Is Trump really gonna get there ?

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. flint757

    flint757 SS.org Regular

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    The saddest part about your comments are that you seem oblivious that you are quite biased yourself (who isn't?). I know I'm biased, because unlike most Hillary supporters I actually like my candidate of choice rather than simply thinking she's just better than the potential boogeyman Trump.

    You basically walked away from the conversation in the other thread about presidential candidates after asking for sources, which you were given, of her rather poor record as well and couldn't be bothered.

    ---

    Anyhow, the results were better than expected for Sanders in those states. She performed better in states she WILL NOT WIN in the general. This Super Tuesday BTW is vastly different than 2008 and for one huge reason:

    Super Tuesday 2008 had 23 State Primaries
    Super Tuesday 2016 had 11 State Primaries

    We aren't even at half-time yet so lets stop calling it like the South is some beacon of progressive liberalism (the majority of states who have already voted).

    I'm not implying he's absolutely going to win, but you in fact are making the counter claim and at this point you sound like a very typical Hillary Supporter who's kept their ears a bit too close to CNN.

    ---

    As for the second comment, I don't think you really read mine honestly. I said when you put any roadblock on voting at all people can't be bothered and that many voters are apathetic. That includes registration, time of day, method of voting, having to wait in line, taking off work, requiring party affiliations, having transportation to get to a voting station, and more importantly feeling like you have a reason to vote in the first place. Early voting is, but only one solution and it isn't that great considering it's still strictly during business hours and is only more complicated if you happen to not live near where you work, making you out of district for the most easily accessibly voting stations. During primaries many states also require you be registered for their party which excludes a huge chunk of our population that do not directly identify with either party, even if they may vote for them in the generals due to lack of other choices.

    The world you live in though seems so black and white. We can improve the mechanism of voting while also removing peoples apathy towards the system, but indeed levels of apathetic voters will go unchanged if Hillary is the nomination since she is the epitome of status quo.
     
  2. Aymara

    Aymara SS.org Regular

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    Why is Hillary so popular? Might people think, that Bill will help her as some kind of unofficial co-president?

    Just a thought.
     
  3. vansinn

    vansinn ShredNeck into Beck

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    My bet is that Hillery has been pre-selected by everyone 'in the know' long ago, but, she's know for quite a hawkish policy, they need to present an even worse picture in order to finally make the turnaround at election time, and have the voters swing around.

    As such Trump plays much the same role as 'more sables and horses' did in the Bombama V2 campaign, where, in the end, Bombama did win the election - and launched even more wars afterwards.
    The election shootout on TV was a pure bread joke, complete with much huggin'n'almost-kissin', but no real topics up for debate - all while Jill Stein was arrested by the NY Police and held for hours, so she couldn't disturb the show. Can anyone say banana republic - and we see this elsewhere too, just check the politics in my country (DK), though not quite as bad [yet].

    Hell yeah! "Changes you can believe in!" - ya bet'cha.. "Yes we can!" - who can what? :spock:
     
  4. oc616

    oc616 Control Deck Wins

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    At first I found Trump hilarious. It was entertaining to observe this clear con-artist fail at conning me into believing he cared or knew much about any of the topics he was addressed with. But now it's getting sad. Sad to see how many people believe he is genuine.

    There was an event to which he was invited to speak for $250,000. After all the advertising that had been done to pull people to this event, the day before he says "I'm not coming unless you give me a million." Do you think they stopped and cancelled the whole ordeal, deciding to sue Trump or whatever legal actions they were able to? No. Because he waited until the DAY that their big event was going to place, knowing how important this was to them and exploiting it. What makes his supporters think that won't be the first thing he does once he's won?
     
  5. Jaxcharvel

    Jaxcharvel SS.org Regular

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    On a side note, Donald Trump looks like an older, fatter Dave Mustaine with less cool hair.
     
  6. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    You're right. I couldn't be bothered. I don't have any personal loyalty to Hillary Clinton - I honestly don't understand the cult of personality around politicians, or most other public figures - and I have neither the time nor the inclination to wade through the Why I Hate Hillary Reading List you posted. It was a mistake to engage you and Randy on that issue, but it's not one I have to keep making.

    So what? That has no bearing at all on whether she'll win the nomination, which was the point under discussion.

    As I said, I support voting reform, and I support it *in spite of* the fact that I think it will have relatively modest effects on voter turnout. Improving access to the polls is the right thing to do. It just can't be the *only* thing we do.
     
  7. will_shred

    will_shred not that good.

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    I think it really just comes down to name recognition and voter turnout. Hillary won in states with very low caucus turnout, Bernie one in states where the turnout was much higher. Almost every American knows who Hillary Clinton is and at least knows a little bit about her record, when Sanders was virtually unknown until he started his presidential campaign. Sanders has also never been a part of either party until his election bid, he has served Vermont as an independent from day 1. If you don't play ball with the party machine its very difficult to get your name out there. It's honestly amazing that Sanders has made it as far as he has.


    Side note, if Sanders loses the nomination, or gets the nomination and loses the general election, I think it might actually give a huge boost to the progressive movements that back him by adding fuel to their already raging fire. Or if the democrats just lose the general election and we have president Trump, I think it will cause a lot of people to seek alternative outlets for their activism outside the two party system, which is arguably what we really need in this country. No matter what happens, we are on the verge of a radical shift in the way our political system works.
     
  8. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    Since I've been seeing this statement a lot, a caveat: claims of "low" turnout on the Democratic side have been comparing turnout to 2008, in which Democratic primary turnout broke records in approximately 80% of the states. Simple regression to the mean suggests that 2016 primary turnout would probably be lower. When you add a couple more data points, 2016 doesn't actually look so bad:

    IA turnout was a full 50% higher than 2004.
    NH turnout was still down from 2004, when turnout was only slightly lower than in 2008, but 2016 turnout is still 66% higher than 2000.
    AL turnout was nearly double 2004's, and about a third higher than 2000.
    GA turnout was 20% higher than 2004, and more than double 2000's.
    MA turnout was double 2004's and more than that compared to 2000.
    MN turnout is slightly up compared even to 2008, but it's more than *triple* 2004's numbers.
    OK is up 10% against 2004, and well over double the 2000 turnout.
    TX in 2016 is about half what it was in 2008, but it's 70% higher than 2004, and about double 2000's turnout.
    VT is down about 13% from 2008, but about 50% higher than 2004 and well over double 2000.

    (Those interested in checking my work can get the raw data from Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections)
     
  9. asher

    asher So Did We

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    538:

     
  10. Hollowway

    Hollowway Extended Ranger

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    Anyone know why Hillary is so popular? In my eyes she just says whatever she needs to to whomever she needs to in order to look good. Everything I can find on her shows she doesn't change her views based on the big picture, but only on what she can gain from it. I can't find the same info about Sanders, or most of the Republican candidates (except Trump, and I'm not sure he actually has any strict policies he's vacillated on). I'm just surprised that soooo many people are pro-Hillary, when it seems that she's less concerned with what needs to happen, and more concerned with what she can get. So I'm in this weird position of liking Sanders and a few of the Republicans, but not Hillary. And it seems weird that I'm odd man out on that.
     
  11. Aymara

    Aymara SS.org Regular

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    A further question from a foreigner:

    The downsides of only two parties have been mentioned several times. Which leads to to the question, why no third party gets founded? Isn't that possible for whatever reason?

    In Germany the situation is similar and different at the same time. We have two major parties and several smaller parties. As soon as they get 5% of the votes, they enter the parliament. And nearly everytime a major party built a coalition with a smaller party in the past to form the government. Currently we have an exception to this rule ... a so called big coalition, which consists of the two major parties.

    Maybe it's time that the US looks over the big pond (as we say in Germany) and get inspired by Europe?
     
  12. chopeth

    chopeth SS.org Regular

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    I hope they don't, our refugee politics are a shame (just to name one) and they're showing what we really are
     
  13. Aymara

    Aymara SS.org Regular

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    Well, there are more topics, than immigration politics. I guess the US can e.g. learn a lot from Germany, when it comes to health care, environmental policy, our "political party concept", etc..

    Not that I want to say, that we make it better ... our politics definitely deserve a lot of critique ... but it can be an inspiration for a new and hopefully better future.

    My idea is not to copy blindly what other countries do, but to get inspired by them.

    Compare it to music ... usually it's boring to just copy the style of other bands, but it can be very creative to get inspired by what others to ... to develop your own style further.

    Do you know, what I mean?
     
  14. flint757

    flint757 SS.org Regular

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    The US system is too convoluted to have a flourishing 3rd party system. We'd need to get rid of the electoral college, change all states to popular voting for all elections, turn our first-to-pass-the-post voting system to a runoff system, remove winner-take-all and this would have to happen at all levels of government in all states and territories to work. Each state has its own constitution, as well as the federal constitution, and amendments would have to be written to address this for every single state, as well as the federal level. Passing amendments is deliberately difficult in the US and states like my home state, Texas, have zero incentive to make these changes as it hurts the party in power's political standing. Even if all of that were to happen gerrymandering in many states is so horrible that it could still lead to a concentration of party power. The whole system is ....ed.

    It's a large part of why many people are becoming anti-establishment on both sides of the aisle. At the state and federal level politicians have no incentive to fix campaign financing, to fix salaries, to fix the voting system, or to even motivate voters at all as the system currently benefits those already in charge.
     
  15. Aymara

    Aymara SS.org Regular

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    We'll it was to be expected, that it won't be easy ;) But I bet, it's not impossible.
     
  16. flint757

    flint757 SS.org Regular

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    I'd certainly like to think not, but it's one of those things that has to have extremely strong support and then it'll happen gradually over a decade or so, if at all. Progress in the US is mind numbingly slow unless the courts get involved.
     
  17. Aymara

    Aymara SS.org Regular

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    I think, it's your state concept, that is the main "progress brake" ... the single state has too much power. In Germany we also have a state concept, but the country as a whole has always more power than the single state.

    That's the reason, why important law is always equal in every country. In Germany it's impossible to escape the law after committing a bad crime just by moving over to a different state.

    PS: It's out of question, that it will be hard to implement a multiple party system and that it will take several years. But imagine some popular VIPs would found a new party and fight for their right all over the US. For sure this will require a marketing campaign and a huge budget. But I think, the fact that people begin discussing such topics, might be the first step into that direction. It needs visionaries in the first step willing to fight for new ideas.
     
  18. chopeth

    chopeth SS.org Regular

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    I know what you mean, but I'm sick of Europe giving lessons on morality and good practice. The problem with the refugees exile is such a big thing the others you mention are nothing but insignificant boasts of an pretended advanced culture. The moral decadence of Europe is a fact and the new ascension of right-wing extremist parties supported by people is just an example of how wrong we are in almost everything. We have a Donald Trump in most countries here in Europe so I don't think we have the right to provide advice to anyone, even to those crazy yankees. That's my point.
     
  19. Aymara

    Aymara SS.org Regular

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    There's a lot going wrong in Europe, that's out of question. As I said before ... I don't think, that what we do is better, but it can be an inspiration (!) to find new better ways.

    And the current refugee problem was made / self-inflicted by the first world, that mainly means, Europe, the US and Russia. The first world didn't care for Syria ... there's no oil or something like it was the case with Iraq and Libya.

    Now Europe has to fight with the consequences for geographical reasons ... it's easier for the refugees to reach Europe, than the US for example.

    PS: And the behaviour of the Arabic nations in this crisis doesn't need to be commented :(

    PPS: But this refugee discussion is pretty off-topic here, right?
     
  20. Thrashman

    Thrashman Got Groove?

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    This is exactly why people like Trump get spotlight.

    I, myself, firmly believe that you shouldn't vote at all if you don't have a defendable pinion and knowledge about what you are voting on/for.
    Otherwise we'll keep getting all of these " I vote for Trump cuz he is rich"-reasonings which are not really reasons to vote at all, for example, and do not in any way represent anyone's honeest opinion in a way that matters.
     

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