# Is the musical instrument bubble about to burst?



## mbardu (Oct 29, 2020)

So....everyone and their second cousin have been buying instrument since the start of the pandemic, right?

Custom builders have had full order books this year, techs I know have been underwater with work. Reverb prices have trended higher and higher with no end in sight for months, even on basic stuff - and yet things are still selling pretty quickly (at least until last month or so...). Speculation is rampant at TGP/Reverb. Record sales at GuitarCenter. Lots of stuff on backorder or OOS at places like Sweetwater.

It makes sense after all, everyone was looking to start or re-start a musical hobby.

What happens in 6 months when 90% of people realize that guitar is not really (or really not) for them and/or when more people are back at work? When the economic reality of the pandemic takes an even worse toll than it already has and people have to liquidate their expensive instruments?

Will there be a flood of used instruments on the market?
Will small builders struggle to make ends meet?
Put on your thinking cap and come speculate


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## Mathemagician (Oct 29, 2020)

You can hope for a flood, but I think a lot of people found more free time. And a lot of jobs are never going to return to “5 days in the office a week”. I sure as fuck have no intention of doing so and my commute is 10 minutes. 

That lack of commute for many people equals more time for family and hobbies. 

Will be interesting how the next two or so years pan out in so many ways.


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## Demiurge (Oct 29, 2020)

I'm keeping the guitars I bought. My wife wanted to learn to play and bought a guitar herself, but hasn't touched it once during lockdown. I can see it both ways.


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## BenjaminW (Oct 29, 2020)

I think realistically and quite honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if there's a flood of used instruments on the market once things truly start to go back to normal. The way I see it is that there's gonna be two kinds of people: The ones who picked up an instrument and stick with it whilst things return to normal, and the ones who pick up an instrument and think that they'll stick with it, but will eventually get bogged down by work and/or school. 

I personally haven't bought any guitars in the last few months, but I am curious as to whether I should keep sitting on guitars I want that are on back order or if I should do something else to cure my GAS.


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## budda (Oct 29, 2020)

The real question is will they all be listed for $50 less than new, new or reasonable prices?


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## MaxOfMetal (Oct 29, 2020)

Mathemagician said:


> You can hope for a flood, but I think a lot of people found more free time. And a lot of jobs are never going to return to “5 days in the office a week”. I sure as fuck have no intention of doing so and my commute is 10 minutes.
> 
> That lack of commute for many people equals more time for family and hobbies.
> 
> Will be interesting how the next two or so years pan out in so many ways.



This.

Most places aren't going to be moving back to regular hours any time soon if ever.

Pretty much all the speculation since the start of the pandemic has been wrong:

- Huge discounts on new gear. Never happened.
- Mass sell offs. Never happened.
- Prices on used stuff bottoming out. Never happened.

The truth of the matter is, most folks buying the kinds of guitars that hobbiests and enthusiasts tend to play (stuff in the $1k and above range) weren't as severely impacted financially by the pandemic, which fell much more sharply on service industry workers, and folks who already fell within the lower 25% of income, and those folks weren't buying tons of gear anyway.

One of the primary reasons for all the out of stocks and delays was the stoppage of the supply chain, even American and European manufacturers rely heavily on parts sourced in Asia which took shutdowns far more seriously.

There will always be edge cases, but overall I don't see a significant rise or fall in the near term. Guitars aren't a commodity.


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## TedEH (Oct 29, 2020)

It hadn't occurred to me that people would be buying more instruments right now, but I guess it makes sense now that I think about it. I've definitely heard some friends say they were going to try learning an instrument again, but they already had them.

I've honestly gotten pretty comfortable with the working-from-home arrangement, so I'd find it pretty difficult to give up the extra time and flexibility of it. But yeah... maybe you're right.... maybe now is a great time to buy more guitars....


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## budda (Oct 29, 2020)

On a forum, it's always the best time to buy more guitars.

Signed,

5 ngd's this year


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## SpaceDock (Oct 29, 2020)

Jeez, am I missing something? Who is working less than normal hours since the pandemic? Maybe I am super lucky but that 15 minute each way commute is the only extra time I have.


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## budda (Oct 29, 2020)

SpaceDock said:


> Jeez, am I missing something? Who is working less than normal hours since the pandemic? Maybe I am super lucky but that 15 minute each way commute is the only extra time I have.



Quite a lot of people.

On the flip side is people like me who worked overtime 9 out of the 10 months of 2020. Some people think thats great, others understand that real breaks are a good thing.

If I can find gear I want used at decent prices, I wont be mad.


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## Steinmetzify (Oct 29, 2020)

budda said:


> The real question is will they all be listed for $50 less than new, new or reasonable prices?



This. 

‘Barely even used, still has the plastic on the back. I paid $999, I need $985”


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## budda (Oct 29, 2020)

steinmetzify said:


> This.
> 
> ‘Barely even used, still has the plastic on the back. I paid $999, I need $985”



Been seeing that already, but no idea if its pandemic buyers or not.


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## Hollowway (Oct 29, 2020)

Idk about the pandemic, but eventually the economy will stop expanding, and we’ll see more guitars on the market. We’ve been in a good economy for years. The deals over the past 8 years have gotten way more scarce. Good ones are snapped up within an hour or two on the verb.


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## Necris (Oct 29, 2020)

I think Max pretty well covered it but on the topic of people looking to pick up a hobby specifically you may see an increase in Squiers and Ibanez Gios on Craigslist but there's already an ebb and flow to entry level instruments coming up for sale during the transition between summer break and the school year. If you were going to get any sort of deluge of used gear the entry level is the price range it would probably happen in. Considering the Coronavirus second wave seems to be all but assured as we head into winter and we have no idea how much of an impact that will have I'd imagine things are still too uncertain right now for a lot of people to really justify any big investments into a hobby, especially new ones.


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## MaxOfMetal (Oct 29, 2020)

SpaceDock said:


> Jeez, am I missing something? Who is working less than normal hours since the pandemic? Maybe I am super lucky but that 15 minute each way commute is the only extra time I have.



Depends on the industry and job of course, but it seems a lot of general office jobs have moved remote, so the amount of work is the same, but not being tied to a commute and desk means more free time.

Haven't you seen all the Zoom memes?

Anecdotally, something like 2000 people at the company I work at are still working remotely and it's pretty much the industry standard right now.


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## SpaceDock (Oct 29, 2020)

I have been working at home since March 13th but am still tied to the desk all day long, so no extra time except lack of short commute. In Teams meetings and still just working all day no different than prepandemic.


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## MaxOfMetal (Oct 29, 2020)

SpaceDock said:


> I have been working at home since March 13th but am still tied to the desk all day long, so no extra time except lack of short commute. In Teams meetings and still just working all day no different than prepandemic.



And I've been working non-stop, literally 12/7, but that's definitely not the norm.


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## budda (Oct 29, 2020)

MaxOfMetal said:


> And I've been working non-stop, literally 12/7, but that's definitely not the norm.



Take a break, you earned it.


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## USMarine75 (Oct 30, 2020)

budda said:


> On a forum, it's always the best time to buy more guitars.
> 
> Signed,
> 
> 5 ngd's this year



I replied to a TGP post about listing what gear you bought since the start of the pandemic and I legit felt guilty lol.


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## _MonSTeR_ (Oct 30, 2020)

Rich Harris posted in Jemsite that Guitar Center has declared chapter 11 again, so they weren’t selling _that_ many guitars 

I’m still working from home, my ‘music room’ is now my ‘office’ and my working hours have expanded to fill my previous commute time. But I’m saving on petrol money (good thing with U.K. fuel prices). But I’m saving that money not spending it. 

I think that the bubble will contract but not burst; those people buying Suhrs and Fender Custom Shop Guitars will continue to do so and those aspects will do well, but I predict the Schecter imports and Ibanez Premiums will be the ones to take a hit as we move forwards.

I hope I’m wrong.


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## budda (Oct 30, 2020)

USMarine75 said:


> I replied to a TGP post about listing what gear you bought since the start of the pandemic and I legit felt guilty lol.



I basically "caught up" after putting everything into a band. But there was a reason: home studio selection. I made my EP utilizing most of my purchases.


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## Demiurge (Oct 30, 2020)

_MonSTeR_ said:


> I’m still working from home, my ‘music room’ is now my ‘office’ and my working hours have expanded to fill my previous commute time.



Yeah, this is pretty much my situation, too. Of course what happens is that I spend my workday longingly gazing at my gear, but after logging-off I feel like I've gotta get out of that room. I frankly thought that I would be better at work/life balance in this situation, but it's still so much better than reporting to the office.


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## soul_lip_mike (Oct 30, 2020)

budda said:


> On a forum, it's always the best time to buy more guitars.
> 
> Signed,
> 
> 5 ngd's this year



hell yea man! 3 for me, 4 if you include a deposit on a “custom’ ESP USA arriving in a few months.


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## diagrammatiks (Oct 30, 2020)

Hollowway said:


> Idk about the pandemic, but eventually the economy will stop expanding, and we’ll see more guitars on the market. We’ve been in a good economy for years. The deals over the past 8 years have gotten way more scarce. Good ones are snapped up within an hour or two on the verb.



reverb really killed a lot of good deals man. 

used to be before someone only knew like one or two forums so their stuff would only be posted on like tgp or rig-talk. and it would just sit. I used to be able to pick up Andersons for 1400-1500.

then after reverb that stuff is gone in 5 minutes.


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## Edika (Oct 30, 2020)

One other thing I noticed is that the people whose jobs were not in danger, by working from home and not socializing they actually were spending less. So more disposable income for guitars .

There was a similar projection about the housing market in the UK, that it would slow down and house prices would drop, but instead it is booming at the moment.


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## TedEH (Oct 30, 2020)

Now that I think about it - for every people I know of with extra free time and spending money because of working from home, there's an equivalent person who was instead out of a job or forced to adapt in a way that had the opposite effect. I've got all the time in the world to play more guitar now, and have enjoyed having guitars on me pretty much as I work (type a bit, noodle some riffs, type some more, noodle some more) - but retail and service jobs are still taking a hit. Lots of businesses didn't survive through the lockdown, and the places that are still open are not seeing the kinds of traffic they did before. Two of the places I used to frequent are closed permanently.

So I think it balances out. For some, this has been a great opportunity and a great time to invest in hobbies, but for others.... this has been, and continues to be, the worst possible time to allocate funds to recreation.


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## budda (Oct 30, 2020)

soul_lip_mike said:


> hell yea man! 3 for me, 4 if you include a deposit on a “custom’ ESP USA arriving in a few months.



Already thinking about selling 1 or 2. The number is high too because i bought a cheaper acoustic, didnt bond, got a nicer one .


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## mbardu (Oct 30, 2020)

_MonSTeR_ said:


> Rich Harris posted in Jemsite that Guitar Center has declared chapter 11 again, so they weren’t selling _that_ many guitars
> 
> I’m still working from home, my ‘music room’ is now my ‘office’ and my working hours have expanded to fill my previous commute time. But I’m saving on petrol money (good thing with U.K. fuel prices). But I’m saving that money not spending it.
> 
> ...



Guitarcenter management is terrible, but they _have been_ posting record sales. By a good margin. And they're not the only ones.

https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-wes...ees-surge-instrument-sales-and-recording-tech

https://guitar.com/news/industry-news/guitar-center-hollywood-sales-increase-covid-19/

https://www.guitarplayer.com/news/fender-posts-record-breaking-sales-in-2020


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## MaxOfMetal (Oct 30, 2020)

There's a difference in having a bump or dip in the market vs. something more extreme like a bubble bursting implies. 

You gotta take articles like that with a grain of salt, most of these guitar companies are still privately held, so it's not like we can see anything outside of rosy reports from CEOs.


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## diagrammatiks (Oct 30, 2020)

record sales also doesn't mean you can't go bankrupt.


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## mbardu (Oct 30, 2020)

diagrammatiks said:


> record sales also doesn't mean you can't go bankrupt.



For sure. Record sales doesn't mean that you can't go bankrupt. But unlike what the other poster implied, going bankrupt doesn't mean that you cannot have record sales either.

As mentioned, their management is pretty bad still, and at least from subjective experience, they're also having just as many returns as they're having sales.
Which kinda actually contributed to the "bubble" thought tbh.


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## _MonSTeR_ (Oct 30, 2020)

mbardu said:


> For sure. Record sales doesn't mean that you can't go bankrupt. But unlike what the other poster implied, going bankrupt doesn't mean that you cannot have record sales either.
> 
> As mentioned, their management is pretty bad still, and at least from subjective experience, they're also having just as many returns as they're having sales.
> Which kinda actually contributed to the "bubble" thought tbh.



You _inferred_, I didn’t _imply. _

I meant exactly what you have posted here. Going bankrupt doesn’t mean you can’t have record sales. Just that in this case, those record sales _still_ weren’t enough to keep them from filing for Chapter 11.


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## mbardu (Oct 30, 2020)

_MonSTeR_ said:


> You _inferred_, I didn’t _imply. _
> 
> I meant exactly what you have posted here. Going bankrupt doesn’t mean you can’t have record sales. Just that in this case, those record sales _still_ weren’t enough to keep them from filing for Chapter 11.



My bad if that's not what you meant  . From the tone of your message I had misunderstood your intention it seems!


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## spudmunkey (Oct 30, 2020)

I wonder if it will be any different than any other hobby. Cooking, baking, woodworking, sewing, painting, knitting, etc have all seen SIP up-ticks.


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## Celtic Frosted Flakes (Nov 4, 2020)

SpaceDock said:


> Jeez, am I missing something? Who is working less than normal hours since the pandemic? Maybe I am super lucky but that 15 minute each way commute is the only extra time I have.



I don't spend two hours every day chatting with colleagues by the coffee machine when working at home, so I spend those hours on my hobbies instead. And I still manage to be more productive at home even though I work less hours.


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## Tracker_Buckmann (Mar 8, 2021)

With CNC machining the price of instruments is coming way down. I recently bought my girlfriend a 'Firefly' semihollow guitar that's modeled off of a gipson 335- amazing guitar. I liked it so much that I'm going to buy a similar model so i can get some of that controlled feedback going on.

My main guitar right now is a schecter banchee elite, so I'm not exactly a cheapskate. The reality is, technology is making music much more accessible. I believe this is a trend that will relate to many products, and that's a good thing. It's probably the only thing that's going to save us from massive inflation.

Go price a gipson birdland or a 335 and then price a 'firefly' or a 'grote.' There will always be a market for handmade instruments, but it will be more of a novelty rather than a practicality.

Besides, I'm pretty sure a lot of companies are already doing this. So unless you're buying a $10k guitar, it was probably machined by a programmer.


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## budda (Mar 8, 2021)

Inflation says prices are not coming down. Cheaper guitars are better, but prices are not coming down.


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## mmr007 (Mar 8, 2021)

Its the abundance of disposable income and that will change soon. I disagree (my opinion) that everyone not communting allows free time to start up a hobby like guitar and that remote work continuing as a trend will allow to keep guitar prices high. The fact is the number one thing we spend money on is eating out and drinking...habits that have been near impossible. I can buy 2 epiphones a month or a gibson every other month on what I save on not going out to dinner on weekends...bringing home dinner during the week...not going out for drinks after work...throw in that amusement parks, movie theaters, museums and just plain old vacation spots are closed or not worth going to during pandemic. There may be a permanent shift towards more remote or satellite workplaces but once people start spending again, there will be less money for guitars no matter how short your new commute is.


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## MaxOfMetal (Mar 8, 2021)

Tracker_Buckmann said:


> With CNC machining the price of instruments is coming way down. I recently bought my girlfriend a 'Firefly' semihollow guitar that's modeled off of a gipson 335- amazing guitar. I liked it so much that I'm going to buy a similar model so i can get some of that controlled feedback going on.
> 
> My main guitar right now is a schecter banchee elite, so I'm not exactly a cheapskate. The reality is, technology is making music much more accessible. I believe this is a trend that will relate to many products, and that's a good thing. It's probably the only thing that's going to save us from massive inflation.
> 
> ...



The widespread use of CNC has definitely changed the guitar manufacturing landscape, primarily in what skill sets are needed and helping to reduce time tables while also allowing for certain specs to move down market. 

But, the biggest determinant of price at retail will almost always come down to three things: scale of production, labor costs, and line pricing. 

As amazing as CNC mills are, they don't extrude complete instruments, they still need operators to setup, monitor, and change over, as well as the ancillary staff to prep the materials and perform maintenance.


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## fantom (Mar 9, 2021)

mmr007 said:


> Its the abundance of disposable income and that will change soon. I disagree (my opinion) that everyone not communting allows free time to start up a hobby like guitar and that remote work continuing as a trend will allow to keep guitar prices high. The fact is the number one thing we spend money on is eating out and drinking...habits that have been near impossible. I can buy 2 epiphones a month or a gibson every other month on what I save on not going out to dinner on weekends...bringing home dinner during the week...not going out for drinks after work...throw in that amusement parks, movie theaters, museums and just plain old vacation spots are closed or not worth going to during pandemic. There may be a permanent shift towards more remote or satellite workplaces but once people start spending again, there will be less money for guitars no matter how short your new commute is.



Don't forget about vacation. 3-4 plane tickets, a hotel room, and a rental car. That can buy a nice piece of gear.

Some people have more time, and some people have more money. Not sure if many people are in both categories.


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## StevenC (Mar 10, 2021)

MaxOfMetal said:


> The widespread use of CNC has definitely changed the guitar manufacturing landscape, primarily in what skill sets are needed and helping to reduce time tables while also allowing for certain specs to move down market.
> 
> But, the biggest determinant of price at retail will almost always come down to three things: scale of production, labor costs, and line pricing.
> 
> As amazing as CNC mills are, they don't extrude complete instruments, they still need operators to setup, monitor, and change over, as well as the ancillary staff to prep the materials and perform maintenance.


Not only this, but a 335 is a very bad example of a guitar that is less labour intensive due to CNC automation. You've got the neck as on every other factory guitar and maybe some of the rough shapes of the body parts, but those have always been the easier bits of making a 335.


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## MaxOfMetal (Mar 10, 2021)

StevenC said:


> Not only this, but a 335 is a very bad example of a guitar that is less labour intensive due to CNC automation. You've got the neck as on every other factory guitar and maybe some of the rough shapes of the body parts, but those have always been the easier bits of making a 335.



Anything with a carved top has benefited from CNC, but yeah, it's not like 335s are archtops, they're basically big Les Pauls.


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## StevenC (Mar 10, 2021)

MaxOfMetal said:


> Anything with a carved top has benefited from CNC, but yeah, it's not like 335s are archtops, they're basically big Les Pauls.


Correct me if I'm wrong, 335s are laminated and pressed, right?


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## MaxOfMetal (Mar 10, 2021)

StevenC said:


> Correct me if I'm wrong, 335s are laminated and pressed, right?



Cheapos are often just carved, but yeah, the original laminate ones are pressed, it's just not many Chinese and Indo shops do it that way. It's easier to just carve it out of a slightly thicker billet vs. needing the specialized setup for that one particular shape/model.


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