US Political Discussion: Trump Administration Edition (Rules in OP)

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    27,427
    Likes Received:
    2,821
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/09/ex-trump-lawyer-told-mueller-trump-is-too-dumb-to-testify

    This is pretty scathing:

    tl;dr - Trump's lawyer painted Trump testifying in the Mueller probe as a national security risk, because foreign nations might read the transcript and realize he's a fucking idiot. This from Bob Woodward, who made a name for himself in a little investigation of minor import known as "Watergate."
     
    vilk and zappatton2 like this.
  2. tedtan

    tedtan SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    4,112
    Likes Received:
    613
    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2009
    Location:
    Never Neverland
    Yeah, the last couple of weeks look to have been pretty damning for Trump. But we'll still have to wait and see, if any, action comes of it.
     
  3. Randy

    Randy ROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOU Super Moderator

    Messages:
    20,271
    Likes Received:
    3,212
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Still standing by my position that I don't think an impeachable offense that happened BEFORE he came into office will come to the surface. There's a narrow path for obstruction and related violations but I still don't see that ending his term early.

    The part about all of this that is not just possible/theoretical, but real, is how much this effects his chances of re-election and how big a shadow this casts over the mid-terms. I'm not guaranteeing anything (Dems gonna Dem) but the Republicans used to have a little room to wiggle away from Trump depending on his reputation leading into he mid-terms but now they're chained to him inseparably, and every negative piece of press that hits him becomes a reflection of them.
     
    synrgy and JSanta like this.
  4. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    27,427
    Likes Received:
    2,821
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    To your first point... I'd say from a simple Bayesian standpoint, the probability of something impeachable from before he came into office is certainly higher, given that Flynn has had to step down for undisclosed conversations with Russia that he previously denied, Sessions has had to recuse himself due to undisclosed meetings with Russia that he previously denied, after Trump Jr. had a meeting with Russians offering dirt during the election which he first didn't disclose and then tried to dismiss as about adoption matters, before pre-empting the Times story by releasing the email chain, etc... Like, if you assigned a probability on the morning after the election that Trump had done something impeachable with Russia, I think updating your priors with all the above has to lead to that probability having increased, you know? From there, it's just a matter of what your initial probability was and how much you've had to adjust it, but considering some of those were pretty low-probability events (Trump Jr. enthusiastically responding to an email from people purporting to be Russian agents offering dirt on Clinton?), I think that the upwards adjustment from low-probability events having occurred has got to be reasonably material.

    As far as the political fallout, Trump has certainly had a bad couple weeks, first with Cohen and Manafort, then with the NAFTA deal imploding after the Toronto Star leaked off-the-record remarks of his that he had no intention to offer concessions to Canada and was only not publicly saying that to not "insult" them, and then the revelations in the Woodward book. Looking at the 538 approval tracker, he's now at his lowest levels since February, if still a few percentage points above his all-time lows.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
     
    tedtan, JSanta and Randy like this.
  5. Randy

    Randy ROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOU Super Moderator

    Messages:
    20,271
    Likes Received:
    3,212
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    The more the accusations in the Woodward book are substantiated and the more the NYT op-ed sinks in, we're absolutely going to reach new low approval numbers, book it.
     
    tedtan and JSanta like this.
  6. narad

    narad SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    6,351
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2009
    Location:
    Tokyo
    How does stuff like the Woodward stories get substantiated? Of course I loved reading such scathing stuff, but given it comes out in book form, there's so much incentive to embellish the truth. Will people just go around and ask others mentioned in the story to verify?
     
  7. Randy

    Randy ROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOU Super Moderator

    Messages:
    20,271
    Likes Received:
    3,212
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Basically. The Dowd story is the one that got the most attention, not just from how outlandish it is but also how it names names and very specific events. Wolf's book was damning but only went so far because nobody was willing to attach their name to the more absurd stories in there but Woodward's work seems more thoroughly vetted, his history makes him more trusted and we're also reaching a tipping point (as seen in the NYT op-ed, along with the Dowd story, along with the Magahn story, along with Cohen's cooperation) where it's more likely you'll see the rats jumping off the ship and not afraid to offer their stories and their names in plea for leniency.
     
    tedtan, JSanta and narad like this.
  8. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

    Messages:
    6,520
    Likes Received:
    1,055
    Joined:
    May 23, 2009
    Location:
    Formerly from Cucaramacatacatirimilcote...
    It's notable that four books and the NYT op-ed all agree on Trump's behavior.

    It's also notable that Trump addressed the act of submitting that op-ed with the word "treason," which is punishable by death.

    Trump et al already got spanked when they started claiming Omarosa was lying, leading to Omarosa actually playing tapes which proved Trump et al were lying. Woodward has even more credibility than Omarosa.
     
    synrgy, Randy and JSanta like this.
  9. Randy

    Randy ROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOU Super Moderator

    Messages:
    20,271
    Likes Received:
    3,212
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    That's another thing that stood out about the Woodward book and the NYT op-ed.

    One of the charges in the Wolf book was about his cabinet regularly having conversations about removing him via the 25th Amendment, to the point they started referencing it in shorthand like "oh, he's acting a little 25th today" but Wolf had no credibility and there was no evidence of dissent from within besides a small handful of leaks that seemingly got plugged.

    The three together paint a picture of a cabinet that's completely aware of Trump's behavior and actively working to curtail it. It's worth noting that these are people voicing a fundamental distrust of the guy, and these are people hand picked by him, paid by him (well, tax payers but he's their boss), that work with him everyday and know a lot more than we do about what the guy say, does and thinks. If that's the reaction they have to him, I can only imagine the things they see.
     
  10. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    27,427
    Likes Received:
    2,821
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    Woodford is also known to be very thorough about documenting claims and interviews with taped conversations. It's conceivable that he could choose to release a few recordings that substantiate specific points that Trump is denying.

    Meanwhile, I'd be curious if someone with a law background could weigh in on whether this moves the needle any on Kavanaugh:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/06/...tion=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

    At a minimum, it seems like this significantly bolsters the argument that many emails were held back for political, and not security, reasons.
     
    vilk likes this.
  11. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    27,427
    Likes Received:
    2,821
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    This guy's a fucking idiot.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

    Markets gapped down sharply on the news. This is after the entire US business community spent the last couple weeks lobbying him not to move ahead with the first $200B, and when asked about it (the public comment period ended yesterday), he decided to drop that bombshell.
     
  12. Randy

    Randy ROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOUROOMFORYOU Super Moderator

    Messages:
    20,271
    Likes Received:
    3,212
    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2006
    Location:
    The Electric City, NY
    Gary Cohn tho :lol:
     
  13. Vyn

    Vyn Not a Sparkly Vampire Contributor

    Messages:
    1,276
    Likes Received:
    1,201
    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2010
    Location:
    Australia
    Any chance you guys can get him impeached or voted out next election? Australia has always been Pro US and it's biting us in the arse this time. Our dollar is getting bent over because of Trump's bullshit with China.
     
  14. narad

    narad SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    6,351
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2009
    Location:
    Tokyo
    Oh maaan. Time to buy another Oni.
     
    synrgy, tedtan, StevenC and 2 others like this.
  15. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    27,427
    Likes Received:
    2,821
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    For now we're focused on the midterms, in just under two months. The Dems have a pretty good chance to retake the house, though the Senate is going to be tough. After that, hopefully the House will be able to contain the damage. Nothing's for certain, though, and the fact Trump is entirely unperturbed by the prospect of further Russian electoral meddling (including a higher probability of actual system penetration this time around, considering we know they successfully breached one system, although made no changes, in 2016) is certainly not encouraging.
     
  16. spudmunkey

    spudmunkey SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    855
    Likes Received:
    515
    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2010
    Location:
    Near San Francisco
    "I'm the president of the united states, and just woke up on the anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks...one of the most poignant moments in American history. How shall I start the day, as my first communiqué to the American people? Hmm...what to do, what to do...

    "Oh! I know! I'll tweet an unattributed quote about how nobody's found any Russian collusion, and then tag my friends over at Fox news. Yes. This is exactly what I should be doing.

    "Oh, OK...I should probably say something about 9/11...but then two more tweets about how I'm being wronged.

    "Hmm...how can I tie my administration to something pelple generally had a positive feeling about surrounding 9/11...hmm...I've got it!"

    "Hmm...maybe I've been tweeting too little about 9/11. I bet people have forgotten all about it. I know, I should remind them"

    "You're welcome for the history lesson, America."
     
    tedtan, StevenC, zappatton2 and 2 others like this.
  17. narad

    narad SS.org Regular

    Messages:
    6,351
    Likes Received:
    3,689
    Joined:
    Feb 15, 2009
    Location:
    Tokyo
    Beware that, when fighting monsters, you yourself do not become a monster... for when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you.


    i.e., damn dude, you nailed it.
     
  18. Andrew Lloyd Webber

    Andrew Lloyd Webber Enjoyed by 4 out of 5

    Messages:
    786
    Likes Received:
    1,251
    Joined:
    Nov 12, 2017
    Someone was typing one-handed. :wub:
     
  19. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    27,427
    Likes Received:
    2,821
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
  20. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

    Messages:
    27,427
    Likes Received:
    2,821
    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2004
    Location:
    Somerville, MA
    So, how has no one mentioned that Manafort took a plea-deal?
     

Share This Page