Is Trump really gonna get there ?

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    At this point I think the Steele Dossier is a bigger deal to the right than it is to the left, and they seem to care more about it being false than we do about it being true (probably because there's enough other evidence of wrongdoing to sate our bloodlust at this point). So, with that in mind, I post this mostly to prod our Trumpster bretheren than anything else...

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...d-715pm:homepage/story&utm_term=.7c841311688b

    While we still don't have evidence that Trump actually cavorted with Russian prostitutes while in Moscow in 2013, Trump's chief of private security testified under oath that at the end of a meeting on that trip, a man approached them offering to have five women sent up to his room. Schiller himself rejected the offer, but Trump was aware of it and it's not impossible it was made privately again later.
     
  2. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

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    The fact that Trump's bodyguard verified that Trump was approached in 2013, verifying at least the date of the alleged Steele Dossier hotel encounter, is hilarious.

    Again, why do Republicans keep verifying details of a document they keep claiming is false?
     
  3. Unleash The Fury

    Unleash The Fury SS.org Regular

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    Do people really care that much.............. like truly, whole heartedly, actually, without a shadow of a doubt care if Trump had 5 prostitutes or not years ago? Lol
     
  4. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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  5. Unleash The Fury

    Unleash The Fury SS.org Regular

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    Thats actually very funny. Im using this joke at work as we speak
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2017
  6. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

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    Do citizens of a participatory democracy actually care if the president is beholden to a foreign country through blackmail? Yes.

    It's a bit shocking you didn't have the awareness to think that through.
     
    vilk and StevenC like this.
  7. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    It's more in line with what Explorer is saying, IMO.

    What may or may not have happened between Donald Trump and five consenting Russian women, in exchange for money, in 2013, is between the Donald, Melania, and the women, so long as no laws were broken. If he gets off on that, whatever.

    Where it starts to become concerning is:

    1) when it's alleged that Russian agents may have secretly filmed him with the women, with the intent on using it as blackmail material, and if true then they may have leverage over the President of the United States, which is a huge national security risk.
    2) when Trump vehemently denies the contents of the dossier, which despite all the attention these particular allegations may have gathered, some of the less racy stuff DOES point to direct collusion with an enemy nation during the campaign, and when evidence comes out that at least parts of what he's denying was likely true (we don't know if the women ever made it to him, but we now know for a fact that an offer was made to send women to Trump at around the time that the act was alleged to have happened), then you start to wonder if maybe some of the other allegations are true.

    So, bigger picture, it doesn't matter hugely that Trump paid a Russian prostitute to piss all over him in a hotel bed he believed the Obamas had once slept in. What DOES matter, though, is that if true it's clearly something he'd be embarrassed to have the video of to leak, so if the Russians DO have video evidence of this, which the Steele dossier states they claimed they did, then he'd potentially agree to do quite a lot to stop that from surfacing. That's a risk. What's also a risk is if THIS particular allegation is true, and he's been denying it, then his denials of some of the OTHER allegations in the document, namely that Russian agents provided his campaign with extremely valuable intelligence, are far more likely to be true as well.

    Unfortunately it's the racier stuff that's captured the national imagination, but hey - while we don't know if Trump actually had an orgy in Russia, we now know that someone tried to set one up for him, and Trump isn't a man over-burdened by impulse control, exactly, so that's a little concerning.
     
  8. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

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  9. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Honestly, it's less the content of the communications, than the fact that it happened at all.

    Meanwhile, Sessions "forgot" about the Popadoupalos meeting, yet clearly remembers vetoing the meeting between Trump and Putin. :lol:
     
  10. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Holy shit what a crazy news day. :lol:

    1) Flynn took a plea deal, and agreed to plead guilty to a reduced charge of making false statements and in return charges against his son were dropped and he will testify that Trump directed his contact with Russia. This is such a game changing development that I don't really know what to say, save that all three or four board conservatives calling the Russia investigation "fake news" are going to have to eat some crow - this is an existentially damning development for Trump.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/...ackage-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    2) The Senate is trying to ram through a tax bill today despite being $1 trillion over the budget cap they left, in violation of the Byrd rule. I have NO clue what to expect here - yesterday it was being taken for granted that the Senate was going to pass this (which I didn't buy) right up until the CBO released it's report that economic growth would only generate $400b in new revenue and not the $1.5t they expected to offset the cost of other provisions. Now, they're closer to a deal, but there are so many moving parts right now (Collins is on in return for a return of the SALT exemption, capped at $10k, which adds to the cost, but Corker's "trigger" to raise taxes if revenue targets weren't meat got killed by the Senate parliamentarian and there's no fix in the current version, so I have no idea what's going on there - I assume he's a no vote, but Flake is being reported as a yes which surprises me a little. It's moving too fast to really keep track of, though.
     
  11. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    #1 I'm not surprised by the Flynn news. I think that it's small potatoes compared to what we'll most likely see in 2018.

    #2 The tax bill is possibly the worst mistake since the Patriot Act. I have a feeling it will get hammered through somehow. I think most Americans are against it, but it seems that has little to do with how lawmakers do their jobs anymore. The CBO could say that this bill will cause cancer, and the GOP legislature would still pass it. It's like the atmosphere of it is more an "oh yeah, well, we're in the majority, so ... there" kind of a flair.

    The GOP still needs one vote in the senate to pass it. It'll happen, though, because there are three GOP senators who have not indicated whether they support it or not, and they will. It'll pass by one or maybe two votes. Even if something crazy happens and it ties, Pence will pass it. Many GOP senators have come right out and said that the only reason they want to vote for this bill is because they think they won't be re-elected if they vote against it, which means, to me, that the GOP itself is putting a lot of pressure on lawmakers.
     
  12. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    I'm still not sure how to handicap the odds of it passing, because so much has changed in the day, and I'm not sure if this is the last we've heard from the parliamentarian, either. I'm calling it a tossup, for lack of anything better to go on. Of course, the House either has to vote on the Senate version, or the two bills have to go to committee and a single bill coming out has to pass both branches, so this is by no means a done deal even if it passes.

    Flynn, the bigger news is less the guilty plea, than the fact he's agreed to testify against Trump. Kushner is allegedly the senior campaign official who directed Flynn to contact the Russians, incidentally.
     
  13. MFB

    MFB ExBendable

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    But that's kind of backwards isn't it?

    They'd now be NOT acting in the interests of their constituents by signing the bill which will raise their taxes, just like those who were worried about losing their re-election by taking away the voters healthcare, so therefore they SHOULDN'T be in favor of it.
     
  14. Explorer

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  15. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    I can see why you'd think that. But let's get real for a second. The lawmakers saying stuff like that are from Red States, like Mississippi, Wyoming, Montana, etc. If you want to be a senator in one of those states, you have to be a republican, which means that the republican party must endorse you. If the GOP gets pissed that you didn't hold party line on an issue, then they endorse someone else in the primary, and you run as independent, and your constituents vote for whomever the GOP endorsed, and you lose your job. It's really fucked up, but that's just the way these things work out. So instead, yeah, they are considering pissing off most of their constituents in order to please the party.

    The above is exactly what I've been warning everybody about for years now. The two-party system is better than the one-party system, but it still has the same dangers. Because the political party, the thing that shouldn't have any power, according to our laws, ends up with all of the power, according to the loopholes in our laws, and so all conventional logic works in reverse below the surface-level. Right now the GOP knows that it is in the minority, but it can hold on to the majority only by gerrymandering and by holding it's representatives very tightly in its grasp.
     
  16. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

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    A small timeline which includes Obama's sanctions against Russia, Flynn being directed by the senior presidential transition team official (Kushner) to contact Russia, Flynn's contact with Kislyak, and Trump tweeting praise for Putin the next day for delaying a response to the sanctions in response to Flynn's direct request.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/01/us/politics/flynn-russia-sanctions.html

    It's looking likely that Mueller has enough to indict Trump for being part of the conspiracy against the USA, and of collusion. I can't wait to see how long it takes Fox News commentators to rack up two hours of coverage on the matter.
     
  17. MFB

    MFB ExBendable

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    Ah, yes, that's the part of the races I was forgetting. Without that portion, it'd be fairly black and white as to how it should go down, but then that tends to move that needle egregiously far for one person's favor.
     
  18. thraxil

    thraxil cylon

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    It's also the big money backers (Koch brothers, Mercer, etc.) who really want the tax cuts and can be relied upon to pull their funding and back a primary opponent if they don't vote how they want.

    I do wonder about the motivations of eg, McCain, who is most likely not worrying about reelection. What does he get out of supporting unpopular tax cuts for the wealthy? Does he really buy into the trickle down crap?
     
  19. synrgy

    synrgy Ya ya ya I am Lorde

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  20. thraxil

    thraxil cylon

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    Yeah, I get that on one level. But on a more visceral level, I don't get it. We know that McCain must *hate* Trump on a deep level. We also know that he probably won't be around much longer. So one of the last major acts in his career and life, will be handing a man that he hates his first real legislative victory. He's really OK with that being a notable part of his legacy just so his kids can inherit a little more money, when they're already going to be inheriting more money than a reasonable person can spend in their lifetime?

    To bring things back to Trump, I wonder if passing this tax cut clears the path for republicans to start distancing themselves from him and consider impeaching. Clearly, they had to get that passed to appease their donors, and fighting the President would be counterproductive on that front. But now what do they need him for? As the controversies get larger and closer, they need to be thinking about whether it's time to take him out so they can claim the moral high ground in 2018 instead of getting dragged down with him.
     

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