# Anyone actively Invest?



## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

We don’t have to talk specifics, but I’m curious how many folks supplement cash flow with investments? 

I’m trying to teach my adult children to work on it daily. In the modern age, clicking buttons on a phone can do some amazing things. I’m active in options and blockchain, daily.


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## Crungy (Mar 25, 2022)

I've been interested in bitcoin and the like but haven't devoted enough time to research it.


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## mechanyx (Mar 25, 2022)

I know a lot about investing but I don't really invest. I make all my money trading. I quit my day job a few years ago. My last job was not in finance but several of my previous jobs were.


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## jaxadam (Mar 25, 2022)

I have a buddy that is killing it on crypto. He's got all kinds of shit going on and he tries to explain it to me and I'm totally lost. I have been toying with the idea of taking 10 or 20 grand and just fucking off with it in the crypto space.

I don't pay attention to anything and just write checks for whatever my accountant says!


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## Choop (Mar 25, 2022)

In college about 7ish years ago I was broke but interested in stock, and was wondering whether I should get on some AMD stock; at the time it was like ~$13 a share. I wish I had .-. ...as of today it's going for $117 a share. Though I guess I didn't have enough money to make it a truly worthwhile investment, anyway.


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## Adieu (Mar 25, 2022)

I had $10 in stocks, modeling a $10k investment

Now I have $8.53 in stocks


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## sleewell (Mar 25, 2022)

I max out my 401k and also have a roth ira. steady contributions every pay period. both are doing quite well. employer has a nice match on the 401k which helps too. 

I'm far too dumb for picking individual stocks or day trading. 

crypto kinda seems like a scam to me. like the top whales really control it all and dictate how the price moves.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

Crungy said:


> I've been interested in bitcoin and the like but haven't devoted enough time to research it.


It just ripped nicely. Keep an eye on BTC, it’s the grandma of them all


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> I have a buddy that is killing it on crypto. He's got all kinds of shit going on and he tries to explain it to me and I'm totally lost. I have been toying with the idea of taking 10 or 20 grand and just fucking off with it in the crypto space.
> 
> I don't pay attention to anything and just write checks for whatever my accountant says!


It’s totally worth getting yourself a simple account, like CB Pro, and just watch shit on a Sunday night at 3AM-7AM. That’s prime time, you’ll learn lots visually


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

sleewell said:


> I max out my 401k and also have a roth ira. steady contributions every pay period. both are doing quite well. employer has a nice match on the 401k which helps too.
> 
> I'm far too dumb for picking individual stocks or day trading.
> 
> crypto kinda seems like a scam to me. like the top whales really control it all and dictate how the price moves.


You are right about that. The whales are a pain, but if you watch them close enough, you can Aikido their asses


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

Choop said:


> In college about 7ish years ago I was broke but interested in stock, and was wondering whether I should get on some AMD stock; at the time it was like ~$13 a share. I wish I had .-. ...as of today it's going for $117 a share. Though I guess I didn't have enough money to make it a truly worthwhile investment, anyway.


AMD paid for so many guitars, lol. Spot on


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## tedtan (Mar 25, 2022)

I’m currently looking to semi retire through some commercial real estate investments (in addition to other investments I’ve made over the past couple of decades).


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

Had an amazing three week turn on one ticker. 219 became 790, as of Tuesday (exercised). Gains tax will eat me, but it’s worth it.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

tedtan said:


> I’m currently looking to semi retire through some commercial real estate investments (in addition to other investments I’ve made over the past couple of decades).


Real Estate is absolutely killing it. Makes S&P500 look like the kiddie table


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

Focus on those 250k-700k homes, and the 1M+ with large property, that shit sells for greater than asking, and the listing never lasts more than 2 days. We are in a supply shortage right now.


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## jaxadam (Mar 25, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Focus on those 250k-700k homes, and the 1M+ with large property, that shit sells for greater than asking, and the listing never lasts more than 2 days. We are in a supply shortage right now.



Around here it's something like I've never seen, it doesn't make sense.


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## Crungy (Mar 25, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> It’s totally worth getting yourself a simple account, like CB Pro, and just watch shit on a Sunday night at 3AM-7AM. That’s prime time, you’ll learn lots visually


I just got into coinbase and after some reading I think I'm glad I didn't transfer anything to their wallet. If I'm understanding it correctly, it sounds like the fees are astronomical to get anything out of their wallet. Now I'm unsure what to do other than try to learn lol


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

Definitely don’t use their wallet. CB Pro is a good learning tool because it’s simple, but once you get your feet under you, you’ll want something more pro. You’ll also want something for pure L2, all the future Web3 shit that’s coming


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> Around here it's something like I've never seen, it doesn't make sense.


It’s crazy. I mapped the rate of return, real estate in coastal states vs literally anything else, and it’s not even close the comparison


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## jaxadam (Mar 25, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> It’s crazy. I mapped the rate of return, real estate in coastal states vs literally anything else, and it’s not even close the comparison



BUT BUT BUT the only thing is there is a major catching up/correction going on, and some real estate is just returning back to pre-2008 pricing.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

Also Coinbase (white icon) and CB Pro (black icon), are different. Skip CB, it sux hard, go straight to Pro, but DONT use the wallet still


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> BUT BUT BUT the only thing is there is a major catching up/correction going on, and some real estate is just returning back to pre-2008 pricing.


Flip my good man. Get the FUK out as quick as possible lol


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

Flipped 9 in 2021, I was out in less than 6 months in all cases. In and out, nobody gets hurt.


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## jaxadam (Mar 25, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Flip my good man. Get the FUK out as quick as possible lol



No way man... I ain't getting out of here until the kids graduate high school! Then I'm going for an off the grid cabin in the woods by a lake.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

Made 4MM’s on the house flips, and all I did was show up twice on each to sign. (Plus a lot of reading and strategizing)


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## thebeesknees22 (Mar 25, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Made 4MM’s on the house flips, and all I did was show up twice on each to sign. (Plus a lot of reading and strategizing)



is that 4 million millions, or 4 M&M's?


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## Crungy (Mar 25, 2022)

I hope he made more than 4 M&M's!


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## jaxadam (Mar 25, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Made 4MM’s on the house flips, and all I did was show up twice on each to sign. (Plus a lot of reading and strategizing)



These days you don't even have to show up!


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## eelblack2 (Mar 25, 2022)

M Roman thousand 
M times M (MM) million


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

I encourage you all to seriously think about investing. It’s definitely worth your time and attention. It’s not just a wealthy pipe dream. Do the research. Do the due diligence. I’ve seen many friends move from a few hundred in the market, to newly coined millionaires, the market is THAT volatile right now, and you will never get a better chance to pull yourself, your family and friends up, help others, give to charity, whatever motivates you. I wish you the best. This is the internet age, every possible corporate form or filing can be read, if you take the time.


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## AMOS (Mar 26, 2022)

I lost tens of thousands during tech stock crashes under Bush and Obama, never again! I only invest in canned food and ammo.


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## AMOS (Mar 26, 2022)

Hell, I even got screwed by my Mutuals, and they're supposed to be low risk.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

If you need a mentally enticing fact, all those crazy ESP 7 strings I ordered, 70k worth, all the Ibanez 50th I purchased, 60k ish?, they were paid for, with 200k left over, with ONE solid three week investment. They cost me nothing but my time doing due diligence. Capitalism is a game that can be beaten. I don’t like it, didn’t invent it, but I’ll play the game, if that’s the only game in town.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

AMOS said:


> Hell, I even got screwed by my Mutuals, and they're supposed to be low risk.


Avoid mutuals, even in the best of times. It ties up your $ far too long, for far too little return


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## AMOS (Mar 26, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Avoid mutuals, even in the best of times. It ties up your $ far too long, for far too little return


I wanted something low risk besides my Cisco and Microsoft stocks. What killed me with Cisco was all the splits, then the crash.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

Here’s a no brainer proof of concept. SPY and SPX. (S&P500) It has generated an average of 10% per year, for decades. (I’m rounding it low, I know, folks who know) Over decades that compounds into a behemoth. If you can’t think over a better idea, start there.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

AMOS said:


> I wanted something low risk besides my Cisco and Microsoft stocks. What killed me with Cisco was all the splits, then the crash.


I feel you. That was a black swan moment. Consider ETF baskets to cover a sector, and split your risk over many equities and/or bonds


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## Alberto7 (Mar 26, 2022)

I just throw chunks of my income in one of my bank's investment funds portfolios, and it's been good so far. It doesn't make me tons of cash, but it has made my overall net worth appreciate considerably over inflation. Now with the effects of COVID and the war in Russia starting to be felt... let's see what happens.

I just don't have the bandwidth to play with stocks and crypto all day. It tires me out. But it's a game I'm gonna have to learn at some point.

My girlfriend is really good at this stuff, but she only just started making money after university. Waiting for her to start investing so she can teach me more and do it alongside her.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

This is SPX performance over last year. Look at those GAINS!!!!


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## tedtan (Mar 26, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> I encourage you all to seriously think about investing. It’s definitely worth your time and attention. It’s not just a wealthy pipe dream. Do the research. Do the due diligence. I’ve seen many friends move from a few hundred in the market, to newly coined millionaires, the market is THAT volatile right now, and you will never get a better chance to pull yourself, your family and friends up, help others, give to charity, whatever motivates you. I wish you the best. This is the internet age, every possible corporate form or filing can be read, if you take the time.


Any sectors in particlar to look into?


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

Look at 5 year. W T F


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

Month by month. Can you predict where line is going?


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

Ninja pro tip; If you are going to open a large new long position because you are absolutely bullish on it, hedge your short term bet. Buy some matching short options. If your stock goes up, the shorts will expire worthless, but who cares, you paid little for the options, and you are already $ ahead. If your bullish long dips in the short term, these shorts will put you vastly $ ahead. At that point reassess your thinking. Still bullish? Keep trucking. Not bullish?, you are $ ahead from the shorts, take paper loss on the held shares, and move on. At this point, you are either net even, or maybe even ahead from the options, don’t feel bad, you didn’t lose. Learn from it, and make the next well-informed bet. Never guess, real the reports and 13Fs.


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## StevenC (Mar 26, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> M Roman thousand
> M times M (MM) million


Wait is this the real reason? Because that's the stupidest thing. 

That's all I have to contribute.


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## jaxadam (Mar 26, 2022)

StevenC said:


> Wait is this the real reason? Because that's the stupidest thing.
> 
> That's all I have to contribute.



I see it expressed like that all the time.


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## StevenC (Mar 26, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> I see it expressed like that all the time.


I know people call a million MM, but I didn't know the reason was Roman numerals. Because they have a symbol for million and MM is different number. And everyone uses k for 1000, so it should really be kk. Or more simply just M because that already means 10^6.


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## jaxadam (Mar 26, 2022)

StevenC said:


> so it should really be kk.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

Metric abbreviations would make more sense, I completely agree. Global economy is still a mixed thing though, and MM only means one thing on a financial sheet, and it isn’t millimeters


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## jaxadam (Mar 26, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Metric abbreviations would make more sense, I completely agree. Global economy is still a mixed thing though, and MM only means one thing on a financial sheet, and it isn’t millimeters



Did you watch Super Bowl 5.6x10^1 last month?


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## eelblack2 (Mar 26, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> Did you watch Super Bowl 5.6x10^1 last month?


Lolololll gold


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## TheInvisibleHand (Mar 26, 2022)

@eelblack2 Im just going to venmo you a chunk of money. Turn it into more for me. Thanks!


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## jaxadam (Mar 26, 2022)

TheInvisibleHand said:


> @eelblack2 Im just going to venmo you a chunk of money. Turn it into more for me. Thanks!



You know, I tried this once, but all he did was send me a damn guitar!


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## TheInvisibleHand (Mar 26, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> You know, I tried this once, but all he did was send me a damn guitar!


depending on the guitar that might be ok....


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

Warren’s current portfolio. Huge Apple position and huge cash position. He’s waiting to pounce on something after a correction.


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## narad (Mar 27, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Warren’s current portfolio. Huge Apple position and huge cash position. He’s waiting to pounce on something after a correction.



Tell him to drop me a line... I'm waiting for a severance payout from my last company to land this week.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

If you own BRKA, he’ll chat with you once a year, at least.


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## narad (Mar 27, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> If you own BRKA, he’ll chat with you once a year, at least.



That's cool. Have you actually chatted with him? I can afford like... 1/20th a BRKA


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## Sebastian (Mar 27, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> I encourage you all to seriously think about investing. It’s definitely worth your time and attention. It’s not just a wealthy pipe dream. Do the research. Do the due diligence. I’ve seen many friends move from a few hundred in the market, to newly coined millionaires, the market is THAT volatile right now, and you will never get a better chance to pull yourself, your family and friends up, help others, give to charity, whatever motivates you. I wish you the best. This is the internet age, every possible corporate form or filing can be read, if you take the time.


Research/knowledge is priceless! I have a friend who invests/buys/sells used high end clothing, makes a killing and can afford nice LACS and real estate.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

narad said:


> That's cool. Have you actually chatted with him? I can afford like... 1/20th a BRKA


Yup, if you hold enough BRKA, you get invited to his yearly party


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

He’s autistic as hell, and won’t admit it to himself. I’ve weaponized my autism, and enjoy it immensely.


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## jaxadam (Mar 27, 2022)

TheInvisibleHand said:


> depending on the guitar that might be ok....



Pretty sure he forgot all about it.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> Pretty sure he forgot all about it.


I actually bought a second one from Rich, but anytime you are ready to ship south…..just say the word )))))))) I fucking love that guitar


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

BTC looking like a run soon


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

HRG4-BX Should we ask Rich for a run, with a Lopro? That would perfect it. Anyone interested?


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

Watch what happens to LRC by end of Q2(Fiscal end)


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

I can’t use names on this one, but if you know, you know. That little breakout from 85$ to crazytown paid for so much fun shit, I can’t even tell you. Look how short the time span


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## jaxadam (Mar 27, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> HRG4-BX Should we ask Rich for a run, with a Lopro? That would perfect it. Anyone interested?



Not with a Lopro! I just don't get the love for that trem...


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## jaxadam (Mar 27, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> I can’t use names on this one, but if you know, you know. That little breakout from 85$ to crazytown paid for so much fun shit, I can’t even tell you. Look how short the time span



My energy level after a Monster?


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## eelblack2 (Mar 27, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> My energy level after a Monster?


That’s exactly what my wallet said, while weeping tears of utter joy.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 28, 2022)

When your portfolio goes like this on Monday morning, you get a free green thing


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## narad (Mar 28, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> When your portfolio goes like this on Monday morning, you get a free green thing
> View attachment 105595


Think my cholesterol did that


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## jaxadam (Mar 28, 2022)

Shit that means just buy more and ride that wave!


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## eelblack2 (Mar 28, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> Shit that means just buy more and ride that wave!


Oh I’m DEEP. Those were just my funzies shares


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## eelblack2 (Mar 28, 2022)

Rest of held shares be like


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## Xaeldaren (Mar 28, 2022)

I'm living paycheque-to-paycheque right now and just watching this thread with tears in my eyes


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## eelblack2 (Mar 28, 2022)

When you start playing the game, keep multiple accounts for different reasons. I keep 5 long investment personal accounts, 2 corporate accounts, and 2 crack head Daddy needs a new Private Stock accounts. Have your cake and eat it also.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 28, 2022)

Xaeldaren said:


> I'm living paycheque-to-paycheque right now and just watching this thread with tears in my eyes


My eldest son started with 400$ and now has over a milly. I made a point of teaching him the “Self made” lesson


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## jaxadam (Mar 28, 2022)

Here's my "pay investment firm 1.5% a year managed portfolio" Come at me bro. That means no Monster for lunch.


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## jaxadam (Mar 28, 2022)

Xaeldaren said:


> I'm living paycheque-to-paycheque right now



Trust me man, those days are way better...


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## Xaeldaren (Mar 28, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> My eldest son started with 400$ and now has over a milly. I made a point of teaching him the “Self made” lesson



I belive this question was already asked, but are you looking to adopt anyone currently?


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## eelblack2 (Mar 28, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> Here's my "pay investment firm 1.5% a year managed portfolio" Come at me bro. That means no Monster for lunch.


That hot. I’ll counter with


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## eelblack2 (Mar 28, 2022)

Overall, the market is shitting. But when you play with negative beta hedge bets, you win, in a crap market


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## eelblack2 (Mar 28, 2022)

This crazy train is NOT stopping


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## Sebastian (Mar 29, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> My eldest son started with 400$ and now has over a milly. I made a point of teaching him the “Self made” lesson


Looking through this thread makes me think about what on earth I'm doing at an office everyday  It might be time for a change...


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## spudmunkey (Mar 29, 2022)

I bought a couple thousand dollars worth in Bitcoin at $57,000 last year. Basically the day it started a down-turn from which is hasn't recovered in the last full year. Still down 20%.

Also bought GameStop basically the day before it crashed. Currently still down about 50%, but it's usually down 60-70%. Debating just letting it ride for shits and giggles, or sell it when it's around $150 just to cut losses. Their expansion into NFT seems ill-fated, but seemingly the only thing keeping them interesting.

Before any of this, the only investments I've had: I won $200 of my then-employer's stock in 2002, then in 2008 there was a buy-out and I got $1.42 for it.


The only thing I've ever invested in that's not crashed: bought a couple hundred in Etherium last April, and that's up 30% in the last almost-year...so I'm up $80 on that.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 29, 2022)

Do this to bring your cost basis down on all things you mentioned. It’s ok you came in at the previous highs, but you need Aikido to turn loss into gain. Imagine if 10% of your holdings were purchased at 90, another 10% at 100, etc. Always average down during times of volatility. All the while, reassess, still bullish? Play the shorts, while holding long. Switch direction, when it’s time. 

NFT’s aren’t what the general population believes they are. The goofy cartoons aren’t what you are buying. That’s just the limited right now. Imagine a future where the NFT delivers your video game, your full record album with art, your house deed, your stock shares, your car title. That same NFT can be resold, on the secondary market, instantaneously. Point your phone at your car, and you’ve just sold it and transferred ownership. New owner waves phone at car, and a comprehensive insurance policy has been purchased, and tied to the VIN. The future is coming, and Congress doesn’t like it. Until we take away their conflicts of interest, investors will need to be extremely agile and clever.


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## Nlelith (Mar 30, 2022)

Does having a $4000 worth of CS:GO items (that I bought for ~$600) count?

As for real stocks, it's rather hard for me to get my hands on any US company stocks as a foreign person. Same for crypto, most markets either don't accept exchanging FIAT money from local banks, or are shady af, with mixed reviews. I wanted to get some XTZ/Tezos when it was down this year, just a small amount for gas fees, but even that turned out to be such an impossible feat thanks to my location & not having any other coins.



eelblack2 said:


> Imagine a future where the NFT delivers your video game, your full record album with art, your house deed, your stock shares, your car title. That same NFT can be resold, on the secondary market, instantaneously.


Thank you, somebody gets it. NFT as a technology has a lot of potential, but most companies that implement them right now are just chasing quick profit. People will change their minds the second someone will offer NFTs as something useful to the end customer. Having an option to resell your digital games/movies seems like such an obvious choice to start with simple, but very convenient utility.


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## Sebastian (Mar 30, 2022)

Nlelith said:


> Does having a $4000 worth of CS:GO items (that I bought for ~$600) count?
> 
> As for real stocks, it's rather hard for me to get my hands on any US company stocks as a foreign person. Same for crypto, most markets either don't accept exchanging FIAT money from local banks, or are shady af, with mixed reviews. I wanted to get some XTZ/Tezos when it was down this year, just a small amount for gas fees, but even that turned out to be such an impossible feat thanks to my location & not having any other coins.
> 
> ...


What about binance? Isn't it available in Kazakhstan?


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## Nlelith (Mar 30, 2022)

Sebastian said:


> What about binance? Isn't it available in Kazakhstan?


It *should* work, yeah. But it requires a lot of personal data (scans of ID, face telemetry), and I'm not comfortable with that. And even after that, I still can't be sure that it will not reject my card with no apparent reason like other big exchanges.


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## Decapitated (Mar 30, 2022)

I wish I was better at this. I want 4MMs.


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## Xaios (Mar 30, 2022)

My one "investment" went so well that I'm almost put off trying to do any other investing, because I know it would realistically never pay off to the same degree. I made 600% gains in Dogecoin over a 3 month period, went in with $150 and came out with $1050. Fully took advantage of a meme, which I expect to be next to impossible now.


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## spudmunkey (Mar 30, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> NFT’s aren’t what the general population believes they are. The goofy cartoons aren’t what you are buying. That’s just the limited right now. Imagine a future where the NFT delivers your video game, your full record album with art, your house deed, your stock shares, your car title. That same NFT can be resold, on the secondary market, instantaneously. Point your phone at your car, and you’ve just sold it and transferred ownership. New owner waves phone at car, and a comprehensive insurance policy has been purchased, and tied to the VIN. The future is coming, and Congress doesn’t like it. Until we take away their conflicts of interest, investors will need to be extremely agile and clever.



Oh for sure, and I honestly do think that most relatively-normal people could, I think, wrap their brain around how the technology behind NFTs has utility if it were explained clearly because there's intuitiveness to the security behind it. But right now, the only public-facing uses have been cash-grabs involving generating false scarcity and "collectibility" through speculation. Like...being able to sell your camo skin in a video game to another player when you no longer use it? I get that. And that seems like a great idea that benefits pretty much everyone involved (although I do suspect that the ability to sell a skin will mean that the skin will cost the first player more money because it's going to limit sales of "new" if people can buy used)... But the bullshit alarms start to ring when it's being used to sell the specific copy of the camo skin that one player used in an event...because that entire concept is invented scarcity. Melania Trump selling an NFT of a painting of her eyes...when there's zero *actual* utility to owning the NFT other than saying you own it, and tricking people into thinking there's value. Although, granted, that's the basis of the entire global economy...but...yeah... I understand how NFTs can be a net benefit...but the "art collector" and speculation world that's co-oped it just causes a shiver down my spine knowing just how many people will be losing out as the demand for this sort of thing crashes, and I do believe it'll crash hard as the space gets even more saturated with garbage "collectible" NFTs.


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## Bodes (Mar 30, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Flipped 9 in 2021, I was out in less than 6 months in all cases. In and out, nobody gets hurt.



Oh wow! We have insane capital gains tax in Australia. Especially if you own a place for less than 12 months. Even then our Govt is trying no ease the housing pressure to stop investors flipping houses.

I wish I had the energy to be bothered to invest. Our laws are certainly a lot more strict than in the US.

All I can say is some of you guys are crazy good (in my eyes, that is) at this investment thing.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 31, 2022)

Bodes said:


> Oh wow! We have insane capital gains tax in Australia. Especially if you own a place for less than 12 months. Even then our Govt is trying no ease the housing pressure to stop investors flipping houses.
> 
> I wish I had the energy to be bothered to invest. Our laws are certainly a lot more strict than in the US.
> 
> All I can say is some of you guys are crazy good (in my eyes, that is) at this investment thing.


CG is pretty robust here, also. It’s lessened when we hold equities for greater than 1 year, but that only happens in my long long accounts. I own a few companies as well, so I’m already in the highest tax bracket possible. I maintain many tax savings accounts, have a skilled accounting team, and any high frequency gains I get, I always withhold 50% of my gains, off the top. Never deviate from that, you’ll never get behind. After the accountants do their thing, whatever is left in the tax account, just rolls forward to the next monthly, quarterly, or yearly tax event, as a buffer. I do that same strategy for corporate me, as well as personal me. My corporate accounts invest also.


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## eelblack2 (Mar 31, 2022)

I don’t do that wealthy person weaseling of my taxes, down to an absurd low rate. I find that behavior repugnant. IRS can audit me any time, if they go down that rabbit hole, they probably owe me, not the other way around. I don’t need to cut corners on taxes, I’ll just work harder to make more fresh currency.


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## SpaceDock (Mar 31, 2022)

I have been real lucky the past few years, making more money on my investments than from my job. The last 6 months or so haven’t had much growth at all and from where I sit, the last few years seem like it would be hard to not make money.


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## eelblack2 (Apr 1, 2022)

Get ready for Valhalla tomorrow. That Chairman is a genius.

On Fools day, no less. Very funny mother Fer.


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## eelblack2 (Apr 1, 2022)

Wait 1-1.5 hours after open, to increase your positions. FOMO will spike, then settle to still crazy levels. This is what that cash position is for.


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## narad (Apr 1, 2022)

Kinda cryptic


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## eelblack2 (Apr 1, 2022)

I can’t name names. SEC would nail me. I will say the market is scared as hell!


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## eelblack2 (Apr 1, 2022)

Follow breadcrumbs of my previous chart posts. The two tickers to watch, one is a stock, the other is a crypto. They are directly related, and I’d be surprised if one didn’t buy the other, before end of next quarter.


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## TedEH (Apr 1, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> NFT’s aren’t what the general population believes they are. The goofy cartoons aren’t what you are buying. That’s just the limited right now. Imagine a future where the NFT delivers your video game, your full record album with art, your house deed, your stock shares, your car title.


This sounds like a terrible future. When you strip out the memes and speculative investing nonsense, what_ exactly_ do NFTs offer that doesn't exist already in a form that doesn't require a computer science degree to understand, a shit-ton of energy to implement, and/or a huge risk of some tech bro stealing everything you own or whatever other sketchy nonsense seems to surround this stuff? It's too complicated to ever catch on as mainstream everyday currency, and so far the only people that care are the investors trying to ride the wave.

But but but-
They're unique! ....sure, but NFTs didn't invent the concept of non-fungible. Unique collectibles already existed. Like a one-off guitar. Already non-fungible. Slapping some tech jargon onto it doesn't make it more unique.
You can sell your digital goods! .....that already existed, and already came with a lot of problems. All-digital marketplaces, video game economies etc., tend to be very predatory/problematic.
It's decentralized! ....I've yet to see any demonstration of how anyone benefits from this. Every argument I've seen for it has been all speculative, just like the value. But I _do_ see a significant lack of clarity and oversight that leads to confusion and scams.

The only reason people are talking about this is that it's making a handful of people rich, and it's become a status symbol. It's just an overly-complicated digital receipt that burns electricity and arouses tech bros and rich people. We have receipts already.


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## eelblack2 (Apr 1, 2022)

I’m framing that to hang in the office. I’ll repost that back here, in a few years.


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## narad (Apr 1, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Follow breadcrumbs of my previous chart posts. The two tickers to watch, one is a stock, the other is a crypto. They are directly related, and I’d be surprised if one didn’t buy the other, before end of next quarter.


Gamestop buying DogeCoin, got it


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## TedEH (Apr 1, 2022)

I guess I should have known better than to expect an actual answer.


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## SpaceDock (Apr 1, 2022)

I view NFTs as the next step of crypto. These things have no true value, kinda like paper money, but without any institutions behind them or in the matter of Bitcoin purposely obscuring the origins. What the real story here is that NFTs or crypto just gets some investors, then some hype men to pump it up. Those lucky to have been in early win and those who leave early win even more. This is why the apes build this diamond hands culture to fool others to hold longer than those who cash out before the crash. Might as well be tech stocks from the 2000s, if you picked google you are rich and if you picked ask Jeeves you lost, but the vast majority of investors don’t understand the difference between them.


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## SpaceDock (Apr 1, 2022)

eelblack2 said:


> Get ready for Valhalla tomorrow. That Chairman is a genius.
> 
> On Fools day, no less. Very funny mother Fer.


Did this really happen for buddy? Can you talk about it now that it’s past?


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## Crungy (Apr 11, 2022)

Anyone see reports of Btc possibly dropping to 30k by June?


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## wheresthefbomb (Apr 11, 2022)

I pay rent.


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## Crungy (Apr 11, 2022)

I'm not _too_ deep into it yet so seeing that got my attention. Like midrange Ibanez money, not @eelblack Ibanez money


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## maliciousteve (Apr 23, 2022)

I've just opened an account with eToro and started some low level investing to learn how to get started. Having seen how much my brother makes using the Trading 212 app I thought I might as well give it a try. Seeing this thread was quite helpful


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## thebeesknees22 (May 10, 2022)

welp.....ha....

stuff's down so much now all I can do is laugh about it. 

How are ya'll doin' out there? haha


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## Crungy (May 10, 2022)

I don't a have ton into it, so it sucks that I'm at like half what I put in but I'm not hurting either. 

Still tempted to buy while it's low!


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## penguin_316 (May 18, 2022)

I just found this thread, bit I'm already laughing my ass off because I knew exactly where this eel dude was headed when I started reading it. 

Lol Bitcoin og here, you guys keep trading your stock and crappy altcoins. I just stacking sats and laughing.


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## Drew (May 18, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> I just found this thread, bit I'm already laughing my ass off because I knew exactly where this eel dude was headed when I started reading it.
> 
> Lol Bitcoin og here, you guys keep trading your stock and crappy altcoins. I just stacking sats and laughing.



bitcoin is a pure momentum bet, and right now momentum is keeping it highly correlated - like 0.80 - to the Nasdaq. It's literally just sentiment devoid of anything approaching fundamental value. Which is fine, but you need to know what you're getting yourself into.



eelblack2 said:


> I encourage you all to seriously think about investing. It’s definitely worth your time and attention. It’s not just a wealthy pipe dream. Do the research. Do the due diligence. I’ve seen many friends move from a few hundred in the market, to newly coined millionaires, the market is THAT volatile right now, and you will never get a better chance to pull yourself, your family and friends up, help others, give to charity, whatever motivates you. I wish you the best. This is the internet age, every possible corporate form or filing can be read, if you take the time.


Everyone should be investing if at ALL possible. If your employer offers a 401k, fund it as far as you can - it's deducted pre-tax so $1 into your 401k is only like $0.7-80 out of your paycheck because it lowers your taxable income - but at least up to your employer match. 

Don't worry about individual stocks, just dump as much as you can into a low cost stock market index fund. You CAN outperform the market carefully buying individual stocks, but doing so requires you to both have a reasonable basis to believe you have an informational edge over the paid research desks of Wall street investment firms being paid millions to be right, and then the luck for the maket to become aware of that mispricing and fix it within your investment horixon. It's hard to do right, and very easy to do wrong. 

Grabbing something like SPY (or the Vanguard alternative, VV - they generally do good work on the equity side fund, and no worse than anyone else on the fixed) and just letting it compound over time will be very likely to appreciate a LOT over a 20-30 year horizon. The markets may be blowing the fuck up now, but that just means you're buying at a discount, and the point of investing for retirement is you're looking to grow assets you won't _need_ for the next 20-30 years. 

For the older members here the traditional rule of thumb is you want to hold your age in bond funds, and 100 minus your age in stocks - I'm personally of the mindset that this is too conservative, but that's the traditional starting point. Main argument for not being 100% equity is that it's nice to have some dry powder on the sidelines to buy dips if the bottom DOES fall out of the market (like it's doing now). 

But, even if you can't spare more than like $10-20 a month, set up an IRA account and start putting SOMETHING into it. In 20 years, you'll thank yourself.


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## Strobe (May 18, 2022)

Drew said:


> bitcoin is a pure momentum bet, and right now momentum is keeping it highly correlated - like 0.80 - to the Nasdaq. It's literally just sentiment devoid of anything approaching fundamental value. Which is fine, but you need to know what you're getting yourself into.
> 
> 
> Everyone should be investing if at ALL possible. If your employer offers a 401k, fund it as far as you can - it's deducted pre-tax so $1 into your 401k is only like $0.7-80 out of your paycheck because it lowers your taxable income - but at least up to your employer match.
> ...



Came here to post something like this. Index funds invested for a long time is the way to go for retirement. Investing in individual stocks and buying an selling frequently is definitely riskier, and fees will eat up your earnings. An individual retail investor can spend a lot of time and effort into this for the privilege of making less than they would have with a more passive investment strategy like an index fund.

Another thing I will add - and this becomes more true the more money you have. Get a financial advisor. My spouse and I make a fair amount of money (well into 6 figures) from our jobs. Anyone can figure out how much they can afford to put into a 401k index fund. The things that are more complicated are questions like:

1) How much should I put into 401k (pre-tax) vs. a Roth IRA (post tax) - this comes down to minimizing your overall tax burden and it is a math intensive exercise that not everyone can or should do without an expert to help.

2) Is the amount I am saving enough to generate the income I need in retirement? A financial planner is going to be well equipped to model this and help make projections

3) Are there additional tax avoidance strategies such as a whole life insurance policy that you can or should be using?

A financial advisor can help with these more advanced topics if you really want to optimize how you save.


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## penguin_316 (May 18, 2022)

The thing that I find the funniest, is anyone can spout off some random details from a cherry picked data set. Bitcoins' correlation to tech stocks is a relatively newer issue(last few years) but has spent most of its life uncorrelated to it.

Don't confuse liquidating a highly liquid asset in a market crash to a failing momentum play. It will "die" and be right back up in price over and over. I'm not sure how you could possibly think you could outperform the asset class.

PS: stocks will keep pumping because the US bond market is imploding. In addition, the federal reserve will turn the money printer back on in due time. Stocks rise forever=Bitcoin rises forever. Only one is a bearer asset and another is someone's liability.


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## penguin_316 (May 18, 2022)

Most 401k are heavily weighted in bonds, that's a big yikes. When you go to retire and your nominal value is high, but your purchasing power is destroyed. Don't believe me? Check for yourself, the bond market is breaking a 40 year trend as we speak.

The fundamental value of Bitcoin is that it is a asset with no liabilities, able to travel the globe and is liquid 24-7. A fixed supply and a know issuance schedule. It requires physical work to verify the scarcity/difficulty to attain the asset. Is bitcoin going up in value exponentially through the years or is your US dollar losing purchasing power exponentially? Plan accordingly.

And yes, I expect it to continue "crashing" until it isnt....same cycles.


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## Drew (May 19, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Most 401k are heavily weighted in bonds, that's a big yikes. When you go to retire and your nominal value is high, but your purchasing power is destroyed. Don't believe me? Check for yourself, the bond market is breaking a 40 year trend as we speak.
> 
> The fundamental value of Bitcoin is that it is a asset with no liabilities, able to travel the globe and is liquid 24-7. A fixed supply and a know issuance schedule. It requires physical work to verify the scarcity/difficulty to attain the asset. Is bitcoin going up in value exponentially through the years or is your US dollar losing purchasing power exponentially? Plan accordingly.
> 
> And yes, I expect it to continue "crashing" until it isnt....same cycles.


I don't think you and I are using "fundamental value" in the same manner. How do you value one bitcoin, what _should_ it be worth? What are the future cashflows it generates? Can you price it with a dividend discount model? An internal rate of return and an appropriate market discount rate? 

And, you can talk about the short term correlation to tech being awfully high... but remember, one of the most popular bull cases for bitcoin was that it was supposed to be a better inflation hedge than gold because of its finite supply, and THAT argument went up in flames in a hurry.  

I'm with you on bonds, and ironically enough I'm saying that as a fixed income professional - most traditional portfolio models probably overweight fixed income fairly materially, though the traditional inverse correlation of bonds to stocks is starting to re-establish itself, and there's certainly a fuck of a lot more relative value in fixed income than there was at the start of the year. There's certainly a place for fixed income in an investment portfolio, even in today's market (I'm holding a small-ish position for a future buy-the-dip trade, and am banking excess relative performance while bonds trade off a little but stocks trade off a LOT), but the "hold your age as a percent allocation to fixed income" is IMO too conservative.



Strobe said:


> Came here to post something like this. Index funds invested for a long time is the way to go for retirement. Investing in individual stocks and buying an selling frequently is definitely riskier, and fees will eat up your earnings. An individual retail investor can spend a lot of time and effort into this for the privilege of making less than they would have with a more passive investment strategy like an index fund.


I think index funds make a LOT of sense for equities - most are market capitalization weighted, and since stock price is primarily a reflection on future earnings potential, so you weight most heavily the companies that are expected to earn the most by the market. That's a pretty decent "neutral" exposure. Fixed income, though, capitalization backfires - bonds are, in the investment grade space, anyway - fairly insensitive to the expected earnings of their issuers, so cap weighting means you're holding the highest exposure to the entities that borrow the most... which means you're overweight risk in the corporate space, but at the same time overweight risk-free in the government space since no one issues as much debt as the US Treasury. And that's before you get into the large number of market particiants motivated by factors other than total return - the Federal Reserve's QE bond buying, pensions buying large portfolios not because they think these particular bonds will do the best, but as liability immunization portfolios to hedge future cashflows... Active management for fixed income DOES make sense, though buying your own bonds requires, well... you need a couple million before you can really produce an appropriately diversified portfolio. I think active ETFs make a lot of sense here, though manager selection becomes a lot harder. At the moment I don't have much fixed income exposure and it's mostly there as a "dry powder" position that when I think we're coming up on a bottom I can sell it and move back into equities, where I expect it will have outperformed the stock market on a relative basis... but once we get into a more normal market environment and I put some long term exposure back on, it'll definitely be active. With that many non-economic participants in the market, there ARE opportunities to profit of the distortions they create.


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## penguin_316 (May 19, 2022)

Well the TAM of bitcoin is the entire population of Earth that needs a money that cannot be debased. It's an entirely different world from traditional assets and breaks all of your molds of fundamental/intrinsic value. Those values are determined by the user and how they use the asset.

I'm sorry it's a sore spot that you entire job is negated by a new innovation. What is the future cash flow of the internet? What is the intrinsic value of the network of cell phones used across the world? Etc. Trying to pigeon hole definable value with an intangable asset is a fools errand.

What is entirely clear though, despite your skepticism is the network continues to grow. That pesky Lindy effect, it's probably a big nothingburger though. It is a hedge against inflation in the long run, I'm not sure how anyone could deny that with an average running 10 YOY return of 170% or so...

Surely, you aren't planning for people's futures using short term movements in the market?

Not being a dick but really, what is your average YOY return for clients? Come on man, have some common sense. The cognitive dissonance your experiencing is normal but only you suffer by dismissing it.


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## JoshuaCamerondLB (May 20, 2022)

Personally, I am engaged in cryptocurrency.


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## BornToLooze (May 20, 2022)

I had to get cashapp because I sold a book at school, so I've been trying stocks on there...so far I'm down a dollar.


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## Drew (May 23, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Well the TAM of bitcoin is the entire population of Earth that needs a money that cannot be debased. It's an entirely different world from traditional assets and breaks all of your molds of fundamental/intrinsic value. Those values are determined by the user and how they use the asset.
> 
> I'm sorry it's a sore spot that you entire job is negated by a new innovation. What is the future cash flow of the internet? What is the intrinsic value of the network of cell phones used across the world? Etc. Trying to pigeon hole definable value with an intangable asset is a fools errand.


Ok, devil's advocate, why is a currency that can't be debased desirable? Seems like that's a good jumping off point here, before we start talking about transactional frictional costs which are, what, somewhere north of $120 in energy usage to prove out the math supporting individual transactions at the moment? 

No one invests in "the internet." Lots of people invest in Facebook, however, which they value based on projections in advertising revenue. Or in Amazon, based on both e-commerce and, quietly the real profit center of the company, AWS and cloud computing revenue. Its's pretty straightforward to, mechanically speaking, do - the tricky part is making more accurate projections about what future earnings will look like than the next guy, and of course then having the market come around and realizer you were right in your investment horizon. 

As for my end, we manage fixed income - we're the low risk component of an invesment portfolio and a diversifier. We add value by outperforming our indices over and above the market rate of return, while pulling down overall portfolio risk, which in general is what we've done.


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## JoshuaCamerondLB (May 23, 2022)

Personally, I am engaged in cryptocurrency. Most of the traders, not necessarily beginners, dream of profitability in the millions of dollars. But in the stock markets, such returns are more of a dream than a reality. At least not in the first years of work. What cannot be said about crypto trading, where such a profit is quite real. Despite the fact that everyone can work in this direction, only a few achieve success. First you need to decide what you will do. If you are going to invest free funds, then you need to have a certain knowledge base and start-up capital. Try to do this with mt trader 5.


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## penguin_316 (May 24, 2022)

Drew said:


> Ok, devil's advocate, why is a currency that can't be debased desirable? Seems like that's a good jumping off point here, before we start talking about transactional frictional costs which are, what, somewhere north of $120 in energy usage to prove out the math supporting individual transactions at the moment?
> 
> No one invests in "the internet." Lots of people invest in Facebook, however, which they value based on projections in advertising revenue. Or in Amazon, based on both e-commerce and, quietly the real profit center of the company, AWS and cloud computing revenue. Its's pretty straightforward to, mechanically speaking, do - the tricky part is making more accurate projections about what future earnings will look like than the next guy, and of course then having the market come around and realizer you were right in your investment horizon.
> 
> As for my end, we manage fixed income - we're the low risk component of an invesment portfolio and a diversifier. We add value by outperforming our indices over and above the market rate of return, while pulling down overall portfolio risk, which in general is what we've done.


First of all, you didn't answer my question. What is the average YOY returns for your clients? I'm sure you didn't post the answer because it's probably less than CPI inflation numbers, and we all know those are comically understated.

Right, you can't invest in the internet, but Bitcoin is like the TCP/IP of the internet and you can "invest" in it. It's not investing through, its just a new form of money monetizing in real time. In other words it's the base layer all other structures will be built upon. Giving birth to the next Google, Facebook, or Amazon. I'm not so sure why it's so difficult to understand. 

I get it though, hard to go to work every day knowing that a 99% position in cash and a 1% position in Bitcoin is better returns than you could ever touch.

Fixed income used to be the risk free return, it is now the return free risk. A contract that you are guaranteed to lose purchasing power entering until completion. Anyway, I'm not trying to argue over the internet. If you don't see what's happening, the signal will get so loud in the future you won't be able to ignore it.

Then again, it will be too late then to really catch the wave. Is today the day to invest in Amazon or after the dot com bubble?


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## penguin_316 (May 24, 2022)

Frictional costs? Bitcoin transactions on the second layer cost fractions of a penny and settle instantly. Base layer transactions at absolute peaks ate like $50 a transaction if you want it to clear as fast as possible. Then again you can also send a few billion for maybe a $2 with a lower time priority. Maybe you need to actually look into what Bitcoin entails. You might need different sources than msnbc and fox news.


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## Drew (May 24, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> First of all, you didn't answer my question. What is the average YOY returns for your clients? I'm sure you didn't post the answer because it's probably less than CPI inflation numbers, and we all know those are comically understated.


I didn't because I'm not going to start spouting off confidential client information on the internet.  But, yes, while we're lagging inflation this year, we've generally both outperformed our strategy indices and the inflation rate, though the latter is complicated of course because investing incurs risk, risk occurs the possibility of losses, and while an appropriately chosen index should respond to the same risk factors in systematically-consistent ways as an investment strategy, the rate of inflation does not.

For example, bitcoin is down 36.8% year to date, and stringing together the monthly CPI headline series then inflation has eroded purchasing power by about 2.3% through 4/30. This means bitcoin has underperformed the inflation rate YTD by 39.1%. Do you consider that an indictment of bitcoin as an investment, as well?

Figures are per Bloomberg, by the way. I don't take Fox or MSNBC seriously either.

Now, while we're at it, you glossed over my question too. So, I'll give you a second.

1) Why is a fixed monetary supply desirable?
2) is bitcoin a currency or an investment?

I'm not even saying don't buy bitcoin, is the funny thing.  I don't think we've hit bottom yet, but when I think we're closer, I wouldn't rule out throwing a grand or two at it too to try to catch a dip. But, absent any sort of valuation framework and attempt to understand what it _should_ be worth, that's not investing, that's speculating. Which is fine and all, but I wouldn't advocate anyone putting a significant allocation of their total wealth into bitcoin. "To the moon!" isn't an investment strategy. It's what you yell when you put it all on black. 

I'm also happy to actually discuss the pros and cons of bitcoin with you, but you gotta lay off the constant attempts at personal attacks here if you want me to take anything you have to say seriously.


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## penguin_316 (May 24, 2022)

It wasn't a personal attack, or a request to disclose confidential info. A simple 6% last year or 8% for the past decade would suffice. It's not a personal attack that financial planners cannot ever come close to the returns of Bitcoin. It's not a personal attack, it's however an eye opening fact.

1. A fixed monetary base is desirable because it cannot be inflated into nothing by a government. When money supply is inflated from thin air, aka minting treasuries by the billions, it degrades your purchasing power over time.

Bitcoin has a max supply of close to 21 million, issued on a fixed schedule. The supply produced in a 2 week period is regulated by a difficulty adjustment, consistently regulating the supply issuance over time. It is infinitely divisible, but the protocol run by the people determines the ruleset. I don't imagine it changing too much over the next several years, anything that would be a negative for the general user will not be adopted. Therefore will remain the same...

Meanwhile, when your grandfather was a kid a Coke (in a glass bottle)was a nickel. That same Coke is now $3.99(in a cheap plastic bottle). Now ask yourself, did the price of the soda go up over time or did the value of the dollar go down significantly over that time period. Just a hint, the dollar continues to devalue over time and will continue to do so.

We have a debt issue in this country, our GDP massively exceeds our debts. We cannot afford for interest rates on treasuries to go up, they must be pushed down to be able to service our debts. In order to create yield curve control, the fed must "print" new treasuries and become the buyer of last resort of their own debt.

The smoke and mirrors game can only go on so long before things start to break. I can go on but you probably didn't read all of this.

TLDR:money printing erodes your purchasing power, enslaving you to a rat race you will never win. As a thought experiment, lets say it takes 10 million to retire comfortably at present day. Imagine saving over the years and at retirement you have the 10 million saved. Meanwhile, purchasing power has eroded to make a comfortable retirement require 50 million.


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## penguin_316 (May 24, 2022)

2. Bitcoin is an emergent monetary system with both a money component and a network component. Both have extreme value in their own right, it solves the Byzantine Generals problem of establishing trust over the internet. You can think of it as an investment, or you can think of it a a new form of money. Either way, as the network expands and the user base continues to grow the value of the network will be determined by its fundamentals.

The max supply is fixed.
The supply schedule is fixed and known.
The demand continues to expand over time.
The only other variable that can respond to this mechanism is the price. AKA Number go up technology.

I think of it as a savings technology, and it's absolutely unmatched over long periods of time(I'm not trying to get rich over night). I am protecting my purchasing power and labor over the long term. If I stay in dollars, stocks, or even worse treasuries, it will be highly unlikely they allow me to keep my purchasing power, let alone exceed it. Please stop giving examples with short term data as it's irrelevant to the discussion.

I sent myself $xx,xxx last month for $1 and change. No one to stop me, and I could have sent it anywhere in the world. Once you experience the stark difference of that, compared to begging your bank to release your own money to you. Filling out forms, and your use of funds explaination...something just clicks.

It's all going to sound like a scam and a bunch of nonsense until you spend the time to learn about it. Throwing a couple grand at it when you think it's a low price won't do much. Changing your entire framework of what money is, will have a profound effect and is a good starting point. 

You have to leave your ego behind though, it held me back from diving into it for years as well. Having been in a masters program several years ago, I understand the intense brainwashing of academia. Just follow the numbers.


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## jaxadam (May 24, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> 2. Bitcoin is an emergent monetary system with both a money component and a network component. Both have extreme value in their own right, it solves the Byzantine Generals problem of establishing trust over the internet. You can think of it as an investment, or you can think of it a a new form of money. Either way, as the network expands and the user base continues to grow the value of the network will be determined by its fundamentals.
> 
> The max supply is fixed.
> The supply schedule is fixed and known.
> ...



Our financial advisors are absolutely putting crypto in our portfolios right now, which I have no problem with.


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## tedtan (May 24, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> Our financial advisors are absolutely putting crypto in our portfolios right now, which I have no problem with.


Yeah, there is no issue investing in crypto, but it shouldn’t be a singular focus; it should be part of a balanced portfolio.


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## jaxadam (May 24, 2022)

tedtan said:


> Yeah, there is no issue investing in crypto, but it shouldn’t be a singular focus; it should be part of a balanced portfolio.



One of my buddies who is a financial advisor put it like this: over the past decade, small cap returns were around 10-12%, large cap returns were roughly 12-15%. They are estimating this will drop to below 10% over the next decade. Bitcoin is 200%, so it is something they can’t ignore any longer.

I have some buddies who are heavy into it, and I’ve listened to a few podcasts, and even some of the best speculators out there have teams doing this full time, so it has led me to this conclusion: nothing will beat a lifetime of hard work and saving!


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## Drew (May 24, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> It wasn't a personal attack, or a request to disclose confidential info. A simple 6% last year or 8% for the past decade would suffice. It's not a personal attack that financial planners cannot ever come close to the returns of Bitcoin. It's not a personal attack, it's however an eye opening fact.


More stuff like "hard to work every day knowing a 99% position in cash and 1% BTC is more returns than you could ever touch" or implying the issue here is maybe I just don't "understand" bitcoin, or that my only issue is that it's a "sore spot that my job has been made irrelevant" like that's the only reason I might not also be all in on bitcoin. Stuff like that makes it really hard to take someone seriously, for one, and from a purely practical point of view, well, if you're trying to convince me to agree with you, it's probably going to have the opposite effect, no?



penguin_316 said:


> 1. A fixed monetary base is desirable because it cannot be inflated into nothing by a government. When money supply is inflated from thin air, aka minting treasuries by the billions, it degrades your purchasing power over time.





penguin_316 said:


> We have a debt issue in this country, our GDP massively exceeds our debts. We cannot afford for interest rates on treasuries to go up, they must be pushed down to be able to service our debts. In order to create yield curve control, the fed must "print" new treasuries and become the buyer of last resort of their own debt.
> 
> The smoke and mirrors game can only go on so long before things start to break. I can go on but you probably didn't read all of this.


So, that's a game we've seen play out elsewhere, and often enough to know it doesn't end well. The complicating piece is that the USD is just _one_ currency in the global economy, albeit the one viewed as a global safehaven. That means we have a pretty strong incentive for two closely related reasons not to recklessly do just that - if our central bank indicates that it's willing to debase the currency to pay off however much debt the government wants to issue (and the issue here is debt, not currency - currency devaluation is a byproduct, keep that in mind here) then suddenly global interest in holding dollars, or debt obligations to pay a future stream of dollars, will dry up in a hurry, and investors will start buying debt from other nations in other currencies in a hurry. That will cause the dollar to _really_ tank, which means it'll cost a fuckload more dollars to buy anything imported from overseas, which given current US consumption is quite a lot. This means the Federal Reserve actually has a pretty strong motivation to keep the value of the dollar reasonably stable - a slow, predictable decline over time due to inflation is one thing (and is consistent with every _other_ first world currency in the world, which makes it pretty irrelevant on a relative basis), but a sudden sharp decline would cause a huge increase in prices domestically. And no, that's not what we're experiencing now - the initial wave of inflation may have been stimulus-driven demand shock, but we're coping with two significant supply shocks, in the form of the war in Ukraine significantly curtailing global supply of a number of commodities (oil most prominently), and then rolling Covid shutdowns in China. The dollar as actually been strengthening on a relative basis (as in relative to other world currencies) as the Federal Reserve has begun hiking interest rates while most of the rest of the world has not, increasing the carry on a relative basis. 

But, either way, what you're describing, devaluing the currency to artificially shrink the debt burden, is really a risk of running a too-large deficit, more than a currency risk itself. The byproducts of doing that are severe enough for a country running a current account deficit that you don't necessarily need to take the option off the table, to otherwise have great reasons why it would be insane to do. 

Incidentally, you got it backwards - out debt just breached 100% of GDP, and while I wouldn't say it "massively" exceeds it, debt is currently larger than GDP. That doesn't mean the interest burden is currently unsustainable - it's not, and we did extend the overall duration of our national debt over the last decade so it'll only rise slowly as shorter bonds run off and we issue longer ones. Even still, with the 10yr at around 2.76% at the moment, we're still well below were it's been for most of the last 60 years. 

And yes, I did read all of this.  

But, two comments. 

1) I think it's worth thinking about how a finite supply of money behaves in an economy that's constantly growing in real terms. Simplify this radically; if you have an economy with a monetary supply of 100 bitcoin, that produces a single resource and can produce 100 units this year, but through productivity gains can produce 110 units next year, then what you're talking about isn't a stable monetary environment, it's a deflationary one, as prices fall with time. That sounds like a good one, but in a consumption-based economy, this creates incentives to defer consumption, which causes growth to fall. Right now it's easy to forget about this with inflation running hot, but deflation is by far a bigger risk to a consumption based economy (look at Japan) and we spent much of the last ten years worrying about that. Part of the reason the Fed has historically targeted a low but positive inflation rate is slight undershoots are a lot less damaging to an economy when your target is 2% than when it's 0%. 



penguin_316 said:


> You can think of it as an investment, or you can think of it a a new form of money. Either way, as the network expands and the user base continues to grow the value of the network will be determined by its fundamentals.
> 
> The max supply is fixed.
> The supply schedule is fixed and known.
> ...


It can't be both, though. 

If it's a currency, then it needs to be a stable store of value and a easy, liquid, and predictable means of exchange. Money is an intermediary, it's a means of exchange allowing one good to be equated with another, allowing trade to function beyond simple barter of one good for another. 

If it's an investment, even if you think I'm being too old school by suggesting to be an investment and not a speculation, then you have to have some expectation of it being worth more, hopefully significantly more, at some point in the future when you want to sell and convert your long-term investment into a short term means of exchange. 

Arguing it's both makes no sense - if Bitcoin really were to supplant the dollar, then your return on holding bitcoin, measured in bitcoin, would be zero. It would succeed as a currency, but fail as an investment. If instead Bitcoin would succeed as an investment, then its future value would be unknowable, making it too risky to use for long term transactions. It can't simultaneously be the future default means of exchange _and_ a good investment; that's akin to suggesting people who transact in dollars should_ invest_ in dollars. 

But, setting all of that aside, why should demand continue to go up over time? Pretty clearly, demand has fallen significantly this year, which means it's at least possible for demand to occasionally fall. If bitcoin was an asset that had a fixed quantity and it was _assured_ demand would increase over time, that could be interesting, but the argument that it does is pretty circular - bitcoin is the currency of the future, so demand will grow because its user base will grow, and its user base will grow because it's the currency of the future? It's success is predicated on its success. 

Again, I'm not even saying it's a bad idea to buy bitcoin. I think you just need to be clear about your expectations when you do - it's an _extremely_ volatile asset that's highly sensitive to user confidence because there are no underlying assets supporting it. Look at Terra/Luna - a confidence failure in crypto will absolutely decimate value. If you have a high risk tolerance and believe user confidence will strengthen, it might make sense... but in its current form its too unpredictable to use as a currency, and if it ever were to become stable enough to use as currency, then it wouldn't make much sense to use as an investment.


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## penguin_316 (May 25, 2022)

Our debt to gdp is over 130% currently, I didn't get anything backwards. I'm not trying to argue with someone that brings up events over and over that are within that past year. This is a long term endeavor and the numbers don't lie.

I didn't say you couldn't grasp certain aspects of Bitcoin. It is obvious though that you have alot more to study to understand the expanse/gravity of the situation.

This video has nothing to do with Bitcoin per se, but it is an interesting look into our current monetary problem. It's 15 mins, the audio sucks but the message is there. History repeats, and incentives rule the world. If you don't think the money supply is out of control, you need to study charts of M2 over the past few decades and it will be abundantly clear....sustainable isn't even on the table. Despite the clickbaity title, watch it.

Please don't bring up poorly copy pasta protocols that have no relevance to Bitcoin. There is only Bitcoin in the fact that it has no leader, and is actually decentralized. Everything else is just a money grab from VC firms or founders...this includes Ethereum which is the original shitcoin. A 70% premine handed out to approximately 100 people and replicates our current financial problem. The only difference being who becomes the new 1% overlords.


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## TedEH (May 25, 2022)

I feel like the fact that you have to study up and "be on the inside" to "get" bitcoin (and whatever other crypto) should be enough of a red flag in itself. Something that takes this much effort to "get" is never going to catch on enough to replace traditional currencies - especially while it burns so much energy for not much reason, and has other problems like how easy it is to lose all your money (via scams or failing hardware etc). It's too complicated for the layperson. I remain unconvinced that crypto isn't just MLMs for techbros, riding entirely on the techbro sense of superiority and penchant for "cleverness". It would be fantastic to have a level-headed conversation with someone who understands the ins-and-outs of crypto without the "I'm so much smarter than everyone in the room" ego trip attached to it.


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## Drew (May 25, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Our debt to gdp is over 130% currently, I didn't get anything backwards. I'm not trying to argue with someone that brings up events over and over that are within that past year. This is a long term endeavor and the numbers don't lie.
> 
> I didn't say you couldn't grasp certain aspects of Bitcoin. It is obvious though that you have alot more to study to understand the expanse/gravity of the situation.
> 
> ...



You got it right here, more or less (the most recent date from the FRED database is Q4, where it's 123%), but here:


penguin_316 said:


> We have a debt issue in this country, our GDP massively exceeds our debts.


You got it backwards.

What do you think I copied and pasted in that post?  

You also didn't address anything I actually said, while we're at it. If you don't want to discuss this stuff, that's fine, but my read at the moment is your posting here is driven more by ideology than by economics and hard data. 

And, if I can steal a few tactics from you, I'd say that I, too, might be turning to ideology rather than data, if I had my net worth fully tied up in an asset class that lost nearly 60% of its value in the last six months, during a period of the exact sort of high monetary inflation that it was supposed to protect against. That's a cheap shot though, so I'd _never_ take that.


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## Drew (May 25, 2022)

TedEH said:


> I feel like the fact that you have to study up and "be on the inside" to "get" bitcoin (and whatever other crypto) should be enough of a red flag in itself. Something that takes this much effort to "get" is never going to catch on enough to replace traditional currencies - especially while it burns so much energy for not much reason, and has other problems like how easy it is to lose all your money (via scams or failing hardware etc). It's too complicated for the layperson. I remain unconvinced that crypto isn't just MLMs for techbros, riding entirely on the techbro sense of superiority and penchant for "cleverness". It would be fantastic to have a level-headed conversation with someone who understands the ins-and-outs of crypto without the "I'm so much smarter than everyone in the room" ego trip attached to it.


It's the hot new thing, and honestly if you want to speculate on directional price movements, well, it's volatile enough and with little enough fundamental framework that I'd call it speculation more than investment, but small allocations to speculative asset classes _can_ make some sense.

But it can't both be a reliable currency, AND a sensible investment you can make a lot of money from. To be the former it's future value has to be predictable. To be the latter its future value has to be very unpredictable. There's no such thing as a free lunch, as they say, and any argument that it's value will go up forever due to finite supply has to assume demand will go up forever, which _any_ asset class will appreciate under those assumptions. Basically, yeah - if you need to be a "true believer" before something makes sense, well... that's a concern.

For the most part I think technical analysis is bullshit, but enough people (particularly in the crypto space, where there's not much else to go on) rely on it that it can indirectly impact the market via the actions of other traders who do follow it, so at a minimum I'd say we're seeing some real resistance in the mid-29s right now. Whether that's consolidation before another leg down, or consolidation before a recovery, anyone's guess.


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## Crungy (May 25, 2022)

What do you folks think about this? I don't know anything about him if he's full of hot air or if he's worth paying attention to.









Bitcoin will survive but could crater to $8,000 and won't end up as the dominant crypto, says Guggenheim's Minerd


"When you break below 30,000 [dollars] consistently, 8,000 [dollars] is the ultimate bottom," Minerd told CNBC on Monday.




markets.businessinsider.com






I did some searching and saw this, so maybe he's not worth listening to lol









Is Bitcoin going to $8k? Guggenheim's Scott Minerd thinks so, but his prediction track record kinda stinks - Stockhead


If you can believe Scott Minerd, CIO of New York-based investment firm Guggenheim Partners, Bitcoin is due to crash further, to US$8k.




stockhead.com.au


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## DarrellM5 (May 25, 2022)

I invest heavily and have been pretty successful with it. The first thing I tell people thinking about giving it a shot is to invest in your own financial education. Books, videos and social media can help a lot but look for reputable sources. 

Some of my strategies are:
- Never leave free money on the table
- Contribute enough to your 401k to get your company's full match
- If your company offers a stock purchase plan, take advantage of it
- Max out a Roth IRA every year if you can
- Max out your HSA and don't use it. (let it ride for your retirement)
- Diversify (In addition to my 401k, Roth IRA, company stock plan and HSA I invest in precious metals, precious metal mining stocks, uranium mining stocks, real estate and crypto. I also swing trade stocks on a continual basis).

The best advice I ever received regarding investing was to 'learn to take profits'. So many people get into an investment and make incredible gains only to ride it back down again thinking it will recover. I've had friends make 6 digit gains in crypto that are now in negative territory because they never took any profits when they had the opportunity.

My best investments ever were in precious metals and precious metal mining stocks. I bought them in 2006 and sold them in 2012. I made 3x on the metals and 5x on the stocks. This allowed me to pay my house off 25 years early with money left over.

I believe the markets are crashing at the moment. There is a chance of a melt-up or blow-off-top first but this will be the worst crash of our lifetimes. My 401k investments have been moved into stable value funds that won't crash with the markets. Once the crash is over I'll move them back in and catch the long, slow ride back up. In the mean time gold, silver and platinum will make incredible gains. Crypto is going through a low spot in its normal cycle and Bitcoin, along with a few others, will go well beyond previous highs in the next couple years. I plan on accumulating more Bitcoin once it drops under 20k.

Something interesting to note is that the markets haven't gone up since 2008 if you take into account the increase in the money supply (quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve and fiscal stimulus by the government). 80% of the dollars in circulation, digital or paper, were created in the last 2 years.

This is my own personal strategy and shouldn't be considered as investment advice to anyone. I'm not a financial planner or investment advisor.


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## Drew (May 25, 2022)

Crungy said:


> What do you folks think about this? I don't know anything about him if he's full of hot air or if he's worth paying attention to.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don't think _anyone _can tell you with confidence where bitcoin is going next. 

I guess if you wanted a bull case for bitcoin, a growing consensus of a "crypto winter" where bitcoin is uninvestible for a few quarters to come could be encouraging; whenever everyone's clustered in one direction, the market may be a little prone to having the apple cart tipped over. But, there's certainly been an evaporation of _confidence_ in crypto over the last six months, and crypto is clearly very dependent on confidence, if network effects are critical to its valuation.


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## penguin_316 (May 25, 2022)

Yea that's obviously a typo and it just came out backwards. I did address your comments, but to be honest dude I'm exhausted with your arguments. If you don't understand the math or don't care to learn that's fine. One things for sure though, don't buy Bitcoin cause it's going to crash.


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## Drew (May 26, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Yea that's obviously a typo and it just came out backwards. I did address your comments, but to be honest dude I'm exhausted with your arguments. If you don't understand the math or don't care to learn that's fine. One things for sure though, don't buy Bitcoin cause it's going to crash.



Have you considered maybe there's a reason you're exhausted by trying to counter my arguments? 

It's bone simple. Bitcoin can't both be the currency of the future, _and_ an idiot-proof no-brainer investment, because to be the former it has to have a stable value over time, and to be the latter it has to be unstable over time. It's certainly proven itself to be the latter over the last couple years, so if you want to consider it an investable asset class, by all means. But it's wildly impractical to use as money. 

Or, of course, you have to find some way to break the mathematical identity that one bitcoin will always be worth one bitcoin. Which, hey, good luck.


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## penguin_316 (May 26, 2022)

No one who has bought bitcoin and waited 4 years has ever lost money. With a $69,000 "top" last November 2021, we will see if that remains true in the future.

Here are the yearly LOWS to determine if it's a investment or money. Yes, it can be both depending on your time horizon. I've realized alot of gains from Bitcoin, and while that's great and all...I always regret it. Since it is functional as money 24/7, it lets me extract value when I need it.

Bitcoin isn't done monetizing, it is in its infancy in that regard. Expand your time horizon. I fully expect it to continue its cycles of highs and lows, that's the good thing about it. That volatility brings outsized returns. Volitility is a feature, not a bug.

"Impractical to use as a money" depends on your time preference. In time, the volatility will smooth out and the gains will diminish with time. I've made absurd amounts of money with Bitcoin(and anyone can, with time), while my 401k has floundered around by comparison.

2012: $4
2013: $65 
2014: $200
2015: $185
2016: $365
2017: $780
2018: $3,200
2019: $3,350
2020: $3,800
2021: $27,734

I'll go ahead and wrap it up there. I'm sure you are going to write some follow up nonsense about how it just doesnt work for you or your clients. You do you. In time, you will revisit this thread and think "the depth of the concept went over my head at the time, but now I see". Once you see it, you can't unsee it.

One btc is one btc. In 20 years, it's just going to also be worth a few millions in usd terms.


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## penguin_316 (May 26, 2022)

Due to this, you don't need to "bet the farm", a small reasonable allocation can overcome your entire portfolio in time if you never rebalance it. Let your winners run and all that...


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## Drew (May 26, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> In time, the volatility will smooth out and the gains will diminish with time.


Sure, I'll bite. Why?

I'm happy to have a reasonable conversation about this, and the blockchain itself is a fascinating technology... but you're making a bunch of claims here backed by nothing more than faith. And I know enough religious zealots to know that arguing against faith is a waste of time.


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## penguin_316 (May 27, 2022)

I don't really want to explain all the nuances to someone who hasn't done any research. It's all in the protocol. Over 19 million bitcoin have been mined and continue to trade hands. The final 2 million will be mined on a fixed supply issuance that will diminish in quantity produced per block roughly every 4 years(this will take over 100 years to occur). If demand stays the same, the price will rise, though we have seen an rapid growth of users similar to the adoption curve of the internet/mobile phone wave(only faster). Religion is a crock, generally meant to calm the weak minded but let's not go there.

Math isn't a religion, it is a reality though and Bitcoin is software. Bitcoin is an open ledger and the metrics of use are available to anyone. It doesn't care if you want to adopt it or not, it will keep putting out a new block on average every 10 minutes.

Supply, demand, and an uncontrollable/uncorruptable monetary network that becomes more scarce with time and increasingly hard to stop with time. I've tried to peak your interest with a few tidbits here and there. The reality is, you will not understand it until you delve into: the software, the math, the politics, the incentives, the economics, the freedoms, the history of money to date, what is money, how moneys have monetized in the past, the value of a digital time stamp network, Bitcoin as a network, the financial policies of governments and federal reserve banks of the globe, the true decentralization of networks and network effects.

Just spitballing off the top of my head, those are some of the major topics you need to understand to grasp the subject. Until you do the research and your doubts are literally basic ass FUD that comes out regularly to confuse the uninformed. Every last thing you have mentioned is easily debunked, literally every single claim.

I'm not here to try to force it down your throat. You will come to it when you are ready. There is enough for everyone, but you come in at the price you deserve.

Just food for thought...are you old enough to remember Napster? Remember when it became inconvenient and was shut down? Now compare that with torrenting files peer to peer across the internet. Once it started, it cannot be shut down. As long as there is a single user transmitting on the network it survives, there is no single head to the hydra. Bitcoin is that, but with more robust incentives to keep the network alive from the individual to the nation state.


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## TedEH (May 27, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Every last thing you have mentioned is easily debunked, literally every single claim.


And yet you've debunked none of it. If it's easy, then please do.

The very simple point that something can't be your basic every-day currency and also a viable investment at the same time is an understandable concept even to someone like me who has no particular financial education. I _am_ however a software guy, so I feel confident in saying that the whole concept of treating the "software as the law" as if it's infallible is the LAST thing I would ever do with my money. You can hate "the man", "the establishment", the banks, etc all you want, but to the average consumer they absolutely provide features and safety that a software-as-the-law model cannot. And we already see this happening all over the place - there's a TON of shady stuff that goes on in crypto, people who lose money, people who lose to scams, etc - and there's nothing you can do about it. Being able to call up your bank and go "I need to cancel or reverse this payment" is a feature, not a bug.

You haven't answered any of the criticism, you've just skirted around it. It sounds to me more like you made a decision to invest, and all of your "research" has been guided by a need to justify that investment - to silence the haters, so to speak. Nobody has debated that you can make money with bitcoin right now. The debate, as I see it, is whether or not crypto has any value outside of the speculative/investing thing.



penguin_316 said:


> are you old enough to remember Napster?


I'm old enough to remember that early file-sharing was the best way to invite malware into your system. It was full up on smut, scams, viruses, etc. Actually, you're right - the analogy does kinda stick, doesn't it? Notice how torrenting is still mostly a niche thing outside of being a piracy tool?


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## penguin_316 (May 27, 2022)

I debunked all of his claims, the difference is time preference. I never said it's good as a day to day asset for using it as money. After 4 years though and an average of a 10x gain, with a 3x low the next 4 year cycle, it is a good money. Also, it is not anyones liability, I have no counterparty risk holding bitcoin. You have very high counterparty risk holding stocks, treasuries, etc. I never once said "hey crypto is the future". Bitcoin is the only thing worth talking about due to how it was released and how it operates.

If you can't understand that you will have triple to 10x the purchasing power every 4 years (diminishing returns as the system grows of course) vs losing 8% CPI compounding year over year.

I'm not going to keep pandering to your arguments when you are clearly being intellectually lazy. Do not buy bitcoin, leave it for the "speculators". I'll keep getting crushed with 10x gains every 4 years, poor me.

Multiple $xx,xxx deposits to my bank account over the past few years says it is money. More than most people make a year in single transactions. Honestly, feels like money to me. Adjust your time preference...


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## penguin_316 (May 27, 2022)

Torrenting is not some niche thing, people across the globe torrent things non stop. I haven't used it in a long time personally, but that doesn't mean the users of the network have slowed at all. Bitcoin is controlled by the nodes of the network. With about $250 and a single software download, you too can decide the fate of the network. Transactions are verified across the globe and fake or fraudulent transactions are rejected. Again, don't dismiss the concept when you have not looked into how it works and why it works.


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## Drew (May 27, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> I don't really want to explain all the nuances to someone who hasn't done any research.


So, asI have a working knowledge of the blockchain, and I'm well aware that bitcoin has a fixed supply, what else exactly do i need to research that will convince me demand will grow over time? 

Setting aside the fact you've ignored all of the questions I've asked and are basically saying "just trust me on this," I guess I'll ask one more question, that I don't realistically expect you to answer, but here goes: 

Why do you even care? This whole sidebar here was prompted by me pointing out that the correlation between tech stocks and bitcoin has jumped up to the 0.6-0.8 range (for non stats people, extremely high, it's a -1 to 1 scale) for the last couple months. That's objectively measureable, and you're not even questioning the fact that it's accurate. I never sai I expect it to stay there forever (I don't), or that it's been the case all along (also easily measureable, and it hasn't). Just, that during a period of honest-to-god high inflation, at a time when the fixed monetary supply _should_ be the most valuable, bitcoin imploded and dropped 60%, highly correlated but an order of magnitude higher than tech stocks. I'm not even saying tech stocks and bitcoin are trading off for the same reasons; my read is bitcoin dropped first due to an overall lack of market confidence as the stock market rolled over and then in the aftermath of the Terra/Luna fiasco, while the tech selloff is largely rate driven (discount rates increasing for firms with high duration projected cashflows). 

If you think bitcoin is the currency of the future and a no-brainer of an investment, does it even matter to you in the least if I think it's highly correlated to the tech sector at the moment? Like, from your standpoint, if you're so sure you're right, why even give a shit? You're clearly not even trying to convince me I'm wrong, so much as tell me you think I'm wrong, so what makes you think this time it's different? 

I mean, the oldest truism in the investment industry is "past performance is not indicative of future returns," so if your argument is Bitcoin has appreciated in the past, so it should appreciate in the future, and whatever is required for that to happen will happen, well... Not sure what to tell you.


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## TedEH (May 27, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Torrenting is not some niche thing, people across the globe torrent things non stop.


Compared to how most people transfer data around the internet, yeah, I'd call it niche. It has it's special case uses, but most internet usage by average/casual users is video streaming, social media, and basic searches.


penguin_316 said:


> With about $250 and a single software download, you too can decide the fate of the network.


This line taken on it's own, out of context, should be terrifying, IMO.


penguin_316 said:


> Transactions are verified across the globe and fake or fraudulent transactions are rejected.


So - correct me if I'm wrong (which I'm sure you will since it's _so easy_), but isn't the only real validation/trust system a question of _who does the hashing work the fastest?_ As in, there's no real "validation" happening against fraudulent transactions (as in fraudulent in their real-world nature), all it does is guard against forks in the chain?

Example:
Someone manages to steal my credentials via social engineering or a data leak or something and move a bunch of my money around.
As far as the blockchain is concerned, you're still following the rules of the system, so this is a valid transaction.


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## penguin_316 (May 27, 2022)

So we're going to ignore the 200% compounding returns for the past 12+ years because all assets are down approximately 30-60%. You math is dubious at best, last I checked the majority of people who have ever bought bitcoin have made money if they rode the wave.

It's a highly liquid asset that trades 24/7 across the world. I'm not going over why demand will persist or any of the other nuances I've taken the time to explain already. Reread what I've wrote, with a hint being increasing scheduled supply scarcity and individual incentives.

Transactions are valid as long as they exist within the rules of consensus. Someone stealing you grandma's bitcoin and selling it happens to be a valid transaction. Sorry, no take backs when you are changing the way we interact with money. When secured properly, Bitcoin is unconfiscatable. You would have to voluntarily give up your keys to gain access. There are scenarios where you could be coerced to do so, but such attack vectors are also possible with cash.

Being your own bank requires personal responsibility, and allows infinite freedoms compared to today's sytem. Have you ever heard of a bail in? Have you ever experienced capital controls trying to exit a country you no longer wish to live in? You might want to Google that if you think the money in the bank is yours and not someone else's liability. Banks enslave you, and give you an iou saying "trust me bro" while levering on average 70 to 1 with your money in the market.

The house of cards is the us dollar, don't shoot the messenger. Just because it's the cleanest of all the dirty shirts, doesn't make it safe. You are being actively debased, forcing you into riskier and riskier assets by default.


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## penguin_316 (May 27, 2022)

It very safe as long as you are following general internet safety. I haven't been scammed by any Nigerian princes lately, but people are scammed pretty often. Otherwise, there would be no incentive to keep spamming people with emails.


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## jaxadam (May 27, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> I don't really want to explain all the nuances to someone who hasn't done any research. It's all in the protocol. Over 19 million bitcoin have been mined and continue to trade hands. The final 2 million will be mined on a fixed supply issuance that will diminish in quantity produced per block roughly every 4 years(this will take over 100 years to occur). If demand stays the same, the price will rise, though we have seen an rapid growth of users similar to the adoption curve of the internet/mobile phone wave(only faster). Religion is a crock, generally meant to calm the weak minded but let's not go there.
> 
> Math isn't a religion, it is a reality though and Bitcoin is software. Bitcoin is an open ledger and the metrics of use are available to anyone. It doesn't care if you want to adopt it or not, it will keep putting out a new block on average every 10 minutes.
> 
> ...



I would feel a lot better about this post if peak -> pique and moneys -> monies


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## penguin_316 (May 27, 2022)

I'm on a shitty android and the spell correct is garbage. You're right though, some spelling errors and random words being substituted totally negates everything I've written. Trolls gonna troll.


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## jaxadam (May 27, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> I'm on a shitty android and the spell correct is garbage. You're right though, some spelling errors and random words being substituted totally negates everything I've written. Trolls gonna troll.



Be sure to like and report!


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## tedtan (May 27, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Trolls gonna troll.


Not so much trolling, you just come across like a newly joined cult member evangelizing to the unwashed masses about how great your cult is, brushing off the points they bring up because they are easily addressed, all the while failing to address those points, instead reading the talking points from the back of the Kool Aid package you just drank.

No one has said that Bitcoin is bad, just that it may well not be as perfect as you’re making it out to be. I’ll add that you want to put down the Kool Aid and try to be reasonable and objective - what happens when the next big thing comes along with even better incentives?


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## TedEH (May 27, 2022)

tedtan said:


> No one has said that Bitcoin is bad, just that it may well not be as perfect as you’re making it out to be.


This.
Although I'm willing to say Bitcoin is bad in some ways. The volatility is bad - it's worked out so far, but that precedent doesn't mean anything for the future. The electricity burned is bad. The lack of safety nets is bad. The 'decentralization' of it I think merits debate, but thinking of it as a good thing doesn't negate criticism. The need to understand a bunch of non-intuitive concepts is bad if you're hoping for it to be adopted by the general public.



penguin_316 said:


> Transactions are valid as long as they exist within the rules of consensus. Someone stealing you grandma's bitcoin and selling it happens to be a valid transaction. Sorry, no take backs when you are changing the way we interact with money.


I don't understand why you'd think that's a good thing. Given that we live in a world where there is _huge_ variance in understanding of finance, technology, other people, etc., and lots of people are _very_ vulnerable to the kinds of attacks we're talking about, then you're basically suggesting we throw anyone under the bus that you haven't deemed savvy enough to use your clever system.



penguin_316 said:


> When secured properly, Bitcoin is unconfiscatable.


It's incredibly naive to think that the average person will be able to adopt proper tech security. We can barely manage online security as it is. By which I mean we can't. The state of internet security is a bit of a joke. Most people are not tech savvy. Even fewer people have any understanding of security. That's a problem. No monetary system can truly become mainstream if it can't deal with the nuances of humanity.


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## MaxOfMetal (May 27, 2022)

TedEH said:


> This.
> Although I'm willing to say Bitcoin is bad in some ways. The volatility is bad - it's worked out so far, but that precedent doesn't mean anything for the future. The electricity burned is bad. The lack of safety nets is bad. The 'decentralization' of it I think merits debate, but thinking of it as a good thing doesn't negate criticism. The need to understand a bunch of non-intuitive concepts is bad if you're hoping for it to be adopted by the general public.
> 
> 
> ...



Those are features, not bugs, for a lot of the pseudo-libertarian survival-of-the-fittest techbros who really eat this stuff up.


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## penguin_316 (May 27, 2022)

Unfortunately, if you don't understand what it means to hold your own keys(and how simple it is) I can't take you seriously. Bitcoin's blind spots are few and far between, with time the dominance increases. Please tell me how a new network will emerge with better incentives, that has no leader and mimics bitcoin. Unfortunately, the cat is out of the bag. The distribution and things people did in the early years of bitcoin cannot be duplicated.

It's a bottom up movement, I don't expect you to understand it. As a matter of fact, I expect you to discount its purpose/utility until it smacks you in the face one day. Survival of the fittest sounds great and all, but Bitcoin actually incentives people from lower economic foothold to adopt it. You dont see the value because the debasement of our currency is hidden from the public in general. If you have no access to banking services in a third world country and your currency is collapsing (for example Turkey/Lebanon/etc.) you are much more likely to embrace something less volatile than your countries currency.

I am in a cult, it's a cult guys. A math cult, an unchangeable unstoppable math cult. Look out.

Do me a favor, give me your best investment ideas with a $10,000 allotment. It can be anything, a house or equities, holding cash(whatever you wish, the sky is the limit).

I'll put my $10,000 of bitcoin today at $28,631 vs. Anything you can throw at me. Remind me, 4+ years....I know how the story goes, do you? That is 0.349 btc.

I'm interested to see what you have in mind. Unless of course, you don't have anything in mind. I expect it to go down to possibly even $8,000ish in the near future. So let's hear it, despite that what do you have that will beat it come May 27, 2026?


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## mastapimp (May 28, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> I am in a cult, it's a cult guys. A math cult, an unchangeable unstoppable math cult. Look out.


You're pushing this like your life depends on it. In fact, you could say the more people you "convert" to bitcoin the more it gets bought up and the value increases, which would be great for you and your fellow coiners.

I've checked in on this thread every few days and you've made zero progress espousing your beliefs. How long are you going to keep banging your head against a wall?


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## penguin_316 (May 28, 2022)

My life doesn't depend on it, it's an insurance policy against all the nonsense they are pushing in the world. I have a career, home, cars, 401k, etc. I also, own insurance on all of those items and with Bitcoin I have insurance against the dollar. Feel free to do what you wish, when the tide rolls out we'll see who's swimming naked.

We cannot allow the us treasury bond yield to rise much more or we won't be able to repay the interest on that debt. To artificially keep those rates low requires yield control (that is, "printing" money out nothing and becoming the buyer of last resort for anyone selling their treasuries). The US is in a much better spot relative to other countries but it must debase the dollar to keep up the ponzi. It is just one of many reasons they must expand the monetary supply.

I guess no one watched the video I linked earlier.


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## tedtan (May 28, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Unfortunately, if you don't understand what it means to hold your own keys(and how simple it is) I can't take you seriously. Bitcoin's blind spots are few and far between, with time the dominance increases. Please tell me how a new network will emerge with better incentives, that has no leader and mimics bitcoin. Unfortunately, the cat is out of the bag. The distribution and things people did in the early years of bitcoin cannot be duplicated.


And before Bitcoin none of that was possibe. But technology advanced, as it does, and Bitcoin came to be. And as technology continues to advance, new opportunities will come about, too. It’s the way of the world. And while your “has no leader and mimics bitcoin” may be a feature that some look for, it isn’t a requirement of a new opportunity.




penguin_316 said:


> I am in a cult, it's a cult guys. A math cult, an unchangeable unstoppable math cult. Look out.


Bitcoin isn’t a cult. What’s cult-like is your behavior. And if anything, it is a cult of myopia - you drank the Kool Aid and ignore everything except the positives of Bitcoin, but in reality, there is a whole world of possibilities out there.




penguin_316 said:


> Do me a favor, give me your best investment ideas with a $10,000 allotment. It can be anything, a house or equities, holding cash(whatever you wish, the sky is the limit).
> 
> I'll put my $10,000 of bitcoin today at $28,631 vs. Anything you can throw at me. Remind me, 4+ years....I know how the story goes, do you? That is 0.349 btc.
> 
> I'm interested to see what you have in mind. Unless of course, you don't have anything in mind. I expect it to go down to possibly even $8,000ish in the near future. So let's hear it, despite that what do you have that will beat it come May 27, 2026?


I’m not sure where this straw man came from, but I never said Bitcoin is a bad investment. Just that you should realize that it is not the be all, end all you make it out to be.


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## penguin_316 (May 28, 2022)

There won't be another Bitcoin. It's not drinking the Kool Aid to understand something with the properties it has and the features can only be created once. After that, the distribution of anything new would be all out of sorts due to the knowledge of Bitcoin existing previous.

Having no leader is key. All previous attempts at digital money all failed for the same reason: centralization of the network. Leaders are additional attack surfaces and are human after all. We already have a system where 12 individuals in a room choose the fate of our lives. We don't need another system to recreate the exact same situation.


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## TedEH (May 28, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> There won't be another Bitcoin


Isn't there something like 10k competing cryptocurrencies, even if you ignore the dead ones? NFTs aren't a thing? ETH isn't a thing? The whole proof-of-stake conversation isn't a thing? I'm sure you'll have some hand-wave-y reasons why they're irrelevant.



penguin_316 said:


> Leaders are additional attack surfaces and are human after all.


I thought we didn't care about security or potential attack vectors as long as we're following the rules of the system?


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## penguin_316 (May 28, 2022)

70% of ETH supply is in the hands of roughly 100 people. Vitalik, the charismatic leader is an extreme weak point. Its been hard forked at the users expense due to pooor coding, etc. The list is actually enless with that one. It's the original shit coin, and mimics the current system we have.

We care about attack vectors of the protocol. We don't care if people foolishly give away their money. I'm sure you use debit or credit cards on the daily, despite endless scams being linked to their usage. You don't throw the baby out with the bathwater.


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## TedEH (May 28, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> I'm sure you use debit or credit cards on the daily, despite endless scams being linked to their usage


I do, but they have systems to protect their users in the inevitable case that something goes wrong.

I actually did have some bitcoin for a while. It even increased in value while I held it. Then the company/exchange I had used (which was known as the biggest crypto exchange in Canada at the time) went bankrupt, the owner died, and hundreds of millions of dollars (including my bitcoin) just vanished into the void that is the internet. There's no way I could have known it would happen, and there was nothing I could do about it. As far as anyone would have said at the time, this was a reputable and trustworthy entity at the time.

This would never happen with my "traditional" accounts. The worst that's ever happened to me was that some kind of mistake was made, there was some mild frustration, then it was fixed, and everyone moved on with their lives. We have corrective measures for scams and mistakes because both of those things are an inevitability regardless of your currency/system.

You might say "well, that's just you". To which I would say you're just as much basing your angle on your own experience, and ignoring any other anecdotes. I'm sure bitcoin works great for you. That's great. All the power to you. It still has it's problems.


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## penguin_316 (May 28, 2022)

Step one of bitcoin is buy bitcoin. Step two is to take control of your keys and get control of your money. While it is shitty that happened to you, the entire point is to take control of your money.

Sorry you got screwed by Quadriga.
Sorry people got screwed with Silk Road.
Sorry people got screwed with Luna.
Sorry people are about to get screwed with Celcius.
Too many to post really, I think you get my drift. Shady things surrounding a new industry. None of them actually have anything to do with Bitcoin.

Don't trust, verify.


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## TedEH (May 28, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Too many to post really, I think you get my drift. Shady things surrounding a new industry. None of them actually have anything to do with Bitcoin.


Except they have _everything_ to do with bitcoin because you need to go through an exchange like that to get it in the first place, and the average person isn't going to know to take the money off the platform, I didn't end up moving my money off-site because a) the bitcoin zealots at the time assured me it was as safe as it gets and b) the fees involved with the transfer were pretty ridiculous.

The fact you have so many examples to cite should be a red flag.


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## penguin_316 (May 28, 2022)

It's easy to blame others for your own mistakes. I had a brand new ibby prestige 8 string with bare knuckles a few years ago, $2500ish or more...

My hooligan nephew was staying with me for a few months, long story short he stole it from under my bed. I didn't quit playing guitar though, and I didn't ever get it back. However, I did change how I stored my valuables.

"Not your keys, not your coins" has been around forever. Even in the earliest of Bitcoin days. I have alot of examples because people are lazy/ignorant/gullible etc...I doubt society ever gets away from the concept of scammers and conartists.


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## TedEH (May 28, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> I have alot of examples because people are lazy/ignorant/gullible etc...I doubt society ever gets away from the concept of scammers and conartists.


This, but take it and turn it around the other way. A system that doesn't provide for this reality can't be adopted by those same people. I'd ask how the owner of Quadriga dying is "my mistake", but I don't think I have any interest in how you'd answer that.

But now you got me more curious about stolen guitars - how does one lose a 2k item to a family member and have nothing they can do about it? I can think of ways, but I'm more interested in the story there. Is this someone you had reason to distrust in the first place? I'd guess so if you were hiding things under the bed.


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## penguin_316 (May 28, 2022)

Quadriga was basically a ponzi scheme, and there are a few movies/documentaries about it. The guy was using people's money as his own and living the high life. He was a shady guy and did shady things. Your mistake isn't that he died or whatever. Your mistake is trusting any exchange beyond the initial transaction.

Not your keys, not your coins.

No one's hiding things under there bed. I have a fuckton of guitars, amps, etc. In order to access them quickly I usually have a few stacked under the bed in cases. What do you want me to do? Sue him? Call the cops? I did the right thing. He was a high schooler at the time. I told him he may have gotten away with it this time, but in the real world this is considered a felony. So there you go, cool story bro.


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## TedEH (May 29, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> What do you want me to do?


To tell the story, 'cause you left a whole lot of unanswered questions. Why couldn't you get it back? Did he leave the country? Did he sell it?



penguin_316 said:


> Sue him? Call the cops?


I mean, yeah, if someone stole 2k from me, I'd absolutely _at the very least_ file a police complaint. And if it was family, I likely know where they live and can go retrieve my stuff.



penguin_316 said:


> I did the right thing.


Which is what? Let him get away with it?



penguin_316 said:


> He was a high schooler at the time. I told him he may have gotten away with it this time, but in the real world this is considered a felony.


High schooler or not, he DOES live in the real world. Maybe the law works differently there, but his legal guardians would have still been responsible for the crime here. You don't strike me as the kind of person to just let 2k go for no reason.


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## penguin_316 (May 29, 2022)

It was more like 3k with the pickups etc. Yea, I let it go. He already had plenty of legal issues. I did him a solid by letting him stay over while he got his shit together. Only he never did and stole stuff as well. I did the right thing by letting it go. Nothing was going to come of it, and lessons were learned all around.


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## jaxadam (May 29, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> It was more like 3k with the pickups etc. Yea, I let it go. He already had plenty of legal issues. I did him a solid by letting him stay over while he got his shit together. Only he never did and stole stuff as well. I did the right thing by letting it go. Nothing was going to come of it, and lessons were learned all around.



This is like… as vague as your penchant for bitcoin.


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## penguin_316 (May 30, 2022)

Dollar Cost Averaging Bitcoin - dcaBTC


Dollar cost averaging Bitcoin is a popular strategy. This bitcoin investment calculator shows the return of a BTC DCA strategy.




dcabtc.com





Allocate accordingly, you're going to wake up in 10+ years and think "damn, why am I so closed minded". Can't say I didn't warn you....there us nothing vague about buying bitcoin on the cheap while you can. It's pretty cut and dry. Learn about it later, the opportunity won't be here for long.


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## Drew (May 31, 2022)

tedtan said:


> Not so much trolling, you just come across like a newly joined cult member evangelizing to the unwashed masses about how great your cult is, brushing off the points they bring up because they are easily addressed, all the while failing to address those points, instead reading the talking points from the back of the Kool Aid package you just drank.
> 
> No one has said that Bitcoin is bad, just that it may well not be as perfect as you’re making it out to be. I’ll add that you want to put down the Kool Aid and try to be reasonable and objective - what happens when the next big thing comes along with even better incentives?


Yeah, I'm checking out of this thread, at least with respect to bitcoin. I don't know if it's a matter of faith or something else here, but when you're debating the merits of a high-volatility asset class with someone who absolutely refuses to recognize that volatility being high is another way of saying valuations are very uncertain, and if you don't agree it's because _you_, and not _he_, are uninformed, well... I do love tilting at windmills as much as the next guy, but I've already wasted too much time on this thread.

Unless of course someone _else_, with capacity for critical thought, can provide a concise explanation of why demand for bitcoin is guaranteed to increase with time, of course. Short of that, though, I just don't give enough of a shit about the subject of bitcoin to keep trying to discuss this with someone who wants to make giant sweeping generalizations and optimistic projections and won't get into actual detail.


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## Drew (May 31, 2022)

One observation on the broader economy, for those who are investing here.

I've been of the belief that we're going to see an economic slowdown in the second half of the year/start of 2023 for a while now. Saying that as a background.

Last week saw some renewed strength out of the equity markets, with commentators pointing to the fact that firmness was pretty broad, and we didn't see a selloff in energy (which had done well, on the back of higher oil prices) in favor of names and sectors that were rebounding. And, while to be fair we're off about a percent today, that's a valid point and is a bit encouraging.

But I think one of the things that has to be kept in mind here is in many ways (and in part because we have a federal reserve very focused on clarity of communication right now, in far cry from the Greenspan days) the market is leading the economy, and not vice versa. Fed officials have estimated that with the rate at which the Fed Funds futures market, and the term structure of Treasury rates, have moved to price in the expected Fed Funds rate path indicated by the Fed's median dot plot, we're in an environment that's seen the equivalent of about two additional rate hikes beyond what the Fed has actually done, and that the market is helping the Fed, essentially, tighten monetary conditions.

I kind of wonder if we're going to start seeing that in tomorrow's JOLTS job openings report. The startup space is already contracting - you don't have to go much beyond 25 year old "entrepreneurs" making "is this your first economic downturn? Here are five tips!" Tiktok videos, but mid- and late-tier startups have already begun cutting headcount, and of the friends I have in this space, thankfully all have been told their jobs are safe, but that their firms are putting hiring freezes in place and halting plans to expand. Startups are a very economy-sensitive class of businesses for a number of reasons - surge during the good times, implode during the bad - and I think we may be seeing the beginning of firms stopping hiring like it's going out of style, and doing some serious belt-tightening.

The disparity between the JOLTS report estimation of open positions, and the size of the unemployed workforce, has garnered a lot of attention - if that ratio were to contract pretty significantly over the summer to more "normal" levels, that'd buy the Fed some breathing room, I think. But, to put a slightly finer point on it, the market belatedly starting to freak out about the possibility of a recession, could start to cause very recession-looking things to start happening to labor demand.


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## penguin_316 (May 31, 2022)

To he honest, you are exhausting. I've listed multiple reasons for the protocol to continue expanding at the current rate. Incentives rule the world, not your opinion.

It all comes down to trust. Reread what I've written prior, there is no point rehashing it. Bitcoin strengthens energy grids, encourages miners to secure the network, and allows individuals to sit outside of our currencies active debasement.

Trying to guess the direction of the markets in the short term is irrelevant once you understand the debt spiral the US dollar is facing. There are only two outcomes: default on the debt and lose power OR print our way out of the problem and kick the can down the road.

The problem is accelerating and must be met with exponentially more monetary expansion to combat the issue. In a nutshell, we're in the starting moments of a 2001 style recession which will need to have large scale government interventions to return to equilibrium. Yet, you can't financially engineer your way our of just in time supply chains. If you think supply chains will fix themselves overnight, I have s bridge to sell you.


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## Drew (May 31, 2022)

I'm "exhausting" because I keep asking you to provide some sort of concrete evidence for your belief.  Whatever, I honestly don't give enough of a shit to keep this up, you can believe in whatever wildly optimistic application of magic fairy dust it takes for demand for _anything_ to be sure to grow unabated. Suit yourself.


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## penguin_316 (May 31, 2022)

You're exhausting because you cannot read and decipher the facts. Rather than dispute each item, you just say "oh yea?" and call it a day.

Those who have the most to lose, have the greatest incentive to ignore the change. You are literally a taxi driver saying Uber has no use case. Well, the market chooses the winners and losers, not you. I think we have our answer.


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## TedEH (May 31, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Bitcoin strengthens energy grids


Say what now?  How does burning excessive amounts of energy strengthen the grid? The Grid is not a muscle that needs miners to keep it moving so it doesn't get lazy.


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## penguin_316 (May 31, 2022)

Tell me you know nothing about Bitcoin without telling me you know nothing about Bitcoin.


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## TedEH (May 31, 2022)

More like tell me anything that isn't just a talking point without...
You know what, never mind.


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## jaxadam (May 31, 2022)

Ten years ago I bought some bitcoins for $70 a pop and stuck them under my bed. I know I could have put them in the bank but there’s nothing shady about hiding them under my bed, I had other currencys (sic) everywhere else so I just put them there for easy access. Anyway this chick I was dating came over and stole them and even though they’re worth about 30k a pop now, it’s all good, lessons learned all around. I did the right thing. I did her a solid. She was exhausting.


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## Millul (May 31, 2022)

BRB, gotta send out the message to ABB, GE and SIEMENS that they don't have a clue about grid strenght and stability


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## jaxadam (May 31, 2022)

Millul said:


> BRB, gotta send out the message to ABB, GE and SIEMENS that they don't have a clue about grid strenght and stability



Bro if you can’t see it then you’re blind bro and if you can’t hear it you’re deaf bro


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## Millul (May 31, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> Bro if you can’t see it then you’re blind bro and if you can’t hear it you’re deaf bro



You 200% (that's the growth rate right there bro) righ bro - it's mining we're talking about here, gotta CC Glencore in that memo


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## jaxadam (May 31, 2022)

Millul said:


> You 200% (that's the growth rate right there bro) righ bro - it's mining we're talking about here, gotta CC Glencore in that memo



There’s this carpet cleaning company or flooring service or some kind of van that has been driving around here for years and they had plastered on the side “We take Bitcoin!” Imagine collecting bitcoin as payment for cleaning carpets years ago and now being a majority stakeholder in the Jacksonville Jaguars.


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## penguin_316 (Jun 1, 2022)

Might be a reason ConocoPhillips, for example, is mining Bitcoin. Fidelity has been mining and intergrating it into their portfolio since 2014. I can go on and on, with more examoles but you dont actually care abkut reality. You feel youre reality is truth. Unfortunately, the exponential rise of bitcoin and the numerous "deaths" undermines your opinion. How many times can it die before it finally dies? 

You know what, it's probably nothing.

Speculators just speculating, according to sevenstring finance gurus.


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## TedEH (Jun 1, 2022)

I'd be willing to bet you haven't convinced everyone yet because you haven't said "bro" enough. Or you could try talking down to them more, that seems to be helping.


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## narad (Jun 1, 2022)

Go figure, I would have thought the investment thread would have had less antagonism than the like politics or gun control threads. SSO always surprises.


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## Drew (Jun 1, 2022)

narad said:


> Go figure, I would have thought the investment thread would have had less antagonism than the like politics or gun control threads. SSO always surprises.


I mean, really, it doesn't.


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## Drew (Jun 1, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Might be a reason ConocoPhillips, for example, is mining Bitcoin. Fidelity has been mining and intergrating it into their portfolio since 2014. I can go on and on, with more examoles but you dont actually care abkut reality. You feel youre reality is truth. Unfortunately, the exponential rise of bitcoin and the numerous "deaths" undermines your opinion. How many times can it die before it finally dies?
> 
> You know what, it's probably nothing.
> 
> Speculators just speculating, according to sevenstring finance gurus.


You know, missed this earlier - ConocoPhillips isn't actually mining bitcoin, they're selling excess gas that would otherwise be burnt off to a third party miner. They're not actually mining bitcoin themselves.

Fidelity is a bit more complex, but even then... The company has had a subsidiary that allows the firm to offer indirect crypto exposure to their clients since, I believe, 2018, and a few months ago added 2-3% exposure to crypto - again, indirectly via ETFs, and not direct holdings - to a couple of their models a few months back earlier this year, as a diversification play. That's well short of the "shit, everything we know about finance is wrong, let's go all in on crypto" attitude you're taking here, in all of your own posts. They clearly don't agree, or they wouldn't have 97-98% of these models in "traditional" financial assets.

If you think me belittling your intelligence somewhere here would make this a more persuasive post, which based on your own posts here is something you evidently feel gives a post more weight, let me know and I'll be happy to comply.


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## Drew (Jun 13, 2022)

The S&P's close today brings it more than 20% below its January 3rd high, meaning we're officially in bear market territory, on a combination of inflaiton worries and recession fears. 

Bitcoin, meanwhile, I think has broken out of its trading range.  Lost nearly that today.


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## thebeesknees22 (Jun 13, 2022)

Drew said:


> The S&P's close today brings it more than 20% below its January 3rd high, meaning we're officially in bear market territory, on a combination of inflaiton worries and recession fears.
> 
> Bitcoin, meanwhile, I think has broken out of its trading range.  Lost nearly that today.


goodbye monies..... goodbye...


at least I don't own bitcoin or any crypto. lol


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## Drew (Jun 13, 2022)

thebeesknees22 said:


> goodbye monies..... goodbye...
> 
> 
> at least I don't own bitcoin or any crypto. lol


Eh, investment, unlike speculation, is a long haul event. Match your risk tolerance to your time horizon - I'm sadly still measuring my time to retirement in decades and not years, so I'm not losing much sleep over this. I've got a chunk of assets that's been sitting in cash and equivalents for much of this year anyway to try to catch the bottom, and i'm not sure we're there yet, so...

But, at the same time, we can't have an investment thread, and _not_ post about the S&P entering a bear market.


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## thebeesknees22 (Jun 13, 2022)

Drew said:


> Eh, investment, unlike speculation, is a long haul event. Match your risk tolerance to your time horizon - I'm sadly still measuring my time to retirement in decades and not years, so I'm not losing much sleep over this. I've got a chunk of assets that's been sitting in cash and equivalents for much of this year anyway to try to catch the bottom, and i'm not sure we're there yet, so...
> 
> But, at the same time, we can't have an investment thread, and _not_ post about the S&P entering a bear market.


haha true true
most of my investments are in retirement funds that i can't touch for a long long time so i'm not really sweating things

I just had the unfortunate timing of opening a new ETF account last fall at what turned out to be the peak lol . On the plus side I won't need that money for quite a while. It does make me wish I would have waited though, but there was just no way to know at the time.


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## jaxadam (Jun 13, 2022)

Part of the problem with investing, even when using tax-advantaged accounts like an HSA, Roth, SEP, or traditional IRA is that it is little more than a glorified savings accounts for individuals with 1:1 time:money ratios.

It is becoming increasingly clear that building wealth is a byproduct of creating multiple streams of income. Even at a high hourly rate, trading your time for money 1-to-1 with today's expense layouts just does not produce substantial earnings/wealth; building a system of income streams (side gig products, automation, real estate rentals, etc.) is essentially the only viable solution. Hourly employees, personal trainers, real estate agents, etc. that are still implementing 1:1 time:money compensation schemes are becoming obsolete. Hourly employees, personal trainers, real estate agents, etc. that are implementing side gig products (Amazon hot sauce store, automating fitness training "subscriptions", purchasing wholesale real estate properties for rentals, etc.) will be implementing compensation schemes that will allow them the opportunity to grown exponentially and generate wealth. I've always said the best investment is in yourself.


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## tedtan (Jun 13, 2022)

When looking at salary/hourly rate for wealth building, you’ll always cap out because there are only s many hours in a week. To move beyond that, you need to either start a business where you can take part of what the employees generate or own things that make money (rental properties, businesses, software titles, patents, etc.). And, as Adam mentioned, today you’ll see things like subscriptions to a service (think online guitar lesson providers like LickLibrary and others) rather than one on one service provision when possible to increase the money generated.

But we as individuals have limited time, so there is only so much we can do without taking advantage of these other options.


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## Drew (Jun 14, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> Part of the problem with investing, even when using tax-advantaged accounts like an HSA, Roth, SEP, or traditional IRA is that it is little more than a glorified savings accounts for individuals with 1:1 time:money ratios.





tedtan said:


> When looking at salary/hourly rate for wealth building, you’ll always cap out because there are only s many hours in a week. To move beyond that, you need to either start a business where you can take part of what the employees generate or own things that make money (rental properties, businesses, software titles, patents, etc.). And, as Adam mentioned, today you’ll see things like subscriptions to a service (think online guitar lesson providers like LickLibrary and others) rather than one on one service provision when possible to increase the money generated.


Well, I mean, the other option I see here is to maximize the money-to-time ratio, salary/hourly rate. If income exceeds expenses by enough, then the number of hours in the week quickly stops mattering. 

That's of course not an easy thing to do, but it IS possible.


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## Drew (Jul 6, 2022)

This is worth a look, for those of you including the broader economic outlook n your investment process: 









GDPNow


Provides a "nowcast" of the official GDP growth estimate prior to its first release.




www.atlantafed.org





The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast basically uses real-time releases plugged into the GDP calculaton to provide an increasingly better estimate of the next quarter's GDP as more and more quarterly data comes available. And in the last few days, after an anemic personal consumption expenditure release and sharp downward revisions in consumer spending, and upwards revisions in inventories, in Q1 GDP, this has ticked down from close to flat, to an estimation of a -2.1% contraction (next revision out 7/7) when the Q2 GDP report is released. 

The textbook technical definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, so with a -1.6% annualized print from Q1, there's a pretty good chance the US economy is currently in recession, in part from high inflation dampening consumer spending, and in part by the Fed raising rates to increase the costs of funds to combat that inflation.


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## macky (Jul 7, 2022)

Retired in Jan from the algorithmic prop trading world. In my 40s but look about 120 lol. Mostly swing/position trading these days and BTFD because I'm a junkie for the action.


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## penguin_316 (Jul 8, 2022)

Alot of "haha bitcoin go down" while stocks and bonds are suffering the worst nuke they've ever seen.

It's all one trade, right? Can you tell me how the bond yields inverting is a good thing again? I must have missed that speech.


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## Drew (Jul 12, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Alot of "haha bitcoin go down" while stocks and bonds are suffering the worst nuke they've ever seen.
> 
> It's all one trade, right? Can you tell me how the bond yields inverting is a good thing again? I must have missed that speech.


It's typically a recession indicator, suggesting the Fed has gotten too aggressive at the front of the curve (pushing shorter yields up) and an increased interest in risk-off trades have caused the long end to fall as people buy longer Treasuries and bid the price of the 10yr up, and in turn the yield down.

It's a good thing if you bought Treasuries near their high of 3.5%, as you're probably up about 4-5% in a couple weeks from then. It's also a good thing if you're shorting equities or long out of the money puts that could become in the money puts if the stock market drops further. 

As far as "the worst nuke they've ever seen," YTD the S&P500 is down about -18.5% while a fairly broad market bond index like the Bloomberg US Aggregate is down 10.2%. If you held a 60-40 portfolio comprised of these two indices, you'd be down about -15.2%. With Bitcoin down just over -57% over the same time, you'd be outperforming a Bitcoin portfolio by about 40 percentage points. 

So, I think some perspective is helpful here.


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## penguin_316 (Jul 15, 2022)

I think some perspective is great, especially when the bitcoin value rose from 3.2k to 69.5k in just under 3 years, who cares if it "crashed 57%".

You need to stop hiding behind cherry picked data. When my average buys are in the 4k range it's about a 15x (+1500%) return in under 3 years...using a conservative 60k as a reference as I sold around 53k to 60k a chunk of my holdings.

In the same time, the S and P went up approximately .77x (77%).....I have a 60-40 portfolio, and it's garbage. You mentioned earlier your proffession specializes in fixed income. Inflation prints of 9.1% and your pushing a contract with yields ranging from 1% to sub 3%? Should inflation abate, do you really see those numbers coming down below 3% any time soon?

So here's the part where I say again, looks like your job is moot. Getting paid to put people into contracts where they are guaranteed to lose purchasing power over the duration. The last thing on earth I'd want to own right now is a US bond of any duration. Perspective.


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## jaxadam (Jul 15, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> Inflation prints of 9.1% and your pushing a contract with yields ranging from 1% to sub 3%?



*you're


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## StevenC (Jul 15, 2022)

Quick reminder that Bitcoin is basically Beanie Babies with less functionality, and a greater fool scam. Bitcoin is down because they're running out of fools.

If you're buying Bitcoin you're either a fool or a scam artist.


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## thebeesknees22 (Jul 15, 2022)

StevenC said:


> Quick reminder that Bitcoin is basically Beanie Babies with less functionality, and a greater fool scam. Bitcoin is down because they're running out of fools.
> 
> If you're buying Bitcoin you're either a fool or a scam artist.


lol that's probably the best analogy I've heard for bitcoin.


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## Drew (Jul 15, 2022)

penguin_316 said:


> *cherry picks data*





penguin_316 said:


> you need to stop hiding behind cherry picked data.


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## penguin_316 (Jul 15, 2022)

It's not really cherry picked, what do you want to use 2009 to present? Surely you don't, you're pushing an agenda and it wouldn't fit your narrative.

Whether bitcoin goes up, down, or sideways doesn't even matter. If you hold bonds now and they raise interest rates, your bonds go down in value. If they lower interest rates, you gain a small nominal value of your bonds, but you're engaged in a losing contract.

Keep glossing over that key point. Bonds used to be the risk free trade for 40 years, now it is the return free risk. I'll stick with bitcoin. You guys cling to your 60-40, don't say you weren't given a heads up though. (Yes, I'm still hedged with a 60-40, but I know the gains it see do not keep up with inflation/monetary expansion.)


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## tedtan (Jul 15, 2022)

“The lady doth protest too much, methinks.”


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## jaxadam (Jul 15, 2022)

So that’s how it feels to chew 5 gum.


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## Drew (Jul 28, 2022)

Drew said:


> This is worth a look, for those of you including the broader economic outlook n your investment process:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


First GDP estimation came in today. I expected contraction in the 1-1.4% range, Bloomberg's survey was for +0.4% growth... and we got -0.9%. Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers, what I look to for a better estimate of "core" demand, fell from +2% to -0.3%, so while there's room to nitpick Q1 as "not _really_ a contraction" and due to things like international trade and inventory levels, Q2 is unabashedly soft, and got softer as the month went on.

The traditional working definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, which we now have. For now I've been referring to this as a "technical recession" because we haven't really seen marked weakness in the workforce or labor demand, but labor demand IS slowing and the housing market is rolling over.

Bond yields are coming screaming in, and stocks are rising, on the prospect of less Fed tightening over concern about a recession. I think this is wrong - Powell may have indicated he's going data-dependent in yesterday's press conference, but he's been pretty clear that the Fed isn't blinking until inflation is falling substantially, and if it takes pushing the economy into recession to beat inflation, they're prepared to do that. I think the long end of the Treasury curve is probably returning closer to fair value, but the short end should be higher and the curve should be more inverted than it is.


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## jaxadam (Jul 28, 2022)

This is hilarious…









Average salary Americans need to feel 'financially healthy' at every age — CNBC


With inflation rising, 38% of Americans have begun to feel "financially unhealthy." Each generation has different expectations for how financial health looks.




apple.news


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## Drew (Jul 28, 2022)

jaxadam said:


> This is hilarious…
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Honestly, a lot of those differences are probably directly as the result of market conditions they were raised in. 

Boomers had a bit of an inflation scare in the 70s, but those days are long past and since then have benefitted from decades of strong equity growth and home price appreciation, and falling interest rates. Their houses are mostly paid for, and most of their lives have been smooth economic sailing

Gen z, those old enough to be in the workforce today, were born around the time of the dot-com bubble, were maybe 10 when the Great Recession hit, and were just graduating from college when Covid hit. They've lived through two recessions and a pandemic, and now a period of high inflation. If they themselves didn't get laid off, then a whole bunch of their friends have. That shit fucks you up. Even an millenial friend of mine who I had a bunch of conversations about investment with a few years before covid hit described her risk tolerance as "whatever is closest to under your matress" because, well, her experience with markets was pretty strongly colored by them collapsing right after she got out of college. 

I'd probably need a lot more current income to feel secure, too.


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## tedtan (Jul 28, 2022)

Yeah, but practically, what jobs available to Gen Z employees are paying $172k/year out of the gate?

There may be a few engineering or physicist jobs at defense contractors working on hypersonic missiles or next gen war planes that would get close several years out of school, but not many people qualify for those jobs.


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## Drew (Aug 1, 2022)

tedtan said:


> Yeah, but practically, what jobs available to Gen Z employees are paying $172k/year out of the gate?
> 
> There may be a few engineering or physicist jobs at defense contractors working on hypersonic missiles or next gen war planes that would get close several years out of school, but not many people qualify for those jobs.


Wall Street and silicon valley, I'd say. Some consultant positions as well. Tough to land those, though, unless you've gone to the "right" schools, so if that's what Gen-Z thinks it takes to feel financially secure in America today, well, that's pretty much why everyone I know under 30 identifies as a socialist, I'd say.


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## tedtan (Aug 1, 2022)

Drew said:


> Wall Street and silicon valley, I'd say. Some consultant positions as well. Tough to land those, though, unless you've gone to the "right" schools, so if that's what Gen-Z thinks it takes to feel financially secure in America today, well, that's pretty much why everyone I know under 30 identifies as a socialist, I'd say.


Even then the career path for those jobs is usually to graduate from undergrad, get four or five years’ worth of experience, go to the right business school for an MBA, and then get the Wall Street trading gig or the consulting gig with McKinsey or Bain or whomever when you’re around 28 to 30.

So yeah, it explains your acquaintances’ ideologies.


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## Crungy (Aug 1, 2022)

Sounds like the same old same old but the dollar amount jumped up.


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## Drew (Aug 2, 2022)

tedtan said:


> Even then the career path for those jobs is usually to graduate from undergrad, get four or five years’ worth of experience, go to the right business school for an MBA, and then get the Wall Street trading gig or the consulting gig with McKinsey or Bain or whomever when you’re around 28 to 30.
> 
> So yeah, it explains your acquaintances’ ideologies.


I've seen the reverse much more often on Wall Street, to be fair - graduate with an econ degree, take an investment banking job, work 80 hour weeks for 2-3 years while making bank, then either get bumped onto partner track or quit and pursue a MBA and then go work for a hedge fund or consulting firm. No clue on SV, not my area.

I was a literature major, so needless to say this was NOT my path.


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## tedtan (Aug 2, 2022)

Drew said:


> I've seen the reverse much more often on Wall Street, to be fair - graduate with an econ degree, take an investment banking job, work 80 hour weeks for 2-3 years while making bank, then either get bumped onto partner track or quit and pursue a MBA and then go work for a hedge fund or consulting firm. No clue on SV, not my area.
> 
> I was a literature major, so needless to say this was NOT my path.


That’s interesting. It sounds like things have changed a bit since I looked into it years (e.g., decades) ago. Back then an economics or finance undergrad was common, but you still usually had to get the MBA. Not so much to actually learn anything new, but just to check it off as a formal requirement.

But I was focused more on consulting than banking, so maybe I’m remembering more in terms of that focus.


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## Drew (Aug 2, 2022)

tedtan said:


> That’s interesting. It sounds like things have changed a bit since I looked into it years (e.g., decades) ago. Back then an economics or finance undergrad was common, but you still usually had to get the MBA. Not so much to actually learn anything new, but just to check it off as a formal requirement.
> 
> But I was focused more on consulting than banking, so maybe I’m remembering more in terms of that focus.


That kind of tracks, you know - the people I knew who graduated and went straight into a big name consulting firm were generally PhD students, and the ones I knew who didn't usually did so after the I-banking circuit and a business degree.


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