Is Trump really gonna get there ?

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

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  1. synrgy

    synrgy Ya ya ya I am Lorde

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    I mean, I'm busy praying that having passed the bill, without even reading the damn thing, will ensure that they're all defeated in 2018 no matter what happens during the interim.

    But hope/prayer is all I've got, and I'm not a True Believer. At this point, I know it to be fact that GOP reps could literally pull off their human masks to reveal lizard heads underneath, and declare war upon the human race, and they still wouldn't lose any support from their base. The tribalism is that deep.
     
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  2. zappatton2

    zappatton2 SS.org Regular

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    Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.
     
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  3. wankerness

    wankerness SS.org Regular

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    Yep, exactly. A video could come out tomorrow of Trump sticking a baby in the microwave and hitting start, and there's not any chance that he'd be impeached until (unless) there's 60 democrats in the senate. There's not a shred of integrity in there.
     
  4. MFB

    MFB ExBendable

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    Ugh, you would!

    Everyone knows Kang cares about his voters, unlike Kodos and his group
     
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  5. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    This weekend, Trump started calling the FBI names again, doubled down on claims that no one in his campaign did anything wrong, and also endorsed child molester, racist, and gay-hater Roy Moore for congress. He said that we need people like Moore in congress to fight the democrats.

    It's despicable. Moore is a horrible human being. His platform is horrible. His politics are horrible. The accusations against him are horrible. Okay. So Trump, in his extreme double-standard calls for Moore to be elected, yet is calling for others accused of sexual misconduct (of lesser extent than child molestation) to be fired, if they are democrat. Basically, if you are on the same side of the fence as Trump, and you were accused of something, you are innocent. If you disagree with Trump, and you were accused of something, you are guilty. No regard for any investigation to see if the person is guilty or not, no, why would we need that? Agree and you are pardoned; get in Trump's way, and you are fired. What a disgusting pile of bullshit.

    For police, they are doing a great job as long as they are busy shooting innocent Australian soccer moms and planting guns on black folks they murdered, but if they are investigating Trump (that is to say "doing their jobs"), then those same cops are the scum of the earth, according to the president's public tweets.

    I sure hope justice is swift and especially ironic for Trump. :mad:
     
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  6. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    So, I'm still trying to parse the last minute changes to the tax bill, and I guess I have a couple initial thoughts.

    1) It's POSSIBLE the final bill coming out of conference won't be awful. The major surprise last-minute change to the bill was the re-inclusion of a modified personal and corporate AMT, this time indexed to inflation (IMO, as it should have been from the start). That means the Senate bill, which incorporates a modified AMT and doubles the limit but does not eliminate the estate tax, is a fair amount less regressive than the House bill. On the other hand, it does incorporate an ACA mandate repeal, which (IMO) is the single most disasterous part of the Senate legislation (though, the way it treats tuition reimbursement/scolarship from a taxation standpoint is a close runner up - aren't we supposed to be encouraging higher ed, not actively discouraging it?). It's possible to picture a final bill that preserves the Senate estate tax and AMT provisions, does away with the ACA mandate repeal to bring it in line with the house, and takes Trump's tossed off offer to up the corporate rate a little, say to 22%, to pay for this as well as restore some tax breaks designed to help the working poor and middle class. I'm not saying it's LIKELY, just that it's possible.
    2) Looking at how everything went down, the one thing that gives me a bit of hope that this isn't going to go anywhere is it's hard to look at the bill and the debate and see it as anything other than an attempt to get something to committee. The GOP presumably learned their lesson on the ACA here. It wasn't published until the 21st in the Senate, the final draft was only released a couple hours before the vote, there are some clear errors in the way it's written (the Senate bill accidentally ended the deductibility of R&D expenses, which the Brookings Institute is pretty sure was by mistake), you have things like McCain and Collins voting for the tax bill with an ACA mandate repeal after being instrtumental in voting down the very similar "skinny repeal" several months ago, AMT is back in which was a long-running GOP target for elimination, at literally the 11th hour of debate... I have to think the Senate Republicans only passed this so they'd have a chance to hammer it out a bit further in committee with the House, and when it comes back for a second vote, there's going to be a much higher level of scrutiny. In fact, looked at in that way, some of the unexpected backtracks - R&D expensing, AMT - may actually be "features" in that it makes it extremely unlikely the House will be able to take up and successfully pass the Senate bill, meaning there's going to be an almost-guaranteed third round of voting.

    More to come as this thing evolves.
     
  7. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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  8. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

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    I was talking to a non-American friend about what seems to be resolved so far, and what information is still forthcoming, in the investigation of collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. Since there hasn't been anything posted in this topic for a while, I'm going to post a bit of it here.

    First off, Mueller has been very intelligent regarding not charging people more than a minimum amount to gain their cooperation. This allows for state attorneys general to bring state charges which would not be pardonable using Trump's federal pardoning power, neutralizing Trump's ability to obstruct justice by removing consequences.

    Manafort, Gates and Papadopolous are seemingly settled questions, as is Flynn. Even though Mueller hasn't charged them deeply, they are on the hook, with plenty to choose from for state convictions.

    Weirdly enough, one of the FBI source incidents buttressing the FBI investigation of Trump-Russia collusion was being informed by Australian diplomats in Europe that Papadopolous, while drunk/tipsy, had bragged about Russia having hacked Clinton campaign emails. Since it wasn't anything which had been reported in the news, the Australians were concerned that a Trump staffer would have knowledge of Russian hacking, and reported the incident to the FBI.

    With information derived from those people, Mueller then held back on releasing it while questioning Jared Kushner. Kushner likely lied when questioned, which means Kushner is caught.

    By his own admission, Don Jr. admitted to meeting with Russian representatives with the aim of colluding with Russia to gain illegally gained information regarding Clinton. Even if someone commits a crime unsuccessfully, like collusion or bank robbery, the attempt is still illegal.

    Interestingly enough, there might be evidence that Don Jr. took the Russians around to meet Daddy, and that Ivanka also met them. Ivanka didn't list such a meeting on her contacts form, so that may be a problem for her.

    There is a lot of evidence that Trump businesses gained their working capital from illegal Russian money laundering. Even the Trump camp kept bragging about Russians being the main source of their funds. Now it turns out that Mueller has been issuing subpoenas for banking records, and it's likely that he also has Trump's tax returns.

    The Trump campaign hired Cambridge Analytics, and worked with the RNC to place online ads. It is now being investigated by Mueller whether the Trump campaign was working with Russia in the ad campaigns, and if the Trump campaign was illegally sharing voter information with Russia to allow Russian ads to be targeted to certain American demographics.

    There is now contemporaneous proof, in written memos by those Comey told, that Trump pressured Comey to drop the investigation. Even though Trump's assertions that he never did so already faced the burden of Trump's history of proven dishonesty, a contemporaneous memo from a trained FBI agent removes this aspect from the realm of a "he said, he said" situation.

    As Pence was likely around for discussion of how to deal with the public revelation of the trmp Tower meeting with the Russians, and how to conceal it, Pence is not off the hook. As he is a lawyer, he's actually held to a higher standard, so it will be interesting to see where that goes.

    Most recently, Trump has threatened a lawsuit over the recent book. Oddly enough, Gorka confirmed that he had been instructed to cooperate with author Wolff, and had met Wolff in Priebus' West Wing office while Wolff was waiting for Steve Bannon. Gorka had only intended to talk about how untrustworthy Wolff is, but only served to prove Trump a liar yet again, this time regarding Trump's claims that Wolff hadn't had access to the White House.

    On a strange related note, Trump sexual assault accuser Summer Zervos got an unintended boost from Trump's threat of a lawsuit over the book because Trump had previously argued that he didn't have time for a lawsuit as president. Zervos is also helped by a victorious legal argument made by Kellyanne Conway's husband, that a sitting president (Clinton at the time) could be sued for sexual behavior while in office.

    Also recently, Republican leaders in Congress turned out to be lying in their characterization of testimony from Fusion GPS, which was legally released to the public by Feinstein after the fusion GPS founders begged for the truth to be released to disprove Republican lies. It's unfortunate that Republicans are playing dishonest politics purely for the goal of derailing a legitimate investigation of a foreign government's interference in a US election, as this removes actual patriotism as a factual talking point.

    Anyway, it turns out that dossier author Steele was so concerned about what he thought was a likely "crime in progress" that he contacted the FBI with the information he was gathering... only to learn that they already had a source within the campaign for that. I have to assemble a timeline, but I think it's unlikely to have been Papadopolous at that point, which means there is likely another undiscovered source for the information.

    And now, Trump's lawyers are reportedly attempting to come to an agreement with Mueller regarding Trump testifying.

    ----

    At this point, I do believe the one consistent end point pursued by the Russians during the campaign was an end to economic sanctions. As such sanctions were hurting Russian gangsters, including Putin cronies, this makes sense, and having the sanctions strengthened by Congress and taken out of the Trump White House's hands was probably a great blow against Trump and Putin.

    I don't know how long things will take from here, but I don't think they will end well for Donald Trump's presidency.

    I'm now looking forward to sniping remarks from those simple-minded enough to assume the grownups here are as easily distracted as the simple. Bonus points for brevity, inability to address the mass of proven facts supporting collusion and obstruction, and both-siderism with no actual proof of both sides.... *laugh*

    Have at it!
     
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  9. vilk

    vilk Very Regular

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    Thanks dude! Would you mind if I steal that and paste it on a website where it will rustle some massive jimmies?
     
  10. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

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    You do not have my permission. State it in your own words instead.

    Remember to add Trump's payout through his attorney Cohen to the pornstar, to avoid disclosure of his affair and infidelity to Melania the year after their marriage, to your litany, to irk the evangelicals who keep talking about Trump being the will of their god....

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-...yment-for-adult-film-stars-silence-1515787678
     
  11. thraxil

    thraxil cylon

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    Also worth mentioning that Mueller's team has hired (back in November but it was only recently made public) a prosecutor with experience handling cyber crime cases: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...85626af34ef_story.html?utm_term=.9ba2f51c259f

    So that's a good indicator that they are looking deeply into either or both the DNC email hacks or fishiness with Cambridge Analytics.

    On the pornstar thing, I think it's important to keep in mind that while there's no indication that it was nonconsensual, and Trump's evangelical supporters really don't seem to care how terrible and hypocritical he is, it is still extremely important that he paid hush money to keep it secret. That is the sort of thing that makes him vulnerable to blackmail and puts the security of the country at risk. If he were applying for any level of security clearance and that was discovered, he would be denied.
     
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  12. iamaom

    iamaom SS.org Regular

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    I think the biggest thing to take away from this presidency is not any single person like Trump, but that the ENTIRE republican party banded together and supported a traitor for the sole purpose of getting an agenda that screws over the poor in favor of the rich passed. Not a single GOP senator or representative has the balls to actually stand up against any this. Sure, you have a few grumblers that talk about deficit here and there just loud enough for some voters to hear, but in the end they vote yes on the bills anyways. They don't like the average American being able to have healthcare, they don't care that half the country is a paycheck away from ruin and up to their eyes in debt, they don't care that some parts of the country are on the level of 3rd world nations, they want to rape the environment and leave it for dead in the pursuit of profit, they want to take away rights of anyone who's not a white rich christian conservative, and the fact that 1/3 of the country will still vote for them for the sole purpose of spiting their fellow countrymen is insane.
     
  13. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Yeah, it's useful to periodically stop and take stock of a developing story like this, because it's kind of amazing how much of the progress you can lose siught of as it slowly evoolves. Rereading this, very few of the things you list as "known" rather than allegations or suspicious (for example, the possibility of Trump and Ivanka meeting the diplomats in the Trump Tower meeting) are things that I can really poke holes at - I've seen lots of suspicion but no evidence that Russian money may have been behind Trump for a while, but, for example, things like Gorka being directed to meet with Wolff or Popadoupalous being the original source of FBI concern after the Australians alerted them to his comments, Trump pressuring Comey to drop the investigation into Flynn, or Don Jr. admitting to wanting to have a meeting he believed to be with Russian agents offering incrimidating info against Clinton, are all pretty well settled fact at this point. A few of them are already grounds for criminal charges.

    Interesting point on Kushner's testimony - it could be a horserace between Trump Jr and Kushner, as to who's the next guy to drop.
     
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  14. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    Someone on VPR/NPR at lunch time (just a moment ago) was talking about how people tend to only keep one or two scandals in their minds at a time, and that Trump has far surpassed that limit. Maybe that's why reporting about him calling Haiti a "shithole" or whatever other inconsequential-in-the-grand-scheme stories might be actually giving him a boost in popularity. I think maybe that commentator was onto something. There are not a lot of Trump supporters in Vermont, but there must be more in my area than the rest of Vermont, and people here are quite visibly and audibly rolling their eyes and sighing at the story. Meanwhile, this is also the same guy who has all but abolished the EPA, colluded with Russia, and is making some of the objectively worst long term economic decisions in our nation's history, not to mention his haphazard dealings with North Korea and the Middle East. While I would much prefer a president who doesn't refer to other nations as "shitholes," I really don't care about that story under the circumstances.

    As it is looking at the moment, there may be some criminal plots at play in the 2016 election from both major candidates' campaigns. I think that once the dust settles from the investigation, which will likely be months from now, we need to sit down as a nation and have an intelligent discussion about what the hell happened and how to possibly remove the pathways that allowed that to happen at this level.
     
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  15. narad

    narad SS.org Regular

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    Post -> Google translate English-to-German -> Google translate German-to-English -> post.
     
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  16. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    Or, better yet,

    After -> Google Translate English - German -> Google Translate German - English -> After.
     
  17. vilk

    vilk Very Regular

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  18. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

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    Just to note... Bannon refused to answer when questioned under a congressional subpoena, and has also been subpoenaed by Mueller's grand jury.
     
  19. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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  20. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    I smell a trap.

    The Park Service has emerged as the vanguard of the resistance to the Trump administration, and have been vocal and unabashed in their criticism. Not only does it seem unlikely to me that they would suddenly just wave a wight flag and resign, I think it's also a little odd that it wasn't unanimous, but three remained. If I were a betting man, I would wager that the Trump administration is unable to do something without a majority vote of the advisory board, and furthermore the fact three members continue to serve on the board is enough to stop Trump from formally dissolving it or stacking it with anti-park members.

    This is literally just a hunch, but I would be shocked if there wasn't some end game to this move that Trump won't like.
     
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