This will be a mess

Drew · 05-08-2008, 10:07 AM

Obama plans to declare victory May 20 - Yahoo! News

In summary: May 20th, Obama plans to declare victory, assuming nothing changes, based on a needed delegate total of 2,025 that excludes florida and michigan (which, to be fair, is the official DNC number this year). Clinton plans to contest it, based on a needed 2,209 margin including the two stripped states. The kicker is Obama most likely will not have 2,025 delegates at that point, but rather a simple majority of the possible pledged delegates.

I foresee this getting VERY ugly. :/

BigM555 · 05-08-2008, 10:15 AM

WTF? How childish does this need to get?

So Hillary, and by proxy the DNC, would jeapordize a shot at the whitehouse for the Democrats with a simple act of sticking their fingers in their ears and screaming "NO WE DIDN'T WIN BUT NEITHER DID YOU!"

ElRay · 05-08-2008, 10:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drew

I foresee this getting VERY ugly. :/

I wouldn't be surprised see Clinton running as an independent, if she doesn't get her shot at a third term as a Democrat. I don't know how likely that would be, but I wouldn't be surprised if she does. I cannot see her tolerating the VP slot, even if she's asked.

Ray

urklvt · 05-08-2008, 10:26 AM

Hm. That's not a wise move to make in my book. VERY ugly.

Matt Crooks · 05-08-2008, 10:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ElRay

I wouldn't be surprised see Clinton running as an independent, if she doesn't get her shot at a third term as a Democrat. I don't know how likely that would be, but I wouldn't be surprised if she does. I cannot see her tolerating the VP slot, even if she's asked.

Ray

...and if somehow the DNC denies Obama the nomination, I can see him running independent as well. He'd have a strong case to do it as well.

Chris · 05-08-2008, 10:43 AM

The democrats just want McCain to get elected, apparently.

Drew · 05-08-2008, 10:46 AM

I've never thought much about the Obama side of it, but I have a little about Clinton.

I don't think she can do it, and I think she knows it. She's barely financially afloat now, and she's already tapped out her fundraisers, by and large. She'll have to dip significantly into her own personal fortune to even make it to June 2nd, I suspect. If she loses the nomination then, she'll be broke, have no reliable fundraising prospects, and will be without the support of the DNC.

Can she really finance a campaign at that point? As I understand, if she runs as an independant she's inelligible for federal funding (to the tune of about $80 million, which even then may not be enough) simply because she's not running on a party that's recieved more than 5% of the vote in a previous election. So that's out. She has too little of her personal wealth to finance a serious campaign, she can't count on raising more than another few tens of millions of dollars, and she won't be able to get national funding. Sure, she could dump every last penny she has into the campaign, but for one I doubt Bill would stand for that (I bet he'll be quiet for the remainder of the campaign, now that the math is insurmountable), and for another she has to realize that even if she managed to stay competitive with Obama, all they'd do would be split the Democratic vote, and she'd finish 3rd behind Obama (with his stronger independant support) and both behind McCain, with the full force of the GOP behind him as well as a certain crossover appeal. She'd go broke for nothing.

Her only shot is using the VP seat as bait - what's Bloomberg's take, these days? A Clinton/Bloomberg ticket would secure her the necessary funding, but again she's at a huge disadvantage because she's fighting Obama for a pool of votes about the size combined as what McCain can reliably count on.

It's a mathematical impossibility for her to win as a 3rd party candidate against Obama. Besides, she'd have had to start the groundwork by now to get her name on the ballots, and I haven't heard anything. I think she'll be forced to bow out after the convention or when she goes broke, whichever happens first, and I think Obama thinks his odds are good enough not to have to fall back on that, and neither of them will have the time to launch a third party campaign after the convention.

Drew · 05-08-2008, 10:47 AM

The Democrats just want this to be over, chris. Clinton evidently does not want Obama to be president in '08, whatever the cost.

noodles · 05-08-2008, 12:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris

The democrats just want McCain to get elected, apparently.

noodles · 05-08-2008, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Crooks

...and if somehow the DNC denies Obama the nomination, I can see him running independent as well. He'd have a strong case to do it as well.

And go down in history as pulling a Teddy Roosevelt? I think Bill would rein her in before that.

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05-08-2008, 10:07 AM	#1 (permalink)
Drew Fear the Polo! • Super Moderator • Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Somerville, MA Posts: 27,935 Real Name: Call me Ahab... Main Seven: 1991 Ibanez UV7PWH Main ERG: Sherman 5-string bass Rig: Mesa Recto-verb 50 Thanked: 123	This will be a mess Obama plans to declare victory May 20 - Yahoo! News In summary: May 20th, Obama plans to declare victory, assuming nothing changes, based on a needed delegate total of 2,025 that excludes florida and michigan (which, to be fair, is the official DNC number this year). Clinton plans to contest it, based on a needed 2,209 margin including the two stripped states. The kicker is Obama most likely will not have 2,025 delegates at that point, but rather a simple majority of the possible pledged delegates. I foresee this getting VERY ugly. :/ "...and everything under the sun is in tune, but the sun is eclipsed by the moon."

05-08-2008, 10:43 AM	#6 (permalink)
Chris Adminishredder • Site Admin • Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Boston, Mass Posts: 24,579 Real Name: Mr. F. Johnson Main Seven: Sherman Custom Main ERG: Douglas 6ST Bass Rig: 2101 -> S160 -> Mesa Thanked: 464	The democrats just want McCain to get elected, apparently. :: chrisquigley.com :: Sevenstring Registry :: Share Your Music :: Share Your Patches :: Sevenstring.org MySpace chmod +ax /bin/laden

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BigM555 I SS.org Salute You! Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: Ontario, Canada Posts: 1,369 Real Name: Mike Main Seven: RWG RG777 Rig: GP100 -> MESA 20/20 Thanked: 19	WTF? How childish does this need to get? So Hillary, and by proxy the DNC, would jeapordize a shot at the whitehouse for the Democrats with a simple act of sticking their fingers in their ears and screaming "NO WE DIDN'T WIN BUT NEITHER DID YOU!"

05-08-2008, 10:26 AM	#4 (permalink)
urklvt Vomitous Mass Join Date: May 2005 Location: Ft. Puke, LA Posts: 2,345 Real Name: Eric Main Seven: Customized S7420 Main ERG: Customized S7420 Rig: Mesa Mark IV Thanked: 4 / 1	Hm. That's not a wise move to make in my book. VERY ugly.

05-08-2008, 10:46 AM	#7 (permalink)
Drew Fear the Polo! • Super Moderator • Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Somerville, MA Posts: 27,935 Real Name: Call me Ahab... Main Seven: 1991 Ibanez UV7PWH Main ERG: Sherman 5-string bass Rig: Mesa Recto-verb 50 Thanked: 123	I've never thought much about the Obama side of it, but I have a little about Clinton. I don't think she can do it, and I think she knows it. She's barely financially afloat now, and she's already tapped out her fundraisers, by and large. She'll have to dip significantly into her own personal fortune to even make it to June 2nd, I suspect. If she loses the nomination then, she'll be broke, have no reliable fundraising prospects, and will be without the support of the DNC. Can she really finance a campaign at that point? As I understand, if she runs as an independant she's inelligible for federal funding (to the tune of about $80 million, which even then may not be enough) simply because she's not running on a party that's recieved more than 5% of the vote in a previous election. So that's out. She has too little of her personal wealth to finance a serious campaign, she can't count on raising more than another few tens of millions of dollars, and she won't be able to get national funding. Sure, she could dump every last penny she has into the campaign, but for one I doubt Bill would stand for that (I bet he'll be quiet for the remainder of the campaign, now that the math is insurmountable), and for another she has to realize that even if she managed to stay competitive with Obama, all they'd do would be split the Democratic vote, and she'd finish 3rd behind Obama (with his stronger independant support) and both behind McCain, with the full force of the GOP behind him as well as a certain crossover appeal. She'd go broke for nothing. Her only shot is using the VP seat as bait - what's Bloomberg's take, these days? A Clinton/Bloomberg ticket would secure her the necessary funding, but again she's at a huge disadvantage because she's fighting Obama for a pool of votes about the size combined as what McCain can reliably count on. It's a mathematical impossibility for her to win as a 3rd party candidate against Obama. Besides, she'd have had to start the groundwork by now to get her name on the ballots, and I haven't heard anything. I think she'll be forced to bow out after the convention or when she goes broke, whichever happens first, and I think Obama thinks his odds are good enough not to have to fall back on that, and neither of them will have the time to launch a third party campaign after the convention.

05-08-2008, 10:47 AM	#8 (permalink)
Drew Fear the Polo! • Super Moderator • Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Somerville, MA Posts: 27,935 Real Name: Call me Ahab... Main Seven: 1991 Ibanez UV7PWH Main ERG: Sherman 5-string bass Rig: Mesa Recto-verb 50 Thanked: 123	The Democrats just want this to be over, chris. Clinton evidently does not want Obama to be president in '08, whatever the cost.


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