Is Trump really gonna get there ?

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. Randy

    Randy Ooh, Degrasse Tyson-son Super Moderator

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    Different =/= Better

    A plate of spaghetti is different than a plate of rigatoni.

    A plate of broken glass is also different than a plate of rigatoni.

    Blindly doing things just because they're different is reactive, not proactive. It's also very dangerous and yields VERY wide ranging (and typically bad) results.
     
  2. TheStig1214

    TheStig1214 Mr. Tophat Jones

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    :lol:
     
  3. asher

    asher So Did We

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    OT, but it just made me think of this and now I'm loling:

    [​IMG]
     
  4. TheStig1214

    TheStig1214 Mr. Tophat Jones

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    "Bag, rip. Wine, smash. Drink it up, avoid the glass."

    Infinite words of wisdom from David McWane.
     
  5. flint757

    flint757 SS.org Regular

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    Well, considering the race has actually been pretty close, yet everyone is under the impression she's wiping the floor with him, I'd say no. It's not illegal and quite normal, but lets not pretend that they aren't playing on low info voters biggest weakness, lack of in-depth knowledge and research. Their goal is pretty much what people have been saying with Trump, to get more people voting because 'it's the inevitable choice'. If that's true our choices are between someone who presents himself as a loon and a crook, but hey it's 'democratic'.

    Slight derail, a two party system is inherently not Democratic. Couple that with the electoral college, winner-take-all, gerrymandering, most elections not being run-off votes, and only two platforms ever being used as a blanket to smother everyone who in fact isn't Republican or Democrat and we have a ridiculously jacked up undemocratic system. We need a system where votes literally divide representation between multiple parties and we need a system where you vote on a scale, not for one individual that was predetermined by a rather small number of people in our country.

    Well, so far the only states she outright won are states that are going to vote for Trump in the general election, and they had an incredibly low turnout compared to 2008. :shrug:

    I'd argue they, include my own state, do a poor job of actually representing the liberal community at large.

    He was saying that we got what we could pass. Election reform has the potential to clean out at least some of the corruption making alternatives to the ideas we're being told we want to actually pass as well. Whether it succeeds remain to be seen, but Hillary is not in a position to actually do anything about it, considering she actively participates in what is in fact wrong with our elections. She'd come across like a gigantic hypocrite.

    Yes, but a two party system, a do nothing congress, lack of proper representation, and most states for national elections being winner-take-all doesn't exactly give ANYONE motivation. I vote every single year at all levels of government, but I'm always doing so as a disheartened citizen who knows how little my vote where I live matters. It's not surprising many choose the more pessimistic route of simply not voting in that system. Year after year only ~7 states even matter for the presidential race. Making the means to vote better doesn't make it better for many if it doesn't aid in better representation.
     
  6. Aymara

    Aymara SS.org Regular

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    What about old or ill people, who aren't mobile enough? That's why we Germans are able to vote by snail mail on demand.

    But that doesn't help with lack of interest, which also exists here ... not to forget people, who think, they can set a kind of sign and show their dissatisfaction by not voting.
     
  7. wannabguitarist

    wannabguitarist Contributor

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    I don't think it's 50 statewide (of course it isn't, that would make sense), but you can do that here too :yesway:
     
  8. flint757

    flint757 SS.org Regular

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    It's not that there aren't options, but more that people are so apathetic towards our political system that out of those who 'might' vote won't when even the smallest roadblock is placed in front of them. Then there's also the timing of votes and that right-to-work states can fire you for any reason making it far harder to take off work even though you are legally allowed to for elections (they'll just find another reason to let you go).

    The trick to getting more people to vote is to make it stupid easy for people to do so. It's either that or actually convince people that they have something worth voting for, and many don't seem to think so. I think the prior might just be easier to achieve personally.
     
  9. CapnForsaggio

    CapnForsaggio Cap'n (general)

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    Your assumption is that MORE voters = better voting.

    People who care only about themselves, don't vote for public office.... You might not like HOW they vote if you force them to.

    Be careful what you wish for. Just wait until the Hispanic population starts to vote with their faith on issues like abortion. The DNC is in for a rude awakening.
     
  10. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    OK, stop right there. Put aside your candidate bias and look at the d@mn math: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/. Clinton has a 200-delegate lead in pledged delegates. There are no winner-take-all states, or even winner-take-most states, in the Democratic primaries where a narrow win in a key state can completely upend the race; all states assign delegates proportionally. Clinton is strong in high-population (and therefore high-delegate-count) states that have yet to vote; Sanders is strong in low-population states. Narrow wins in high-population states net more delegates than blowouts in low-population states. Barring a complete reversal in the voting patterns we've seen so far - not impossible, but you must admit it's highly unlikely - Clinton is going to be the nominee. Sanders supporters are in *exactly* the same place now that Clinton supporters were in 2008 after Obama's Super Tuesday wins: trying to argue against the math.
     
  11. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    Did you read my post? The data do not support the idea that extended voting periods, etc. make a large difference in turnout. If you want a massive change in American voter participation, you have to change the culture, not the mechanism.
     
  12. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    Lacking any other information, a good first approximation is that the preferences of the nonvoting population would mirror those of the voting population: that is to say, ~40-45% consistent support for each of the two major parties, and the rest shifting depending on individual candidates, issues, etc. If the nonvoting population demonstrates specific demographic biases that tend to be predictive of voting behavior (for example, race, especially for nonwhite voters), then we could make a more accurate prediction, but we'd need the data.
     
  13. MaxOfMetal

    MaxOfMetal Likes trem wankery. Super Moderator

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    Well, wouldn't more people voting give us a better idea of what the population as a whole wants? Isn't that the point?

    Honestly, I don't care who you vote for as long as you vote.

    Of course I want "my guy" to win, or rather not "that guy", but I don't deserve any more of a say than any other tax paying citizen.
     
  14. mongey

    mongey SS.org Regular

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    seems voting turnout is a big part of how this plays out

    here we have mandatory voting . you go and get your name checked off and they will fine you if you don't vote


    I don't always feel that invested in our political process but I do pay attention at election time as i know I have to vote , I'd rather make some kind of informed decision then go in a waste my time anyway
     
  15. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    ...and the data exist:

    The Party of Nonvoters | Pew Research Center
    The Policy Ramifications of Increasing Voter Turnout - The Atlantic
    Nonvoters: Who They Are, What They Think | Pew Research Center


    Nonvoters in the US are (as a group) less white, less wealthy, less educated, and less religious. Their views on social issues (gay marriage, abortion, possibly others) mirror the voting population, but they're more in favor of government intervention to aid poor people and reduce inequality.
     
  16. RUSH_Of_Excitement

    RUSH_Of_Excitement SS.org Regular

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    Guys, he is openly admitting that he would force the military to commit war crimes against women and children... Is this our next Commander in Chief? Political policies aside, this is not ok anymore!
     
  17. Grindspine

    Grindspine likes pointy things

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    If we fine companies that hire illegal workers, will they:
    a) help to get their workers legally documented
    b) hire legal residents instead
    c) move operations overseas to keep labor costs low?
     
  18. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    A lot of those businesses can't move operations overseas. You're not moving large portions of US agriculture overseas, for example, and it's nonsensical to even ask the question of service industries like hotels and restaurants.
     
  19. wannabguitarist

    wannabguitarist Contributor

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    Anyone else feel like Trump got hammered in the last debate? Too late to turn the tide but the other candidates had fairly good showings comparatively.

    A) Maybe, and if they do that's great.
    B) This would be ideal
    C) Might happen in some case but I think it's highly unlikely for the reasons celticelk noted.

    All three are better alternatives to using illegal labor in my eyes.
     
  20. jwade

    jwade Doooooooooom

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    I don't know a lot about how your political system works, but it really doesn't seem like there are any 'good' options for you guys. Hillary is a terrifying individual that seems likely to start WWIII, Trump says a hell of a lot without ever answering anything conclusively (aside from 'no immigrants, y'all'), and that Cruz guy seems like a psycho used car salesman. Sanders seems to be the only one in the race that appears to be genuinely trying to make changes, but from up here, it looks like it would be a miracle if Hillary wasn't chosen. I've heard people saying things like 'we had the first black president, let's have the first female president! america!' as if that's the only thing worth paying attention to. Kind of scary.
     

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