Anyone actively Invest?

[mastapimp]

I am in a cult, it's a cult guys. A math cult, an unchangeable unstoppable math cult. Look out.

You're pushing this like your life depends on it. In fact, you could say the more people you "convert" to bitcoin the more it gets bought up and the value increases, which would be great for you and your fellow coiners.

I've checked in on this thread every few days and you've made zero progress espousing your beliefs. How long are you going to keep banging your head against a wall?

 

[penguin_316]

My life doesn't depend on it, it's an insurance policy against all the nonsense they are pushing in the world. I have a career, home, cars, 401k, etc. I also, own insurance on all of those items and with Bitcoin I have insurance against the dollar. Feel free to do what you wish, when the tide rolls out we'll see who's swimming naked.

We cannot allow the us treasury bond yield to rise much more or we won't be able to repay the interest on that debt. To artificially keep those rates low requires yield control (that is, "printing" money out nothing and becoming the buyer of last resort for anyone selling their treasuries). The US is in a much better spot relative to other countries but it must debase the dollar to keep up the ponzi. It is just one of many reasons they must expand the monetary supply.

I guess no one watched the video I linked earlier.

 

[tedtan]

Unfortunately, if you don't understand what it means to hold your own keys(and how simple it is) I can't take you seriously. Bitcoin's blind spots are few and far between, with time the dominance increases. Please tell me how a new network will emerge with better incentives, that has no leader and mimics bitcoin. Unfortunately, the cat is out of the bag. The distribution and things people did in the early years of bitcoin cannot be duplicated.

And before Bitcoin none of that was possibe. But technology advanced, as it does, and Bitcoin came to be. And as technology continues to advance, new opportunities will come about, too. It’s the way of the world. And while your “has no leader and mimics bitcoin” may be a feature that some look for, it isn’t a requirement of a new opportunity.

I am in a cult, it's a cult guys. A math cult, an unchangeable unstoppable math cult. Look out.

Bitcoin isn’t a cult. What’s cult-like is your behavior. And if anything, it is a cult of myopia - you drank the Kool Aid and ignore everything except the positives of Bitcoin, but in reality, there is a whole world of possibilities out there.

Do me a favor, give me your best investment ideas with a $10,000 allotment. It can be anything, a house or equities, holding cash(whatever you wish, the sky is the limit).

I'll put my $10,000 of bitcoin today at $28,631 vs. Anything you can throw at me. Remind me, 4+ years....I know how the story goes, do you? That is 0.349 btc.

I'm interested to see what you have in mind. Unless of course, you don't have anything in mind. I expect it to go down to possibly even $8,000ish in the near future. So let's hear it, despite that what do you have that will beat it come May 27, 2026?

I’m not sure where this straw man came from, but I never said Bitcoin is a bad investment. Just that you should realize that it is not the be all, end all you make it out to be.

 

[penguin_316]

There won't be another Bitcoin. It's not drinking the Kool Aid to understand something with the properties it has and the features can only be created once. After that, the distribution of anything new would be all out of sorts due to the knowledge of Bitcoin existing previous.

Having no leader is key. All previous attempts at digital money all failed for the same reason: centralization of the network. Leaders are additional attack surfaces and are human after all. We already have a system where 12 individuals in a room choose the fate of our lives. We don't need another system to recreate the exact same situation.

 

[TedEH]

There won't be another Bitcoin

Isn't there something like 10k competing cryptocurrencies, even if you ignore the dead ones? NFTs aren't a thing? ETH isn't a thing? The whole proof-of-stake conversation isn't a thing? I'm sure you'll have some hand-wave-y reasons why they're irrelevant.

Leaders are additional attack surfaces and are human after all.

I thought we didn't care about security or potential attack vectors as long as we're following the rules of the system?

 

[penguin_316]

70% of ETH supply is in the hands of roughly 100 people. Vitalik, the charismatic leader is an extreme weak point. Its been hard forked at the users expense due to pooor coding, etc. The list is actually enless with that one. It's the original shit coin, and mimics the current system we have.

We care about attack vectors of the protocol. We don't care if people foolishly give away their money. I'm sure you use debit or credit cards on the daily, despite endless scams being linked to their usage. You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.

 

[TedEH]

I'm sure you use debit or credit cards on the daily, despite endless scams being linked to their usage

I do, but they have systems to protect their users in the inevitable case that something goes wrong.

I actually did have some bitcoin for a while. It even increased in value while I held it. Then the company/exchange I had used (which was known as the biggest crypto exchange in Canada at the time) went bankrupt, the owner died, and hundreds of millions of dollars (including my bitcoin) just vanished into the void that is the internet. There's no way I could have known it would happen, and there was nothing I could do about it. As far as anyone would have said at the time, this was a reputable and trustworthy entity at the time.

This would never happen with my "traditional" accounts. The worst that's ever happened to me was that some kind of mistake was made, there was some mild frustration, then it was fixed, and everyone moved on with their lives. We have corrective measures for scams and mistakes because both of those things are an inevitability regardless of your currency/system.

You might say "well, that's just you". To which I would say you're just as much basing your angle on your own experience, and ignoring any other anecdotes. I'm sure bitcoin works great for you. That's great. All the power to you. It still has it's problems.

 

[penguin_316]

Step one of bitcoin is buy bitcoin. Step two is to take control of your keys and get control of your money. While it is shitty that happened to you, the entire point is to take control of your money.

Sorry you got screwed by Quadriga.
Sorry people got screwed with Silk Road.
Sorry people got screwed with Luna.
Sorry people are about to get screwed with Celcius.
Too many to post really, I think you get my drift. Shady things surrounding a new industry. None of them actually have anything to do with Bitcoin.

Don't trust, verify.

 

[TedEH]

Too many to post really, I think you get my drift. Shady things surrounding a new industry. None of them actually have anything to do with Bitcoin.

Except they have everything to do with bitcoin because you need to go through an exchange like that to get it in the first place, and the average person isn't going to know to take the money off the platform, I didn't end up moving my money off-site because a) the bitcoin zealots at the time assured me it was as safe as it gets and b) the fees involved with the transfer were pretty ridiculous.

The fact you have so many examples to cite should be a red flag.

 

[penguin_316]

It's easy to blame others for your own mistakes. I had a brand new ibby prestige 8 string with bare knuckles a few years ago, $2500ish or more...

My hooligan nephew was staying with me for a few months, long story short he stole it from under my bed. I didn't quit playing guitar though, and I didn't ever get it back. However, I did change how I stored my valuables.

"Not your keys, not your coins" has been around forever. Even in the earliest of Bitcoin days. I have alot of examples because people are lazy/ignorant/gullible etc...I doubt society ever gets away from the concept of scammers and conartists.

 

[TedEH]

I have alot of examples because people are lazy/ignorant/gullible etc...I doubt society ever gets away from the concept of scammers and conartists.

This, but take it and turn it around the other way. A system that doesn't provide for this reality can't be adopted by those same people. I'd ask how the owner of Quadriga dying is "my mistake", but I don't think I have any interest in how you'd answer that.

But now you got me more curious about stolen guitars - how does one lose a 2k item to a family member and have nothing they can do about it? I can think of ways, but I'm more interested in the story there. Is this someone you had reason to distrust in the first place? I'd guess so if you were hiding things under the bed.

 

[penguin_316]

Quadriga was basically a ponzi scheme, and there are a few movies/documentaries about it. The guy was using people's money as his own and living the high life. He was a shady guy and did shady things. Your mistake isn't that he died or whatever. Your mistake is trusting any exchange beyond the initial transaction.

Not your keys, not your coins.

No one's hiding things under there bed. I have a fuckton of guitars, amps, etc. In order to access them quickly I usually have a few stacked under the bed in cases. What do you want me to do? Sue him? Call the cops? I did the right thing. He was a high schooler at the time. I told him he may have gotten away with it this time, but in the real world this is considered a felony. So there you go, cool story bro.

 

[TedEH]

What do you want me to do?

To tell the story, 'cause you left a whole lot of unanswered questions. Why couldn't you get it back? Did he leave the country? Did he sell it?

Sue him? Call the cops?

I mean, yeah, if someone stole 2k from me, I'd absolutely at the very least file a police complaint. And if it was family, I likely know where they live and can go retrieve my stuff.

I did the right thing.

Which is what? Let him get away with it?

He was a high schooler at the time. I told him he may have gotten away with it this time, but in the real world this is considered a felony.

High schooler or not, he DOES live in the real world. Maybe the law works differently there, but his legal guardians would have still been responsible for the crime here. You don't strike me as the kind of person to just let 2k go for no reason.

 

[penguin_316]

It was more like 3k with the pickups etc. Yea, I let it go. He already had plenty of legal issues. I did him a solid by letting him stay over while he got his shit together. Only he never did and stole stuff as well. I did the right thing by letting it go. Nothing was going to come of it, and lessons were learned all around.

 

[jaxadam]

It was more like 3k with the pickups etc. Yea, I let it go. He already had plenty of legal issues. I did him a solid by letting him stay over while he got his shit together. Only he never did and stole stuff as well. I did the right thing by letting it go. Nothing was going to come of it, and lessons were learned all around.

This is like… as vague as your penchant for bitcoin.

 

[penguin_316]

Dollar Cost Averaging Bitcoin - dcaBTC

Dollar cost averaging Bitcoin is a popular strategy. This bitcoin investment calculator shows the return of a BTC DCA strategy.

dcabtc.com

Allocate accordingly, you're going to wake up in 10+ years and think "damn, why am I so closed minded". Can't say I didn't warn you....there us nothing vague about buying bitcoin on the cheap while you can. It's pretty cut and dry. Learn about it later, the opportunity won't be here for long.

 

[Drew]

Not so much trolling, you just come across like a newly joined cult member evangelizing to the unwashed masses about how great your cult is, brushing off the points they bring up because they are easily addressed, all the while failing to address those points, instead reading the talking points from the back of the Kool Aid package you just drank.

No one has said that Bitcoin is bad, just that it may well not be as perfect as you’re making it out to be. I’ll add that you want to put down the Kool Aid and try to be reasonable and objective - what happens when the next big thing comes along with even better incentives?

Yeah, I'm checking out of this thread, at least with respect to bitcoin. I don't know if it's a matter of faith or something else here, but when you're debating the merits of a high-volatility asset class with someone who absolutely refuses to recognize that volatility being high is another way of saying valuations are very uncertain, and if you don't agree it's because you, and not he, are uninformed, well... I do love tilting at windmills as much as the next guy, but I've already wasted too much time on this thread.

Unless of course someone else, with capacity for critical thought, can provide a concise explanation of why demand for bitcoin is guaranteed to increase with time, of course. Short of that, though, I just don't give enough of a shit about the subject of bitcoin to keep trying to discuss this with someone who wants to make giant sweeping generalizations and optimistic projections and won't get into actual detail.

 

[Drew]

One observation on the broader economy, for those who are investing here.

I've been of the belief that we're going to see an economic slowdown in the second half of the year/start of 2023 for a while now. Saying that as a background.

Last week saw some renewed strength out of the equity markets, with commentators pointing to the fact that firmness was pretty broad, and we didn't see a selloff in energy (which had done well, on the back of higher oil prices) in favor of names and sectors that were rebounding. And, while to be fair we're off about a percent today, that's a valid point and is a bit encouraging.

But I think one of the things that has to be kept in mind here is in many ways (and in part because we have a federal reserve very focused on clarity of communication right now, in far cry from the Greenspan days) the market is leading the economy, and not vice versa. Fed officials have estimated that with the rate at which the Fed Funds futures market, and the term structure of Treasury rates, have moved to price in the expected Fed Funds rate path indicated by the Fed's median dot plot, we're in an environment that's seen the equivalent of about two additional rate hikes beyond what the Fed has actually done, and that the market is helping the Fed, essentially, tighten monetary conditions.

I kind of wonder if we're going to start seeing that in tomorrow's JOLTS job openings report. The startup space is already contracting - you don't have to go much beyond 25 year old "entrepreneurs" making "is this your first economic downturn? Here are five tips!" Tiktok videos, but mid- and late-tier startups have already begun cutting headcount, and of the friends I have in this space, thankfully all have been told their jobs are safe, but that their firms are putting hiring freezes in place and halting plans to expand. Startups are a very economy-sensitive class of businesses for a number of reasons - surge during the good times, implode during the bad - and I think we may be seeing the beginning of firms stopping hiring like it's going out of style, and doing some serious belt-tightening.

The disparity between the JOLTS report estimation of open positions, and the size of the unemployed workforce, has garnered a lot of attention - if that ratio were to contract pretty significantly over the summer to more "normal" levels, that'd buy the Fed some breathing room, I think. But, to put a slightly finer point on it, the market belatedly starting to freak out about the possibility of a recession, could start to cause very recession-looking things to start happening to labor demand.

 

[penguin_316]

To he honest, you are exhausting. I've listed multiple reasons for the protocol to continue expanding at the current rate. Incentives rule the world, not your opinion.

It all comes down to trust. Reread what I've written prior, there is no point rehashing it. Bitcoin strengthens energy grids, encourages miners to secure the network, and allows individuals to sit outside of our currencies active debasement.

Trying to guess the direction of the markets in the short term is irrelevant once you understand the debt spiral the US dollar is facing. There are only two outcomes: default on the debt and lose power OR print our way out of the problem and kick the can down the road.

The problem is accelerating and must be met with exponentially more monetary expansion to combat the issue. In a nutshell, we're in the starting moments of a 2001 style recession which will need to have large scale government interventions to return to equilibrium. Yet, you can't financially engineer your way our of just in time supply chains. If you think supply chains will fix themselves overnight, I have s bridge to sell you.

 

[Drew]

I'm "exhausting" because I keep asking you to provide some sort of concrete evidence for your belief. Whatever, I honestly don't give enough of a shit to keep this up, you can believe in whatever wildly optimistic application of magic fairy dust it takes for demand for anything to be sure to grow unabated. Suit yourself.