[Abhorred]

Figured I'd open one up before the results start coming in.

Come on, Murderland, don't blow this one. It could very well be the night that Obama levels out with Clinton, which would certainly be a welcome development.

[Drew]

Word is Hillary's already functionally conceeded these, because she's been polling so badly here. Fingers crossed for no surprises.

[noodles]

I haven't heard much yet, but the polls close at 7pm tonight. I'm heading by after work to vote.

[Abhorred]

Hopefully a strong showing in the next few primaries will convince a couple superdelegates to switch sides, but I'm not holding out hope. I think we'll be lucky if we can avoid an all out brawl at the convention...

[noodles]

Obama is leading in the race with delegates, so that alone should be enough to start convincing superdelegates to switch. Remember, the current superdelegate count is based on pledges. They don't actually vote until the DNC, and can switch at any time.

If Obama overtakes Clinton, even with the pledged superdelegates factored in, then expect superdelegates to start switching sides. Most Democrats understand that the harm caused by a brokered convention will go a long way towards handing the GOP the White House for four more years. This is the Democrat's race to lose.

Mainly, people don't want to see the superdelegates decide the nomination. If Clinton pulls back ahead in the regular delegate count, then people won't be complaining if she wins the nomination. If she wins only due to the superdelegates, it will be an utter disaster. I'm also expecting her to demand that the delegates from Florida and Michigan be seated, since that would help her out. While not counting those delegates was the stupidest decision Howard Dean has ever made, to go back on that, swinging the balance of the contest in the process, would be a horrible move, not to mention completely unfair. Who knows how the chips would have fallen if the candidates were actually allowed to campaign there?

No one wants to see a DNC brokered convention, excpet the Republicans. No good can come from it. Howard Dean has been stating that some sort of deal will be struck, but will say no more. I think the "deal" would involve pressuring the candidate trailing coming into the convention to conceed, and I'm assuming that includes the superdelegate count. Honestly, I cannot see either candidate doing this, which means there is no way to avoid a brokered convention. I would expect the Clintons to pull out all the stops, calling in favors with the party seniority, handing out cabinet positions like Halloween candy. Obama would stand absolutely no chance, and the outrage would be fierce. This would spell disaster, since the GOP will be fielding the most moderate candidate in decades. The southern African American vote would more than likely flip back Republican. Many of the white male vote that Obama has been riding high on would also flip in large numbers. McCain would sweep away Clinton like a broom on a kitchen floor.

With Romney or Huckabee, the DNC would stand a chance. Not against McCain.

[Drew]

You know what worries me, Dave? This:



You'd have expected neutrals to be a bit spooked after Obama fighting the Hillary Machine to a standstill on Super Tuesday, but yet she actually surged in the superdelegate count that day, picking up 15 to his 8.

It's tightened up a bit since, but that tells me that a not-insignificant amount of SD's are just looking for an excuse to come out behind Clinton.

[Lee]

Originally Posted by noodles

I'm also expecting her to demand that the delegates from Florida and Michigan be seated, since that would help her out. While not counting those delegates was the stupidest decision Howard Dean has ever made, to go back on that, swinging the balance of the contest in the process, would be a horrible move, not to mention completely unfair.

She more or less already has, and the DNC CAN'T seat the delegates from Michigan, because Obama wasn't even on the ballot. Clinton was the only candidate that was worth anything (sorry Kucinich). Either Michigan needs to have a primary where you can actually vote for either of the candidates, or drop them all together. There can't be any way of doing it otherwise that wouldn't be horrendously unfair.

[Drew]

Originally Posted by Lee

She more or less already has, and the DNC CAN'T seat the delegates from Michigan, because Obama wasn't even on the ballot. Clinton was the only candidate that was worth anything (sorry Kucinich). Either Michigan needs to have a primary where you can actually vote for either of the candidates, or drop them all together. There can't be any way of doing it otherwise that wouldn't be horrendously unfair.

Especially because all the other candidates, as I recall, actively removed themselves from the ballot in Michigan, she has no case there.

Florida on the other hand is a little dicier.