[Drew]

...as of today, is a tie, more or less: 271.5 Clinton, 271 Obama.

Also, I've been posting charts over the course of the campaign, tracking trends in superdelegate voting - here's what they look like as of today.





I think the 5-day rolling average chart is the most telling - this is the one and only instance where I think it's not bullshit to talk about "momentum" - Clinton has evidently lost ten superdelegates in the last couple days, wheras Obama is picking them up left and right. They're like, forgive the metaphor, rats fleeing a sinking ship. That gap in daily averages is the highest since Super Tuesday, and unlike then, Clinton's average change is awfully close to zero, whereas Obama's is the highest it's been in months.

The onlookers are starting to shift - If this keeps up, Clinton will have a very hard time campaigning even through the end of May.

[urklvt]

... but who's counting?

Hey man, GREAT data! I must have missed it, but where are you posting this so I can keep watching?

[Drew]

I've posted a couple threads in here... I'll hunt a few down asap, but for now, here's my data source:

2008 Democratic Convention Watch: Superdelegate Endorsement List

[urklvt]

Ah great, site's blocked by the admin.... I'll check from home. Thanks though!
This is really turning out to be an exciting time in politics.

[Drew]

So, Super Tuesday is coming up...

So, as you know, I've been tracking trends in the Superdelegate Race

Also, not to play Internet Prophet or anything, but my original post when I first saw the superdelegate totals back in January:

Originally Posted by Drew

I'll make the following two guesses:

1.) 100 votes is no immaterial margin on a race this close, but it's certainly one that can be overcome, and
2.) These ratios will NOT hold constant. If Obama begins to pull away, then two things will happen - one, he will begin to get a higher percentage of super delegate votes, as more people decide he's the favorite and they want to be on the winning side, and two, he will need these votes less. The reverse is also true, of course.

We've got maybe a little over 1/3 of the superdelegate votes in at this point - I'd almost say that based on the positioning now, they'll certaintly have a "leveraging" effect on the next few weeks where anyone who picks up a delegate edge will pick up a higher superdelegate edge, as well, but most likely the super delegates will NOT decide this election alone.

That pretty much held true.

I want to get into political commentary - this shit is fun.

[urklvt]

Dude, you definitely know your shit and it rules to see young(er) Americans so passionate about this stuff. I've spent so much of my life overseas, 16+ years now, removed from the process and the related media coverage that I'm only now really starting to give it the attention it needs. One of the first things I made sure to do when I got back to the States this past March was to register to vote when I was getting my new driver license.

[noodles]

The tail end of that second graph is extremely telling. While Obama has been closing the gap, it has been a little bit at a time until now, and the two curves even seemed to mirror each other at points. Now, Clinton looks like she is dropping off the map, while Obama is shooting up.

This, coupled with the fact that she is going broke, does not bode well for her campaign. When Obama's superdelegate count surpasses Clinton, I think you will see senior Democrats--most notably Howard Dean--calling for her to drop out.

I also can't help but think that McGovern switching sides, along with a lengthy explanation why, is behind the recent surge.

[Drew]

McGovern was huge.

The other good news is that it's now highly unlikely that Clinton will have the majority of superdelegates on her side come May 20th, when the Obama camp is planning on declaring victory based on the fact that at this point they'll now have the simple majority of available pledged delegates on their side. He might still not quite have the 2,025 he needs to win, but he'll be a hell of a lot closer and he'll have a much stronger case at that point, with a superdelegate lead, especially if this trend of deflections continues.

[noodles]

Obama narrows Clinton lead in superdelegates - CNN.com

Despite those efforts, the Clinton camp already appears to be planning an exit strategy, according to Lawrence O'Donnell, a Huffington Post contributor who cited Clinton insiders.

"They are saying that Hillary will be out of the race by June 15," O'Donnell said Friday on CNN's "American Morning."

"What the senior campaign official has told me is that they will go through the final votes on June 3.

"Remember, Hillary is going to win maybe three of the elections, and Obama is going to win maybe three elections coming out of it," he said, referring to the remaining six contests. Video Watch what O'Donnell says Clinton insiders are saying behind doors »

O'Donnell said the Clinton campaign then would make its case to the superdelegates for about a week after the primaries ended.

"The superdelegates have no chance of moving over to Hillary Clinton in a week," he said. "So for the Clinton campaign to say we will only make the case for a week, and then by June 15, we will have a nominee, that is to say she will drop out."

[Drew]

That's good news. I still don't know how she's going to afford to make it that far...