Is Trump really gonna get there ?

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by mongey, Mar 2, 2016.

  1. tedtan

    tedtan SS.org Regular

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    I suppose that would be the case if you look at it as a single action, but I see it as separate actions. The calculated part is not impulsive, but the implementation could very well be.

    Regardless, I certainly allow that this phenomena could be mere coincidence wherein Trump's impulsiveness occasionally works in his favor, at least within a limited framework.
     
  2. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/08/us/politics/trump-corker.html

    I don't know where this is going, but it seems that this particular congressman has had enough. If more follow him, this could be a mess for the White House. If not, it'll just be a mess for Corker.
     
  3. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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    :lol: That's one way to look at it!
     
  4. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    The private reaction has evidently been a lot of Republican congressmen agree with him; few are willing to stick their necks out publicly to say so. That could change. If it does, I've already indicated I think any tax reform bill is a lognshot, but I'd say the odds of it going through will fall further.

    Seriously, broken record here, but while a lot of things went more or less as I expected after Trump was elected (i.e. - he really did try to do everything he said he would, that a lot of his moderate republican supporters thought was just empty talk), the one thing that was truly a surprise for me is how unbelievably ineffectual the Trump administration has been. It's been just a staggering comedy of errors - the man can't stop shooting himself in the foot.
     
  5. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    He's allegedly challenged his own Secretary of State to an IQ test contest. There seems to be a lot of controversy over what his IQ is. Evidently he uses a vocabulary of 77 words and the grammar equivalent to an average third grader, according to people who have studied his public speeches, yet others contend that he talks that way in order to connect with the American people, whom he sees as third graders with 77 word vocabularies. Either way, I see a problem. :lol:

    @Drew, I am curious as to how you see him as more ineffectual that a typical executive leader. I think we've been over his accomplishments before, which are mostly in progress or not happening, but to be fair, the same went for Obama and Bush, at least by this point in their presidencies. A lot could change in the next three years, if he continues at the pace he's averaged so far.

    Now that he's actively being called out for being a moron by multiple high level sources, I really do think he's about to be put in check, if not checkmate, by his rivals colluding with his supposed allies. Even when Bush got stuck in a room because he couldn't figure out whether to push or pull the door during a televised event, I don't recall a single Republican making fun of him, and when Obama forgot how many states were in the USA during a campaign rally, I don't recall any Democrats calling him names. This seems to me like a new low for the presidency in so many ways, and I don't think that the office will be able to maintain it's level of influence and power as long as Trump is sitting in it.
     
  6. jaxadam

    jaxadam SS.org Regular

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  7. Explorer

    Explorer He seldomly knows...

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    Wasn't there a Howard Stern appearance wherein both Ivanka and Eric, while touting their own intelligence, couldn't figure out what 17 times 6 equalled?

    And then the Moron in Chief kept declaring it was 112?

    Trump is a moron. Corker got it right.
     
  8. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_100_days_of_Barack_Obama's_presidency
    https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/president-bush-100-days-in-the-shadows/

    W. had a fairly unimpressive first 100 days, but Obama had already passed a number of major pieces of legislation within the first 100 days of his term. Trump? Trump has yet to get a major piece of legislation through, amd he has majorities in both chambers of Congress.

    Yeah, it doesn't help that after 8 years of talk about "repeal and replace," congressional Republicans didn't actally have a bill ready to go... But, it's mind-blowing to me that not only did that fail, but of the major initiatives I can think of that Trump campaigned on, the only two I can think of that he has a credible claim to have accomplished is to nominate and seat a conservative justice, and to enact a Muslim ban (albeit on the 3rd attempt, and this one will probably get challenged in court too). No infastructure plan, only cursory details of his tax plan and that's been within the past two weeks, no wall with Mexico and no chance of Mexico paying for it, no "something better than the ACA," no end to the war with ISIS, he still has only made a fraction of the appointments a president is required to, much less had them approved by Congress... Am I forgetting anything?

    The only things he's been able to do are things he can do unilaterally - executive orders (the muslim ban, for one), backing out of the TPP, initiating the renegotiation of NAFTA, ending the DREAM act... but even then he hasn't been very effective; the DREAM act he basically kicked to Congress to fix, which looks like what he's about to do with the Iran nuclear deal, NAFTA negotiations I believe still haven;t begun, and his first two Muslim bans were tossed out by the courts.

    There's also the little matter of the spectacular infighting, the insanely high turnover (Flynn, Bannon, Price, Spicer, Priebus, the Mooch, few otgers I'm forgetting, I'm sure), the fact he's constantly contradicting White House officials' public statements in his tweets... It's a management clusterfuck. Corker's comments about the White House basically being adult daycare these days were entirely on point.
     
  9. synrgy

    synrgy Ya ya ya I am Lorde

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    You know, for his many faults, I never questioned if "his heart was in the right place"; it was more Cheney/Rumsfeld and co. that drew my ire. W seems - in hindsight - more worthy of pity than vilification. It's pretty clear he was mostly a puppet; that public speaking was simultaneously his only purpose, and his Achilles' Heel.

    Which is to say, I don't for a moment believe Drumpf's "heart is in the right place".

    Anyway, I hope Mueller hurries up. Setting aside the laundry list of terrifying legislation coming down the pike*, Drumpf is definitely giving me the willies with all this 'calm before the storm' business..

    *HR 861 - Terminate the Environmental Protection Agency
    HR 610 - Vouchers for Public Education
    HR 899 - Terminate the Department of Education
    HJR 69 - Repeal Rule Protecting Wildlife
    HR 370 - Another attempt to Repeal Affordable Care Act
    HR 354 - Defund Planned Parenthood
    HR 785 - National Right to Work
    HR 83 - Mobilizing Against Sanctuary Cities Bill
    HR 147 - Criminalizing Abortion
    HR 808 - Sanctions against Iran (not super scary at face value, but it sneaks in expansion of Presidential powers)
     
  10. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...lly-sucks-at-math_us_576a4dffe4b065534f484015

    Ok, this is what gets me, because I think we all work with people like this.

    First, I don't really care that Trump can't solve a simple multiplication problem. I mean, it'd be reassuring if he could, but I honestly wouldn't care if he couldn't, as long as the gripes below were mitigated. To be frank, though 17 x 6 is not a difficult problem to solve.

    Second, if you go around bragging how smart you are, you need something, anything, to back that up. If I went around here showing off the score I got on my IQ test, then I should provide a photo of the test results or similar. Trump doesn't have anything to back up his claims that he's the most clever man alive- Nothing. He's the type of dude who would show that shit off to everybody if he had it, so I know he doesn't.

    Third, and most of all, he cannot admit that he is wrong. Not only that, but one step further, he cannot stop himself from insisting that he's correct, even when he's blatantly wrong. For about one minute, one of the other producers keeps explaining how the answer is 102, but Trump insists that it's 112 until someone does it on a calculator, then he simply stops talking and sits there smugly and awkwardly smiling, like he's so sure that it's 112 and that the calculator and the producers are wrong.

    Obama had some problems with some of his goals as well. But where Obama took the approach of trying to convince congress to approve legislation to accomplish his goals, Trump just tried doing everything by executive action, which reached its limitations almost immediately.

    Trump might be horribly misguided, he might be brash and reckless, but one thing I will not say is that he's lazy, because he has been getting a lot of things moving, even if they are not going anywhere but in circles. Lots of instantaneous movement even if the push-pull averages out back where it started. I had a post a few pages back with a sort of survey of his attempted accomplishments, and it was honestly just the tip of the iceberg.

    I did. I cannot forgive the guy who deliberately and knowingly started two wars under false pretenses, understanding that those wars had no justification and no end in sight. Trump might do worse, but Bush is ultimately responsible for 9/11 (the Clinton administration tried to warn him that the danger was teeming on the horizon, and he made the conscious decision to take focus off of it), Iraq (which he led us into solely because of a personal family feud with Hussein - I know that he knew that the WMD justification was BS, because his explanation of it, on its own, didn't even make sense), Afghanistan (which may have had an iota of legitimacy, but ended up a quagmire), the Iran deal (because the USA no longer had the moral high ground after Iraq to step in), bringing back medieval torture, the tyrannical Patriot Act, and at least part of the 2008 bubble (he relaxed a lot of regulations that, although they did not directly allow what happened, ushered in the culture where the behaviours that led to the recession gestated). Fuck that guy.
     
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  11. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...lly-sucks-at-math_us_576a4dffe4b065534f484015

    Ok, this is what gets me, because I think we all work with people like this.

    First, I don't really care that Trump can't solve a simple multiplication problem. I mean, it'd be reassuring if he could, but I honestly wouldn't care if he couldn't, as long as the gripes below were mitigated. To be frank, though 17 x 6 is not a difficult problem to solve.

    Second, if you go around bragging how smart you are, you need something, anything, to back that up. If I went around here showing off the score I got on my IQ test, then I should provide a photo of the test results or similar. Trump doesn't have anything to back up his claims that he's the most clever man alive- Nothing. He's the type of dude who would show that shit off to everybody if he had it, so I know he doesn't.

    Third, and most of all, he cannot admit that he is wrong. Not only that, but one step further, he cannot stop himself from insisting that he's correct, even when he's blatantly wrong. For about one minute, one of the other producers keeps explaining how the answer is 102, but Trump insists that it's 112 until someone does it on a calculator, then he simply stops talking and sits there smugly and awkwardly smiling, like he's so sure that it's 112 and that the calculator and the producers are wrong.

    Obama had some problems with some of his goals as well. But where Obama took the approach of trying to convince congress to approve legislation to accomplish his goals, Trump just tried doing everything by executive action, which reached its limitations almost immediately.

    Trump might be horribly misguided, he might be brash and reckless, but one thing I will not say is that he's lazy, because he has been getting a lot of things moving, even if they are not going anywhere but in circles. Lots of instantaneous movement even if the push-pull averages out back where it started. I had a post a few pages back with a sort of survey of his attempted accomplishments, and it was honestly just the tip of the iceberg.

    I did. I cannot forgive the guy who deliberately and knowingly started two wars under false pretenses, understanding that those wars had no justification and no end in sight. Trump might do worse, but Bush is ultimately responsible for 9/11 (the Clinton administration tried to warn him that the danger was teeming on the horizon, and he made the conscious decision to take focus off of it), Iraq (which he led us into solely because of a personal family feud with Hussein - I know that he knew that the WMD justification was BS, because his explanation of it, on its own, didn't even make sense), Afghanistan (which may have had an iota of legitimacy, but ended up a quagmire), the Iran deal (because the USA no longer had the moral high ground after Iraq to step in), bringing back medieval torture, the tyrannical Patriot Act, and at least part of the 2008 bubble (he relaxed a lot of regulations that, although they did not directly allow what happened, ushered in the culture where the behaviours that led to the recession gestated). Fuck that guy.
     
  12. synrgy

    synrgy Ya ya ya I am Lorde

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    I can't disagree with any of that, except to say that I don't think most of that was W's decision-making, but that of his puppet-masters. Granted, this does not excuse him, but I genuinely think he was too dimwitted to have even conceived of most of what he did.

    I could easily be wrong, of course. Maybe he's tenfold smarter than I give him credit for, and maybe the whole 'puppet show' look was a calculated move. Seems like a stretch, and pretty much qualifies him for all of the Oscars ever, but yeah, not impossible.

    *edit* And, to be clear, none of this makes me a retroactive fan of the man. If one dug into my post history from when he was still POTUS, I think my general opposition to his Admin would be obvious.
     
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  13. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Yes, but Obama got them across the goal line. Trump hasn't. He doesn't have a single legislative victory of note I can think of, at a time when his (nominal) party controls both houses of Congress, with the possible exception of his deal to get a Harvey relief bill packaged with a short term spending plan and a debt ceiling increase, and that was done with the democrats.

    I mean, picture basically any republican other than Trump in the white house, and ask yourself if we'd only be turning to the -skeletal - beginnings of a tax reform plan now, 250 days into his term, with zero accomplishments on any of his other objectives. And what's Trump doing, this last week? Fighting with the NFL about players kneeling during the National Anthem, blasting the Mayor of San Juan over twitter, and challenging his Secretary of State to an IQ contest.

    His administration is a trainwreck.
     
  14. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    No, I'm with you, too. The Bush Administration did a lot of things I disagreed with, sometimes quite strongly. One or two I think he's been vindicated - the Arab Spring made his attempt to bring democracy to the Middle East a lot less hair-brained in retrospect, even if his means were a little questionable. But even some of the ones I disagree with, I at least can find things in them I respect him for. For example, the Bush tax cuts... He ran on them at a time of budgetary surplus, and then we had the dot-com crash and that surplus went away. His advisors immediately started drawing up a plan B, but Bush's attitide was "I said I was going to do it, so now I'm going to do it." I think that was a mistake, but there's at least an integrity there, even if IMO a course of action with just as much integrity would have been to publicly say "Listen, I wanted to do this when we had a budget surplus thanks to capital gains. We don't anymore. The economy has changed so this isn't the right course of action, after all."

    Decent guy, he just stood for a lot of ideas I didn't. Trump, meanwhile, stands for himself, uber alles.
     
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  15. synrgy

    synrgy Ya ya ya I am Lorde

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    Yeah, that's what I was getting at. Without mincing words, I pretty much hated W, but at the same time I believed he was trying to follow his own moral compass and genuinely trying to do what he believed was good; even if I disagreed with most or all of it. Seeing how he's all but disappeared since, except to take up painting veterans for charity, it's clear that he was humbled by his experience.

    In contrast, Drumpf is clearly a sociopath. I don't believe morality has ever been on his radar, or that he has any particular beliefs/convictions outside himself being the center of the Universe. Humility is an entirely foreign concept to the man.
     
  16. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    Well, we agree on the last bit.

    Right now, Trump isn't going to get a damn thing done, either, and I think we agree there. He's too busy trying to shut down NBC for actually reporting news, going after the NFL players, sparring with his own cabinet members, trying to figure out how to get congressmen fired, trying to figure out how not to get impeached (ha! who am I kidding, he's not even thinking about that, clearly), and also trying to figure out which parts of the world a part of the USA but not states. He can't possibly get any administrative work done whilst he's running all of these battles from all different sides.

    Obama didn't accomplish everything he set out to do. Period. You can equivocate and say that no president ever has, which is fine, but it's not correct to imply that he was 100% successful, either. IMO, he was a hell of a lot more effective than people credit him. Trump's going to have a lot more hangups than Obama, for sure, but he did manage to essentially ban Muslims, he managed to take the EPA down a few notches, he managed to put more money into the pockets of his favourite businesses, he appointed a conservative SCotUS justice, he repealed immigration amnesty programs, he banned lobbyists, and...well...he lifted a few regulations on mining operations. I really don't think he's going to accomplish much else unless something major changes now. Anyway, he's not batting zero, but he's not batting well enough for the big leagues, either.

    The Arab Spring is what led to these problems with ISIS, though. And it totally backfired in Iran. Maybe Libya is doing better, but Egypt is (arguably) worse. Some wins for the ME, but about half or more ended as losses. I think counting the Arab Spring in general as an accomplishment is a really hard sell.

    Making a shitty plan and then sticking to it because you said it was the plan, when circumstances prove you wrong, is not a good attitude, either, in fact, it's the same bull-headedness that makes Trump so much of a danger. He's going to keep trying to ban Islam and build the Great Wall of Mexico, no matter how much evidence piles up to prove both of those are bad ideas. Bush willfully lied to the public, and it cost thousands of young American lives in Iraq. I don't see how that speaks anything positive about his character.
     
  17. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Though, to be fair, he's done most of this by executive order. It can be undone by executive order in short order once he's gone. Something like a permanent change to the US tax code or The Great Wall of Mexico would be a little harder to undo after his term is over.

    The bigger risk, IMO, is that he continues to find ways to undercut the ACA outside of legislative change - decimating the advertising budget for the signup period, his rumored executive order due out in coming days to allow federal agencies to introduce their own ACA-exempt health care plans (it may be federal agency unions, I only caught a few od the details), continuing to threaten to withhold subsidies, etc.

    Other than that, though - I mean, even Gorsuch was more McConnell's accomplishment than Trump's, after stonewalling Obama for a year and then changing the procedural rules to avoid filibuster. Trump didn't really do anything to get him approved, he just named the guy.
     
  18. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    Agreed on all points.

    I did try to clarify that a few posts ago, though:
    The thing is, even if he does all sorts of crap by executive order, it stands as policy until either someone else goes through the effort to stop it. It doesn't even have to be the next president. Executive order could be challenged by the Supreme Court or even by Congress. But, any one of those three options takes considerable time and a fair amount of political capital.

    The Wall is probably not happening. I really don't see how he'd be able to pull that off, and I've said it all along. It's too much of a big deal. If a majority of people in a majority of congressional districts oppose the Wall's construction, then the Wall won't get a budget, and without a budget, it won't happen. But, the tax code...well, I'd give that better odds, maybe even 30% chance of happening. I don't think it's more likely than not, but I think it is likely enough to not write it off. We'll see.

    This is one of those rare instances in which I have more faith in Congress than in the president. :/
     
  19. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    They've been spineless so far, but revolt is becoming quite a bit more open.

    All along I've argued that the GOP has been willing to tolerate Trump as a means to the end of ACA repeal/replace and tax cuts. They failed on the first, and if it starts to become clear that they're going to fail on the second... Trump is toast.
     
  20. bostjan

    bostjan MicroMetal Contributor

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    Serious question:

    If The USA pulls out of the Iran deal, and the rest of the signatories stay in, does anything happen next?
     

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