case is identified that can be given to everyone in two weeks. Which of course wouldn't happen, thanks to all the anti-vaccination nutballs that are out there now, as it's quite trendy to be anti-science.

    Speaking of, LOL@Trump firing the entire pandemic response team in 2018 so we don't have one now. He'll probably blame someone else if that becomes widely publicized.
     
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  14. MASS DEFECT

    MASS DEFECT SS.ORG Infiltrator

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    We got the first case of community spread in NorCal. Patient was infected locally just by going thru his normal daily routine. So, the spreader is out there. But yeah, no need to panic. But it does spread fast. So just clean your hands. My city is in state of emergency mode, and city workers like me are now designated as reserve disaster zone workers, and we are getting covid training tomorrow.
     
  15. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    I wouldn't want to downplay the human cost, and this IS a highly infectious virus. It's thankfully one with a very low mortality rate, maybe only modestly worse than the common flu, though we probably don't have the greatest handle on that as there's a lot of regional variation (it seems awfully high in Iran, for instance).

    But, thankfully, it looks like the economic impact is going to be far more significant than the human one, largely due to containment measures. China, South Korea, and Italy are both engaged in significant more-or-less lockdown containment measures to stop the spread of the virus, which is great, except they also represent something like 30% of total global economic output. With their economies temporarily running at something like 50-60% of capacity, that's lopping nearly 15% off global output already. A couple weeks isn't insurmountable, but do that for an entire quarter and that's a GDP contraction of nearly -3.75%. There should be some spring-back effect as production and pent up demand resumes, but services spending is lost, which is increasingly important to modern economies, notably ours. If this drags on for the rest of the quarter and we're still aggressively fighting to contain in April or May, outright global recession is a very real possibility.

    Which, I don't want to give the wrong impression, is 100% worth it if it saves any significant number of human lives. It's just the market this week belatedly woke up to the fact that yeah, supply chains are in tatters right now.
     
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  16. wankerness

    wankerness SS.org Regular

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    Yep, I work in IT and we're getting warned by vendors that replacing computer equipment is going to have a huge leadtime (already 6-8 weeks more than usual).
     
  17. Exchanger

    Exchanger SS.org Regular

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    That's what I meant, it made sense to initially try to contain it, but less so every day with every new region affected. We apparently got a case today here in Amsterdam. So I think now focus should go toward alleviating the symptoms / having proper care for those who need it, I never said it would be for free.

    Urrgghhh every time you think this twat can't be more indecent he proves you wrong.

    The flipside is that it seems to also decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Proponents of de-growth for environmental reasons rejoice !
     
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  18. Adieu

    Adieu SS.org Regular

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    2% is roughly your lifetime chance of dying in a traffic accident in a developed country

    And that's among diagnosed people...IF you get infected. AND diagnosed. And then try REALLY hard to die of it.

    Whole lotta noise about nothing much.

    Sh!t happens. Life has a 100% fatality rate anyway. Guaranteed.
     
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  19. narad

    narad Progressive metal and politics

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    Some are blanket "all gaijin". They're loving my tourism dollars out in Kansai right now though.
     
  20. MASS DEFECT

    MASS DEFECT SS.ORG Infiltrator

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    Korea has 4000+ cases because of very effective diagnosis techniques and tech. Im just here wondering how much is being unreported in China. Sort of like the Chernobyl meme.
     
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