Another mass shooting... Orlando Fl.

Discussion in 'Politics & Current Events' started by DistinguishedPapyrus, Jun 12, 2016.

  1. bloodfiredoom

    bloodfiredoom DOOMED

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    my state allows open carry without any kind of license, so a majority of colorado thinks it is fine.

    don't get me wrong, i hate it, but this country loves weapons. when there are enough guns to arm every man woman and child, with some left over, it is hard to argue with the fact that they are necessary. good luck stopping the cycle. there is no hope.
     
  2. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    I don't believe that for a hot second. First, eyewitness accounts are notoriously unreliable, especially under fire. Second, if the authorities in Orlando had credible information about a second shooter, the priority would be to find him, which means maximum media exposure.
     
  3. CapnForsaggio

    CapnForsaggio Cap'n (general)

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    Every population that has suffered genocide in the last 100 years, has been legally disarmed....

    I get what you are saying, but I don't think you get what I am saying.

    'It is far better to have and not need, than to need and not have.'
     
  4. bloodfiredoom

    bloodfiredoom DOOMED

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    i debated even getting involved in this thread, but i wanted to see how my comments would be received.

    I noticed those with a moderate view tend to get beat up more than those who are fanatical for guns and those who are against (or want major reform). it is something that, in america, is never going to change unless the country collapses into chaos or tyranny, both of which are completely possible. this is a feature of america: a lot of big talking with no action.

    so, it isnt something worry or talk about much.

    as you were, im out.
     
  5. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    But not every population with fewer gun rights than the US has suffered a genocide event. I find that to be extremely unpersuasive reasoning, especially in light of the substantial evidence that having a populace well-supplied with guns produces a significant increase in violence *right now*.
     
  6. CapnForsaggio

    CapnForsaggio Cap'n (general)

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    Exactly, but EVERY population who has suffered genocide has been disarmed....

    And the "level of violence" is significantly down in the last 20 years, as the number of guns in private hands have gone way up.

    So what point are you trying to make?
     
  7. pwsusi

    pwsusi SS.org Regular

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    I don't think anyone can define a precise set of criteria that - if met, guarantees a person will not commit a crime with a fire arm and - if not met, will guarantee a person would commit a crime with a firearm. So if we can't define the problem i'm not sure how can we pass laws to fix it.

    There are currently licensing requirements to purchase and own a firearm. There are background checks, waiting periods, etc. We could look at additional training for prospective gun owners too but that would have absolutely no impact on whether or not a person is going to shoot up a night club. It's a great idea to keep people from accidentally shooting themselves or someone else, but will not keep someone from doing what was done in Orlando.

    Laws do not prevent crime; they define it. The only thing that laws do is limit the freedoms of people who are willing to follow them.
     
  8. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    That trying to defend gun rights with an appeal to fear over some entirely hypothetical future genocide when actual people are actually dying from actual gunshots right now is grotesque. YMMV.
     
  9. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Because I overthink things for fun, I did some reading into what got him flagged.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/us/politics/noor-zahi-salman-omar-mateen.html

    Essentially, he bragged to coworkers in a fight that he had ties too Hezbollah and al Qaeda. Paraphrasing, the investigators figured it probably wasn't credible anyway, since one is a predominantly Shiite group and the other predominantly Sunni and a member of one wouldn't be a member of the other, but they looked into it anyway. When interviewed he said he was just trying to get them to stop making fun of him for his Muslim heritage, ad they found zero evidence of any actual contact with either groups or any other known extremist/terrorist organizations. After 9 or 10 months, with nothing to show for it, they closed the file and pulled him off the list.

    This is a moot point, of course, because this wouldn't have stopped him from buying guns in the first place, since background checks aren't allowed to reference the terror watch list.
     
  10. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Do you have anything other than empty slogans to contribute to this conversation? I'm still curious what this "policy" failure you speak of was, perhaps you could start there.
     
  11. Randy

    Randy Ooh, Degrasse Tyson-son Super Moderator

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    Well, semi moot. They couldn't stop him from buying the gun (which is the real moot point IMO, since the San Bernardino shooter acquired his gun from a straw purchaser), but they'd have still been surveilling him and potentially been alerted to other cues he was about to carry out an attack.
     
  12. SD83

    SD83 SS.org Regular

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    I had written a longer blog entry on that a while ago when some US politician said "The holocaust would never have happened if the jewish population would have been as well armed as the US population is" and why I think that is not only not necessarily true, but would actually have made things way worse (in German, wouldn't mind translating though). Because it would mean that everyone in that country would have had a gun, not only the rather small minority being under attack, but also the vast majority supporting the attacking government. If you had a gun or several in every single German house by 1940, including military grade equipment, my country would have turned into the Afghanistan of the 40s. It might have reduced that death toll for the Genocide, but it might have also prolonged the war into the 50s, maybe longer.
    If the Tutsi in Rwanda would have been well armed, would they have stopped the Genocide? Probably not, because they were outnumbered by their attackers 9 to 1 and those would have been well armed as well, years of civil war, hoorray. (now that I think about it, if I remember correctly that one was actually in part carried out by a rather not-so-well armed militia with machetes and such, stuff that might have been readily available to the attacked as well).

    Don't get me wrong, as citizen of current day USA, where all I know is from the news and places like this, I would want to have a gun. Just like I would want to have a gun as a citizen of Somalia, Syria, Libya or Iraq. Which is as far as I know a rather common view here, sadly.
     
  13. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    Background checks, licensing, etc. apply to *handgun* purchases. Rifles and shotguns don't get the same treatment under federal law, and most states don't regulate them either. I could walk into a local sporting goods store right now and walk out with an AR-15 variant with no more waiting time than the length of the line at the register.

    In counterpoint:

    Source: Terrorists Are Turning To Guns More Often In U.S. Attacks | FiveThirtyEight
     
  14. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    True. And this is where things get kind of sticky.

    He was dropped from the list in 2013 because there was no evidence he had been in contact with extremists, either via in person contact, phone or email conversation, or through websites he'd visited or social media entities he's followed, and because the original tip-off had been determined to be not a credible threat. This was at a time when the FBI was facing increasing heat for leaving people on the list for long periods of time without credible evidence they were a threat, and at a time when they were slammed with caseloads. So, there has to be a trade-off where we can't monitor a US citizen indefinitely without some plausible basis for wrongdoing, yet on the other hand you want to ensure that we're really properly evaluating threats. Security vs civil liberty, which is a tough tradeoff to balance, and is super easy to second guess in hindsight.

    That doesn't mean there aren't other things that should have made it problematic to be selling this guy a gun - he evidently had a history of domestic violence, though to be fair I don't know if he'd ever been convicted. And, I think it's pretty undeniable that if he'd gone into this club with a couple handguns instead of a semiautomatic rifle with high capacity magazines, the body count would have been a LOT lower - he likely wouldn't have survived the shootout with two police officers out front before he even got inside.
     
  15. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    The way our current gun laws are set up, it was substantially easier for him to get the semiautomatic rifle than it would have been to get a couple of pistols - there's no federal background check required for non-handgun purchases, and FL has very little state regulation on guns in general (banning open carry of firearms is the notable exception).
     
  16. technomancer

    technomancer Gearus Pimptasticus Super Moderator

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  17. Mordacain

    Mordacain 1-watt brigadier

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    I'm seeing rather conflicting information on that, and honestly, all I can find are polls and not actual sales data so not exactly good for a basis of a conclusion.

    Of course, correlation does not equal causation so it really doesn't matter without additional supporting evidence either way.

    That being said, good article that takes a stab at debunking the correlated point that gun ownership as led to a decrease in violent crime: A history of violence | The Economist
     
  18. Drew

    Drew Forum MVP

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    Correlation =/= causation. Coincidently enough I was reading an interesting peice on Bloomberg News this morning that argued this may have a lot more to do with falling lead levels, that on a localized basis it tracked well on a one-generation lag with public projects to remove lead from public infastructure, and a broader national trend began to emerge one generation after the Clean Air Act, which removed lead from gasoline.

    I don't claim to be an expert on the science nor do I know how reliable this is (save that Bloomberg news is neither particularly liberal nor prone to pseudo-science), and I mention it mostly as an example of how fiendishly complicated it is to draw conclusions in non-controlled situations.

    I will say, however, that a lack of a decline in violence in Yemen, Serbia, Saudi Arabia, or Iraq does sort of poke holes into the theory that the mere presence of guns is a deterrence.
     
  19. technomancer

    technomancer Gearus Pimptasticus Super Moderator

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    I am very aware correlation does not equal causation.

    The actual crime statistics (which are linked in my post) do show the ZOMG VIOLENCE IS WORST EVER WE ARE ALL DOOMED!!!!! crowd is not in touch with reality, which was my key point. It can also clearly not be argued that violent crime is escalating due to gun ownership as violent crime is in fact decreasing.

    Drew: I will also say the situation here has zero resemblance to any of the countries you mention in that we are not a war zone, surrounded by a war zone, or controlled by a completely unstable government so the comparison is a bit disingenuous...

    Anyways not getting sucked into the endless debate, just wanted to point out the actual statistics do not support the gloom and doom gun nut society view that people seem to like to portray.
     
  20. celticelk

    celticelk Enflamed with prayer

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    Total *number of guns owned* is increasing, but the rate of gun ownership among US households has actually declined significantly over the past forty years: http://www.vpc.org/studies/ownership.pdf. That suggests that a large part of the increase in guns-in-circulation is to collectors and other (mostly white and relatively wealthy) gun enthusiasts, where they are statistically less likely to be involved in violent crime. As a result, I don't put much stock in that correlation. I'm also of a mind that "better than it used to be" is, in this case, not equivalent to "good" or even "acceptable" - the US still has substantially higher per-capita violent crime, and especially gun crime, rates than other developed-world nations.
     

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