EU Referendum

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by Maybrick, Jun 17, 2016.

  1. StevenC

    StevenC SS.org Regular

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    Boris doesn't have faith in the Brexit as an actual good idea. A win for Boris would be a close loss for Leave, and then becoming party leader in 2020. Farage said he completed his part by getting the Brexit referendum win, and doesn't have any more to do. UKIP is tiny, so if he loses it doesn't matter, but if he wins he can go out on a high.
     
  2. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    ...that they're learning a "Leave" vote was a poison pill, and neither of them wants to swallow it?
     
  3. Rook

    Rook Electrifying

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    Nigel Farage has absolutely no authority, isn't even an MP, and his party only has one MP who doesn't even like him. People are making him leaving sound like he's jumping ship, but they're giving him too much credit. He never had - and was never going to have - any sway on the resulting negotiations post brexit. Him 'staying' is meaningless, like others have said, he got what he came for, now he just needs to give UKIP a chance to become a credible party; I'm not sure it will either way. We need to remember Farage wasn't actually part of the official leave campaign.

    Boris left because the people he had backing him decided actually they weren't going to back him. So rather than standing and failing, he took himself out of the running. His key support, Michael Gove (who was also part of the official leave campaign) decided - despite his repeatedly saying he never wants to be leader - to stand for leader, somewhat betraying Boris. To suggest that all the brexiteers have 'run away having realised the err of their ways' is daft, not only did Michael Gove stand, he also didn't get voted for by a party which is I believe majority brexit supporting MP's.

    It's facile to suggest that Farage, Boris and Gove were the only people who wanted Brexit. Even May was eurosceptic and in her own words only decided 'on balance' that she was remain, she could see a convincing argument either way, which is why I actually think she's in a good position to lead.

    I also just wanted to add that if anyone thinks that the currency and stock market falling after nearly 2 weeks is proof that Brexit was wrong, the economists were right, and that nobody on the leave side expected this is a ridiculous oversimplification. All of these things are caused purely by uncertainty, uncertainty is caused by the fact the negotiations haven't happened yet, and this was always going to be the case. In a number of months time when they start to announce 'the deal' and start to talk about arrangements they make with other countries - Canada, Australia, New Zealand, India etc etc - things will start to normalise.

    I think we need to get a new leader and negotiations starting as quickly as possible so we can get back to where we were and stop worrying 'normal' people with all the continuing, divisive fear mongering.
     
  4. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Well, like anything, there's a LOT of factors to take into account here. but, I'd say that the fact one of the things stabilizing the markets a little this morning, after the pound fell to a new 31-year-low, was that Carney came out and lowered capital reserve requirements to allow banks greater ability to make emergency lending, saying that "some of the Brexit risks have begun to materialize," and that he didn't want to see a repeat of the mistakes of 2007-2008 and the tight lending conditions that made the economic damage worse is hardly encouraging.

    Honestly, the fact that you've seen almost a 15% depreciation in the pound since the Brexit crisis may actually be the biggest cause for hope for the British economy right now - at this rate, if the pound keeps trading off, British labor just became 15% more competitive globally and maybe some of those manufacturing jobs WILL come back. :lol:
     
  5. Rook

    Rook Electrifying

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    While I realise your tongue was firmly in cheek there, it's true. The company I work for buys and sells in dollars too, and the UK only accounts for 10% of our global business - we're laughing.

    Carney just needs to chill out in my opinion. Why on earth he saw any need to tell people the other day he was considering quantitative easing is just beyond me. Who was that supposed to help? He may as well have just come out holding a big sign saying 'sell your sterling' haha.

    If our currency had fallen to a 30 year low without something like Brexit it would be a worry, but since our currency values these days are firmly a measure of people buying and selling currency itself from the comfort of their £1,000 office chairs and Italian suits, all it shows is that those people aren't looking at the pound right now saying 'I think I'll make a relatively short term profit on that', and that's because we haven't publicly shown anything that's going to stimulate growth yet. We couldn't have a Brexit 'plan' because the government who would have to make that plan was pro remain and making a plan would dignify the opposing view - if they did it properly they might as well hang a billboard for Brexit and see themselves out from the start.

    Unfortunately we get lumped with a few months of this rubbish and a few years of uncertainty as a result.

    Assuming we ever actual end up leaving...
     
  6. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Well, there's a little more to it than that... Currencies don't just move because of the presence of speculators - you're correct to point out that they're a commodity like any other, and they respond to the laws of supply and demand like any other commodity.

    So, keeping that in mind, the main reason the international market needs pounds, is to pay for goods or services that are denominated in pounds. The collapse of the pound, with no other factors in play like changes in interest rate policies, is a pretty good indicator that either the international community expects to be doing a lot less business with UK firms in coming months, or, maybe a little more charitably, that the international community is suddenly very unsure if they'll be doing the business with UK firms that the FX rate had previously priced in.

    In other words, Brexit is likely to be VERY bad for international trade for thw UK, which I think is a pretty common-sense conclusion from stepping out of a free trade zone.
     
  7. Rook

    Rook Electrifying

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    I half agree... First, you've very much simplified what I was saying based on my silly description of currency traders, regardless of motive, as people who make money from it. I'm very aware that people buying currency aren't just FX traders on a trading floor, as I alluded to earlier our business is very much an international one.

    While you could draw the conclusion you have, it being 'very bad for international trade', which I don't think is actually true in the medium term onward. A simpler explanation is simply that they think it'll drop further. The initial shock's easily explained by the vote not going the way people expected, causing people to short their trades and panic selling. It started to recover, then Mark Carney said 'I'm going to create inflation', which basically means 'if you buy sterling now, you lose money if you sell any time between now and once it's recovered from my silly quantitative easing policy which I probably won't end up introducing, I'm just trying to appear decisive' hahaha. Idiot.

    As I say though, we're a few years off knowing how this has really all panned out. I'd love the leadership to sort itself out and start announcing talks with the queue of commonwealth countries who want to talk trade though.
     
  8. 1b4n3z

    1b4n3z SS.org Regular

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    I wonder about the attack on Carney which apparently went underway even before the vote? The BoE chief is just telling things as they are - property investment falling -> funds (and banks) threatened (but in better shape than before the 08 crisis) and economy growth slowing down thanks to postponed investment. Just as predicted I gather. Since there is no functional government - and they couldn't kick start growth anyway based on previous experience - it has to be the Bank doing something. Carney dislikes negative interest rates so it's QE or something. Doesn't create inflation unless there is excess demand for credit
     
  9. Nick

    Nick Stop the Madness!

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    are you drunk?!
     
  10. P-Ride

    P-Ride SS.org Regular

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    No. My comments are in context of Boris against the other potential Conservative candidates, as well as Corbyn - the only Labour candidate.

    Hardly an illustrious set; but within them, I see no-one else who has demonstrated both the ability to win elections and act in some ambassadorial capacity.
     
  11. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Not really - faced with deteriorating credit liquidity, he lowered capital requirements to facilitate bank lending. That's not "trying to create inflation," that's trying to keep the financial markets from seizing up.

    The global reaction was that he DID help calm the markets, even if you personally disagree.
     
  12. Rook

    Rook Electrifying

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    I'm not referring to that, I'm referring to his announcement that he 'might use a quantitative easing fiscal policy'.
     

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