[TheMissing]

Pennsylvania Primary Results: Latest News, Video - Politics on The Huffington Post

...I just want this to end. It's terrible for the democrats. Things are starting to look good for McCain to get elected with the Dems split like it is.

[ohio_eric]

I'm not sure if McCain is a lock because the Democrats are bickering right now. But the longer this drags out the more I want to vote for Nader. I'm just getting sick and tired of all of them.

[TheMissing]

Originally Posted by ohio_eric

I'm not sure if McCain is a lock because the Democrats are bickering right now. But the longer this drags out the more I want to vote for Nader. I'm just getting sick and tired of all of them.

(except on the Nader vote )

I'd really like to see Obama get the nod, but if it were hillary, I'd vote for her anyway, because I can't stand McCain. At the very least, I want to use the tiny bit of democratic power I have to give the finger to the Republicans.

[metalheadpunk]

Originally Posted by ohio_eric

. But the longer this drags out the more I want to vote for Nader.

and effectively vote for mccain?

with obama pretty much guaranteed north carolina, and probably indiana too (look at his results in the midwest...dominating!) the fact that he closed the gap so significantly in PA should mean that at the end of june he'll have a good enough grip on the lead to :hopefully: sway the rest of those damn superdelegates.

[Lee]

I mean, this is more or less what we expected. Granted, Hillary was up 20 or so when this all started, but we cut that in half, so I see that as a victory for us. I think the biggest remaining test we have is North Carolina (heh) because we're up anywhere from 10-15, so it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. I know I'm doing my part

[xXxPriestessxXx]

I wish Hillary would just accept that it is over for her and bow out. That being said we all know that will never happen. The high road in politics is never taken. Anyway, I want Obama to get the nomination. I would have a very hard time voting for Clinton because I think her campaign is based more on trying to be a better President than her husband. We have just been through 8 years of someone trying to be better than their father. We all know how that worked out and I don't want to go through that again. Plus I have never known a President in my life time that wasn't a Bush or Clinton. Change is necessary.

[Drew]

Nader's a moron. The longer this goes on, the better his chances of actually getting enough votes together to hamstring the Democrats again.

I will say that Clinton did better than I expected her to - I'd figured a 6% margin, and taking 150-175k off Obama's popular vote lead. Instead, she got about 10% and a nearly 210k margin.

The irony of course is that this more or less seals her defeat, all her talk to the contrary; the elected delegate count is insurmountably in Obama's favor, and inclusive of last night's results, Obama still has a 600,000 margin in the popular votes. With about 9 million voters still outstanding, Clinton will need to carry every single remaining race by an average of almost 8% to win this, and barring maybe West Virginia and Kentucky this is the last state where Clinton had a clear demographical advantage. In short, she needs to rack up massive margins in those to states while holding Obama to slim margins, and I don't think she can.

If she loses the electoral vote and the popular vote, then she doesn't have a case to fight for the nomination. Especially considering Clinton's supporters are primarily the elderly and Obama's are the youth and african americans, the risk of slighting Obama's supporters does MUCH more long term damage to the party than giving the election to Obama on the grounds he won both the popular and electoral votes.

Also, I don't buy this talk about Obama being "unable to finish the deal." Saying so presupposes there's a direct linear correlation between one primary and the next, where if you won the previous you have an advantage in the second. That's absolutely NOT the case. In the last couple primaries where Obama hasn't "closed the deal," he's been campaigning in states where Clinton has a strong demographic advantage - Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where her support amongst working class blue collar whites and latinos has due to numbers counted a lot more than Obama's support from the white collar educated whites and the youth/african american votes. Additionally, I would argue the reverse is true where it's actually been harder for him to "close the deal" because Clinton has explicitly been making the argument to "not decide this just yet - you don't have to vote for me, but don't vote me out just yet," and playing off insecurity to keep this election going a little longer. It's an argument that, if exit polls can be believed, has worked - voters aren't sure if they want Clinton, but they're also not quite ready to commit to Obama.

Basically, I'm getting sick of listening to commentators talking about "momentum" in this race - these are 50 seperate primaries, and while we call this a "race" it's not like winning one gives you a head start in the other.

[Drew]

Originally Posted by Lee

I mean, this is more or less what we expected. Granted, Hillary was up 20 or so when this all started, but we cut that in half, so I see that as a victory for us.

Well, that's the thing. Obama was back by about 20 points in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, states with demographic groups where by rights he should have gotten blown out. Ohio and Pennsylvania he cut to ten percentage points, and Texas he actually WON the delegate vote and only lost the popular vote by about a percent or two. I mean, benchmark that against the vote you would expect from the demographic makeup of the states, and that's actually a net gain of about 36-38% for Obama in Clinton territory.

It's just the way this is being talked about, as if it's a horserace, is missing the fact that just because he was ahead overall come the Texas/Ohio primaries doesn't give him a leg up in those particular states. Arguably the reverse thanks to Clinton's "let's not decide this yet" stance, and the fact he's narrowed this up as much as he has in Clinton territory is pretty impressive.

[ohio_eric]

I was kidding about Nader people. Though I would hardly call him a moron.

The longer this drags out the more likely the worst case scenario plays out. That would be Clinton goes to the convention behind in the popular vote and elected delegates and still get the nomination. That would drive away a lot of young and black Obama supporters that only voted because the were so behind him. That would cost the Democrats dearly in November.

Also Priestess made a good point that the Clinton/Bush/Reagan era has got to die and the sooner the better.

[metalheadpunk]

Originally Posted by ohio_eric

The longer this drags out the more likely the worst case scenario plays out. That would be Clinton goes to the convention behind in the popular vote and elected delegates and still get the nomination.

exactly. and the entire democratic process is completely undermined.