Climate Change

Drew

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Much of what the earlier models predicted was based on the industrial practices at the time, and I recall the majority of them stating such. Even the idiotic sensationalist mainstream media at the time reflected that. Blaming scientists for getting that wrong is dumb. If your mom told you, as a kid, that you'd flunk out of school if you didn't do your homework, you can't do your homework and then say "I told you I wouldn't flunk out!"
Excellent metaphor.
 

lost_horizon

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@lost_horizon

I ask you questions because you are the only one trying to argue that everything else is wrong. If no one is allowed to ask for clarification, it's a huge red flag that you are just talking out of your ass.
Sources quoting multiple studies supplied for your clarification. Your opinion of talking out my ass is discarded. Have you ever published a scientific or research paper? it is immaterial whether I have or you have or not. Look at the information and come to a reasonable conclusion. I am not a science snob, all these papers are accessible for anyone to look at. Did you look at them and come to an alternate conclusion, that they were all accurate?
I'd suggest reading that first source more carefully. Or just generally either do research more carefully or else choose your arguments better. It's about how to improve the models, and it even makes it clear that it's not calling any of them out for being wrong.
For the Laymen:
"Global and regional warming trends over the course of the twentieth century have been nonuniform, with decadal and longer periods of faster or slower warming, or even cooling. Here we show that state-of-the-art global models used to predict climate fail to adequately reproduce such multidecadal climate variations. In particular, the models underestimate the magnitude of the observed variability and misrepresent its spatial pattern. Therefore, our ability to interpret the observed climate change using these models is limited."
As for methane... if it's 13x worse, but the increase in concentration is tens of thousands of times less, what does that mean? What is your point? Do you know what methane becomes when it oxidizes?
20210403_stc376.png
Methane hasn't met modelled methane, but who would've have expected models to be accurate. According to this graph, methane has major things to do with emissions. Methane has steadily gone up but even the lowest of those temperature increases haven't show up. Therefore it shouldn't be possible to have an earth this cool according to the NOAA at +0.84 C (as at 2021 below all other lines on that graph)) and have methane that high. Once again I didn't make these predictions, NOAA did. They were wrong.
Is this year 10 chemistry or my university Quantum Phenomena 2 class? Carbon Dioxide and Water. Absorbing less infra red per gram than methane.
Much of what the earlier models predicted was based on the industrial practices at the time, and I recall the majority of them stating such. Even the idiotic sensationalist mainstream media at the time reflected that. Blaming scientists for getting that wrong is dumb. If your mom told you, as a kid, that you'd flunk out of school if you didn't do your homework, you can't do your homework and then say "I told you I wouldn't flunk out!"
No, they were based upon one thing, increasing CO2 emissions causing increased temperature, less rain and more storms. CO2 emissions have increased. Warming has not increased as much as they said. They argued about how much warming would be for each ppm CO2, ranging from alot to a little. Even then the actual figure was much lower than the lowest band expected. Are you arguing they were not?
 

Drew

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No, they were based upon one thing, increasing CO2 emissions causing increased temperature, less rain and more storms. CO2 emissions have increased. Warming has not increased as much as they said. They argued about how much warming would be for each ppm CO2, ranging from alot to a little. Even then the actual figure was much lower than the lowest band expected. Are you arguing they were not?
Are you arguing that virtually every model didn't get the direction of the impact right, even if the initial modeling of the magnitude wasn't right?

It's not like the world is cooling and storms are getting more moderate.
 

zappatton2

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What an insane week! I've got a lot of family out in Nova Scotia, and a few in Florida too, the coverage has been terrifying to follow. Hope everyone around here who is in affected areas is going okay.

How long before this thread becomes the climate disaster check-in thread?
 

Drew

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What an insane week! I've got a lot of family out in Nova Scotia, and a few in Florida too, the coverage has been terrifying to follow. Hope everyone around here who is in affected areas is going okay.

How long before this thread becomes the climate disaster check-in thread?
Any day now, I'd say.

Initial estimates for Ian are at least 21 dead and damage in the $65-100B range, and the storm is just hitting North Carolina as a Cat 1, after strengthening over the ocean again. Should be one of the most expensive hurricanes on record at the rate things are going.
 

jaxadam

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A buddy of mine who lives in Cape Coral (where the storm came up 2 mph shy of a Cat 5) sent me these.

47EA19CC-07BB-4A5C-9831-407A81FAD4EB.jpg


5-DB3830-F-6050-41-D7-A72-A-C22-A9-A4-D18-C8.jpg


646-CE4-CC-2-FAA-40-B0-A0-C4-9-D0-B94-AD17-BD.jpg


76-CAF43-C-99-F1-4033-92-AA-FAFA0-F48848-E.jpg



A1-BFF64-C-8772-4-E5-F-AE8-A-C67373-BF200-F.jpg


A2-A6-A6-FB-88-AB-4382-A005-1-C7-CD360793-F.jpg
 

bostjan

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it is immaterial whether I have or you have or not.
OK. Then why bring this up?

Your quote from the article reinforces exactly what I've said. Maybe you think I'm saying something other than what I am saying or you think that the article is saying something other than what it's saying... I don't know.

A CO2 increase of 100 ppm was predicted to result in a temperature rise of 2 °C, so, I don't understand why <100 ppb of methane (1000x less amount at 14x more effect per unit concentration) would be predicted to result in more than 0.84 °C. Right? So, what's missing?
 

narad

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A buddy of mine who lives in Cape Coral (where the storm came up 2 mph shy of a Cat 5) sent me these.

47EA19CC-07BB-4A5C-9831-407A81FAD4EB.jpg


5-DB3830-F-6050-41-D7-A72-A-C22-A9-A4-D18-C8.jpg


646-CE4-CC-2-FAA-40-B0-A0-C4-9-D0-B94-AD17-BD.jpg


76-CAF43-C-99-F1-4033-92-AA-FAFA0-F48848-E.jpg



A1-BFF64-C-8772-4-E5-F-AE8-A-C67373-BF200-F.jpg


A2-A6-A6-FB-88-AB-4382-A005-1-C7-CD360793-F.jpg

Though being florida I'm not sure what these places looked like pre-hurricane :p
 

mmr007

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Wait.

You're not kidding.
No I am not. I don't know if it's the jewish space lasers or if Soros and the dems have developed another arsenal of weather changing devices that cause hurricanes that never happened before Kamala Harris was VP, but yes....we live in a world where articles that use to be in the Onion are now real.

I have never been for voter restrictions but seriously, people who believe this shit should not be allowed to vote.
 

wheresthefbomb

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No I am not. I don't know if it's the jewish space lasers or if Soros and the dems have developed another arsenal of weather changing devices that cause hurricanes that never happened before Kamala Harris was VP, but yes....we live in a world where articles that use to be in the Onion are now real.

I have never been for voter restrictions but seriously, people who believe this shit should not be allowed to vote.

well HAARP was defunded so it's gotta be something else
 

Drew

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No I am not. I don't know if it's the jewish space lasers or if Soros and the dems have developed another arsenal of weather changing devices that cause hurricanes that never happened before Kamala Harris was VP, but yes....we live in a world where articles that use to be in the Onion are now real.

I have never been for voter restrictions but seriously, people who believe this shit should not be allowed to vote.
The best two parts of this is the Deep State has developed a Weather Control Device, and 1) they're using it to influence presidential elections, rather than inventing an Election Control Device, which of course the far-right thinks the Deep State already has otherwise Trump would have won, and 2) the best way they could think of to use their Weather Control Device to influence an election was running a hurricane through Ft Meyers in September. :lol:
 

mmr007

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I wish the democratic deep state would use those rain making machines over here in California. Do I have to think of everything around here? Jeez....
 

wheresthefbomb

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It never got funded at all

EDIT: broken link to Haarp Machine Indiegogo

EDIT 2: I give up


I used to do a radio show called Drone Church 8am monday mornings (gotta hit that drive time commute), mostly drone metal with a smattering of other heavies and a blend of satirical and actual news

for a while we were claiming to be running a bake sale to raise the $7.5m operating budget to keep HAARP open, got a lot of kooky phonecall s about that one
 

Glades

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Well put. This is exactly what happened here.
 

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