[ohio_eric]

2008 Democratic Convention Watch: Superdelegate Endorsement List

This is an interesting link.

[Drew]

Originally Posted by ohio_eric

Actually it was earlier. After McGovern got torched by Nixon the DNC decided they needed a larger hand in picking the candidate.

Ever read "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail, '72"? I, ironically enough since the '72 election has come up about once a month since, read it maybe a year ago.

If Hunter S. Thompson is to be trusted (and FWIW, I tend to) it was really more McGovern's decicion to play by DNC rules and start looking like a politician and not a straight talker that lost him that race, and not the fact that he wasn't the "party insider" candidate. Really, it was the fallout surrounding his VP.

Either way, if you somehow HAVEN'T read it, I can't recommend it strongly enough. Aside from HST doing what he does best (the "Sunshine Express" anecdote where he loans some guy his press pass who, out of his mind on acid, goes on to singlehandedly derail the Muskie campaign, is absolutely priceless), the actual coverage of the behind-the-scenes manouvering at the convention that got McGovern the nod by actually losing a few procedural question votes is bar-none the best political journalism I've ever read.

[TheMissing]

Super tuesday is truely exciting for me. What sucks is that I thought I was registered to vote, but it turns out i'm not, so I can't cancel my moms hilary vote

So for now I have to just sit back and watch things pan out. Wednesday morning is going to be interesting indeed, especially with Edwards out of the race. IMO Edwards was more like Obama than Hillary, so that bodes well for Obama.

We'll see...

[Drew]

Originally Posted by ohio_eric

2008 Democratic Convention Watch: Superdelegate Endorsement List

This is an interesting link.

Hmm. Interesting. It took me a few seconds to find the summary, but it looks like Clinton's winning the super-delegate battle by almost 2:1, 209-118. With 796 super delegates at large, that translates to about 450 for Clinton (796/1.77), with the remaining 346 for Obama, if current ratios hold.

I'll make the following two guesses:

1.) 100 votes is no immaterial margin on a race this close, but it's certainly one that can be overcome, and
2.) These ratios will NOT hold constant. If Obama begins to pull away, then two things will happen - one, he will begin to get a higher percentage of super delegate votes, as more people decide he's the favorite and they want to be on the winning side, and two, he will need these votes less. The reverse is also true, of course.

We've got maybe a little over 1/3 of the superdelegate votes in at this point - I'd almost say that based on the positioning now, they'll certaintly have a "leveraging" effect on the next few weeks where anyone who picks up a delegate edge will pick up a higher superdelegate edge, as well, but most likely the super delegates will NOT decide this election alone.

[Metal Ken]

Originally Posted by ohio_eric

2008 Democratic Convention Watch: Superdelegate Endorsement List

This is an interesting link.

thats kinda disheartening, honestly. :/

[noodles]

Originally Posted by Drew

I'll make the following two guesses:

1.) 100 votes is no immaterial margin on a race this close, but it's certainly one that can be overcome, and
2.) These ratios will NOT hold constant. If Obama begins to pull away, then two things will happen - one, he will begin to get a higher percentage of super delegate votes, as more people decide he's the favorite and they want to be on the winning side, and two, he will need these votes less. The reverse is also true, of course.

Your predictions are pretty much in line with the top political analysts. Nearly twice as many superdelegates are pledging to vote for Clinton, but that will certainly change if Obama begins to pull away. The outrage would be huge if Obama won the regular delegates by a comfortable margin, only to lose by hair due to the superdelegates. However, if it remains this close, then expect Clinton to win. Obama will have to make a better than strong showing to take this one away from Clinton, and frankly, I don't see it happening. I also put the odds between her and McCain at about even, which is beyond disheartening.

If it is one thing Democrats are good at, it is picking the person they want, and not the person that is electable. John Kerry, anyone?

[Drew]

Um, don't they get paid money for this stuff? I just drink beer and sit in front of a computer all day, and have a intuitive sense of what numbers should do.

If I had a little more time, I'd love to chart out how that ratio has been changing and see if there are any conclusions that could be drawn from that.

It's tough - I'm glad McCain is winning, because I'd vastly prefer him to any other Republican candidate. However, in a general election, that comes back to bite me in the ass, because a lot of independents feel the same way, and Clinton might as well be a republican.

EDIT - ok, you can download a "sortable" list of SD's, but it's not indexed by date they declared.


These numbers change SUBSTANTIALLY in Obama's favor if even a modest number of the declared Clinton delegates did so in, say, August or September.

[Uber Mega]

Obama <3

The world needs the sort of change that neither a Republican nor another Clinton can bring.

[Drew]

Ok, this is more promising.

This site had been keeping track of daily updates since 1/11. So, I charted all changes from 1/11/08 thru 2/04/08, a period of about a month.



First, Obama actually gained MORE superdelegates in the last 1 month than Clinton, 39 to 38. that in itself is very encouraging. As they are polling neck and neck, I'm going to hazard that (without more data) most of Clinton's edge came from when she was considered a done deal, and that Clinton will, unless she begins to pull away with the delegate count, ad no further margin to her lead.

Second, two candidates dropped out during this period - Kucinich on 1/24, and Edwards on 1/31. Clinton got a slight boost immediately after Kucinish left, while Obama got a more visible boost immediately after Edwards dropped out, though Clinton has since closed that some.

As Edwards had about 30-odd pledged superdelegates, that means there's still a number of them who haven't re-declared. Considering Clinton was supposed to have double the edge amongst Edwards supporters as Obama, it's telling we saw this immediate jump on Obama's delegate count, and not Clinton's.

Either way, the picture in the last month is WAY better for Obama than the totals would suggest.

[Drew]

Originally Posted by Drew

As Edwards had about 30-odd pledged superdelegates, that means there's still a number of them who haven't re-declared. Considering Clinton was supposed to have double the edge amongst Edwards supporters as Obama, it's telling we saw this immediate jump on Obama's delegate count, and not Clinton's.

In fact, I think I'm going to go on the record saying I think the pundits are wrong about Edwards supporters preferring Clinton to Obama by almost a 2:1 ratio. It's tough to make claims like that based on top-down stats especially as these are active politicians and not casual observers, so this isn't a true representative sample, but...