So, as you know, I've been tracking trends in the Superdelegate Race

Drew · 03-04-2008, 11:33 AM

It's been a little while (almost a month) since I added new source data to my charts, so this morning I took ten minutes and added daily totals since 2/13. this is where we stand now. The red lines are Obama:

I think we can all agree that the superdelegate picture is VERY different today than it was after Super Tuesday. I believe the actual lead Clinton has in superdelegates is down to fewer than 40, and Obama has just dominated her for the last month.

Honestly, while she'll take it as a major PR win, even if she does somehow win both Texas and Ohio tonight, I'm no longer sure if that will be enough.

ohio_eric · 03-04-2008, 11:52 AM

Clinton mathematically is toast. She would have to start winning by big margins to even catch up to Obama and right now that doesn't look likely.

Plus the buzz is now that the superdelegates are unwilling to go against the popular vote.

Drew · 03-04-2008, 11:59 AM

Well, the numbers support that, even just the way they're coming out right now.

Honestly, Clinton needs to win BIG tonight to stay a serious contender, and I don't think she can.

The problem is, she needs to lose big before she'll admit that.

ohio_eric · 03-04-2008, 12:13 PM

Clinton and Huckabee are starting to look very similar. Neither one of them can admit defeat.

I really hope Ohio and Texas both go Obama's way just so cable news can talk about something else.

TheMissing · 03-04-2008, 12:26 PM

As much as I want Obama to win, I had a dream the other night where someone told me "Clinton will probably win Texas. If she happens to lose, then it will be by a small margin." Then I woke up.

So i'm still kinda freaked out for some reason... I guess we'll find out soon enough.

Drew · 03-04-2008, 02:22 PM

Really? Ohio is the one where she's got the best chance, IMO...

Just eyeballing it though, Obama's superdelegate count is a near-exponential curve, whereas Clinton's seems to be tracking a sine wave that's on the decline. If we assume the superdelegates to vote on where the smart money has the outcome falling, then Clinton's in a tighter corner than the media suggests.

noodles · 03-04-2008, 03:30 PM

That is a trend I've been watching for a month now, Drew. Obama pulled ahead in the pledged count long ago, and has been gobbling up her lead on the superdelegate count. The superdelegates are seeing the writing on the wall, and throwing their support behind Obama. At this point, I don't see how she can recover he momentum. This is the last big day in the primary season, and she is not going to get the kind of numbers she needs. She has to see that continuing past today is only going to improve the chances that her party loses the White House in November.

In related news, that fat piece of shit Rush Limbaugh is calling for his listeners to go vote for Clinton in the Texas primary, just to keep the "soap opera" going on for as long as possible.

YYZ2112 · 03-04-2008, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by noodles

In related news, that fat piece of shit Rush Limbaugh is calling for his listeners to go vote for Clinton in the Texas primary, just to keep the "soap opera" going on for as long as possible.

This I just don't get. I mean understand his tactics but Rush in general just slays me at times. He's been backing Clinton for awhile now and I can't see how even his most loyal listeners will actually cross party lines.

I just hope Obama can take Texas and keep it close in Ohio. Then I'll just need to ignore Hillary while she claims that momentum is back on her side. I can't see her walking away from this no matter what happens tonight but it should really be the end of the road for her for all intents and purposes........ I hope.

noodles · 03-04-2008, 04:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by YYZ2112

This I just don't get. I mean understand his tactics but Rush in general just slays me at times. He's been backing Clinton for awhile now and I can't see how even his most loyal listeners will actually cross party lines.

Oh, I think you're missing his point. He was asking his Republican listeners to vote for Clinton, because the ongoing race will benefit McCain. He actually said that.

YYZ2112 · 03-04-2008, 05:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by noodles

Oh, I think you're missing his point. He was asking his Republican listeners to vote for Clinton, because the ongoing race will benefit McCain. He actually said that.

I know. I shouldn't have used the word "backing". Although I don't think he's all too thrilled with McCain.

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03-04-2008, 11:52 AM	#2 (permalink)
ohio_eric He loves you Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Ohio Posts: 7,551 Main Seven: Schecter Jeff Loomis Sig Rig: Boss GT-8 Thanked: 150	Clinton mathematically is toast. She would have to start winning by big margins to even catch up to Obama and right now that doesn't look likely. Plus the buzz is now that the superdelegates are unwilling to go against the popular vote. The only proof he needed for the existance of God was music. Kurt Vonnegut Jr. Without music, life would be a mistake. Friedrich Nietzsche

03-04-2008, 12:26 PM	#5 (permalink)
TheMissing Sugar Bush Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: South Jersey Posts: 4,950 Real Name: Chris Main Seven: Schecter Gryphon7 (W/BKP) Rig: 5150 II-Swamp Thangs Thanked: 148	As much as I want Obama to win, I had a dream the other night where someone told me "Clinton will probably win Texas. If she happens to lose, then it will be by a small margin." Then I woke up. So i'm still kinda freaked out for some reason... I guess we'll find out soon enough. In any language that you learn to speak -- love is twisted and defined as weak TheMissing's GAScon status: GAScon 3... New geetar... But now I need to find a new pickup...

03-04-2008, 03:30 PM	#7 (permalink)
noodles I'm your huckleberry • Super Moderator • Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Woodbridge, VA Posts: 21,623 Real Name: Dave Main Seven: KxK V7 - The Emo Killer Rig: Roadster/GMaj/4x12 Thanked: 281	That is a trend I've been watching for a month now, Drew. Obama pulled ahead in the pledged count long ago, and has been gobbling up her lead on the superdelegate count. The superdelegates are seeing the writing on the wall, and throwing their support behind Obama. At this point, I don't see how she can recover he momentum. This is the last big day in the primary season, and she is not going to get the kind of numbers she needs. She has to see that continuing past today is only going to improve the chances that her party loses the White House in November. In related news, that fat piece of shit Rush Limbaugh is calling for his listeners to go vote for Clinton in the Texas primary, just to keep the "soap opera" going on for as long as possible. Noodles Division: American Metal without the suck. sales@kxkguitars.com "Somewhere along the way, the Straight Talk Express lost some wheels..." --Barack Obama on John McCain

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03-04-2008, 11:59 AM	#3 (permalink)
Drew Fear the Polo! • Super Moderator • Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Somerville, MA Posts: 29,146 Real Name: Call me Ahab... Main Seven: 1991 Ibanez UV7PWH Main ERG: Sherman 5-string bass Rig: Mesa Recto-verb 50 Thanked: 139	Well, the numbers support that, even just the way they're coming out right now. Honestly, Clinton needs to win BIG tonight to stay a serious contender, and I don't think she can. The problem is, she needs to lose big before she'll admit that.

03-04-2008, 12:13 PM	#4 (permalink)
ohio_eric He loves you Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Ohio Posts: 7,551 Main Seven: Schecter Jeff Loomis Sig Rig: Boss GT-8 Thanked: 150	Clinton and Huckabee are starting to look very similar. Neither one of them can admit defeat. I really hope Ohio and Texas both go Obama's way just so cable news can talk about something else.

03-04-2008, 02:22 PM	#6 (permalink)
Drew Fear the Polo! • Super Moderator • Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Somerville, MA Posts: 29,146 Real Name: Call me Ahab... Main Seven: 1991 Ibanez UV7PWH Main ERG: Sherman 5-string bass Rig: Mesa Recto-verb 50 Thanked: 139	Really? Ohio is the one where she's got the best chance, IMO... Just eyeballing it though, Obama's superdelegate count is a near-exponential curve, whereas Clinton's seems to be tracking a sine wave that's on the decline. If we assume the superdelegates to vote on where the smart money has the outcome falling, then Clinton's in a tighter corner than the media suggests.

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So, as you know, I've been tracking trends in the Superdelegate Race